2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips
What a nightmare Friday was. As soon I saw Tears Of A Clown pulling like a see you next tuesday in the first couple of furlongs I had a bad feeling about the day. Every one of my tips ran absolutley shite and we ended up blanking. The only positive was seeing Matilda Picotte’s demolition job and I can’t wait to see her in a G1 at some stage. If you are looking for some losers on Saturday, check out our 2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting tips below.
1.15 York – Rockingham Stakes (Listed)
As you might imagine, confidence is at rock bottom right now. This has been one of the worst runs I’ve had since starting in this game six years ago but it has to turn around at some point, right? The one I’m going to rely on for redemption in this Listed heat is Jehangeer.
We have already backed this horse this season, in the Gimcrack here over today’s trip of 6f. He found things happening a bit quickly on his first try in stakes company and he could only finish 7th, 8.5L behind the winner. It was the quickest ground he has run on too and that may have also been a factor in his poor performance.
This horse is bred to go on soft ground. He is a full brother to the G1 winning sprinter Hello Youmzain, a three time winner on ground with soft in the description. Tom Eaves, on board for this lad’s first two wins, returns to the plate and he teamed up with Kevin Ryan to land a big pot here on Friday. Hopefully they can repeat the trick with Jehangeer at odds of 25/1.
2023 York Saturday Tips: Jehangeer e/w @ 25/1
1.25 Newmarket – Autumn Stakes (Group 3)
The market leader Ancient Wisdom has yet to race on soft ground. He came up short in Listed company at Ascot (7f gd) last time and it didn’t look like he was crying out for another furlong. Arabic Legend was also beaten in Listed company last time but he shaped better in that mile contest at Salisbury. His maiden win came on easyish ground at Newmarket and he looks a major player.
Chief Little Rock is one of two Irish raiders. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, this Galileo colt is proven on soft and he has already placed in G2 company at the Curragh (8f yld/sft). Ambiente Friendly and Per Contra have both won on soft ground but they are tackling pattern company for the first time. This is a very tricky looking race and one I’m happy to swerve. No bet.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: No bet
2.00 Newmarket – Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
Sioux Nation had a spectacular winner on the Rowley course on Friday over 7f with Matilda Picotte. Indian Run is by the same sire and Eve Johnson-Houghton’s charge could run well here at odds of 20/1.
This colt has won two of his three starts to date. He landed an Ascot maiden (6f gd) second time out and then followed up at York in a G3. He beat Ballymount Boy 1.5L in that race and while he sort of let the form down next time in France, he was given an idiotic ride from a tactical perspective.
Unfurnished
His trainer reported after York that Indian Run was still unfurnished, which means he hadn’t fully filled into his frame yet. That makes his performance all the more impressive and the 52 day break since that run won’t have done him any harm. The ground is the big unknown but Matilda Picotte relished it so hopefully he does too.
Obviously, City Of Troy is the one to beat on his Newmarket romp last time out. Very soft ground is an unknown but as we saw with Inquisitively on Friday, class horses can usually handle most types of conditions. He’s long odds on though so a small e/w interest on Indian Run at odds of 22/1 is the recommended bet.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: Indian Run e/w @ 22/1
2.25 York – Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage)
Nine of the last ten winners of this race came from single figure stalls. It is a pretty definitive stat but is there any value lurking amongst those drawn low today? The short answer is probably not. Hyperfocus (33s) is hit and miss at York, The Ridler (66s) has done absolutely nowt since we backed him at Ascot and Bielsa (16s) may just need some help from the handicapper.
The horse I’m going to side with caught my eye last time in the Ayr Gold Cup. It Just Takes Time, trained by Mark Walford, may have a 0 beside his name for that run but it was a far better effort than that suggests. He finished 13th but the son of Power was only 3L behind the winner Significantly and 2L off a place in 4th.
Drawn High
It Just Takes Time was drawn out wide that day so the performance probably deserves marking up. You could throw a blanket over the likes of him, Mr Wagyu, Aberama Gold and Bielsa at the line and Walford’s charge arguably finished stronger than all of them.
He has won on heavy and good to soft and placed on soft so the ground shouldn’t be an issue and he’s 1lb below his last winning mark. He’s also a former course winner, over 7f, and he is 4lbs lower than when beat 6L over C&D in July. If Dougie Costello can conjure up a similar performance to the one he produced at Ayr, hopefully It Just Takes Time can finish fast for place money at odds of 40/1.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: It Just Takes Time e/w @ 40/1 (6 places) NB
2.40 Newmarket – Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage)
We have already backed Geremia at 50s for this and the money seems to be coming for him. He’s now a best price of 33s and I’m happy to stick to my guns. In any case, the way things are going I’d stop an irresistible force right now so there is not much point in putting up two losers in the one race.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: Geremia already advised @ 50/1
3.05 York – EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 2)
Not a race I’ll be getting involved in. No bet.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: No Bet
3.15 Newmarket – Zetland Stakes (Group 3)
A pretty pathetic turnout of just five for this 10f G3. Arabian Crown is just about odds against at 6/5 and he is already proven on soft ground. So is Gaspar De Lemos, a Ballydoyle trained son of Justify who won his maiden on yielding to soft at the Curragh last time.
Dallas Star won on soft last time but he probably needs to improve at least a stone on that run. Given the propensity of Andrew Balding’s 2yos to improve hugely from their first to second runs, Dambuster could be the value here at around 5/1. However, those odds aren’t big enough for the blog so we’ll be sitting this one out too. No bet.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: No Bet
3.35 York – Coral Handicap (Class 2)
Our 100/1 Cambridgeshire fancy Carolus Magnus now pitches up here. He was an extremely unlucky 9th in that contest and it wasn’t Jimmy Sullivan’s finest hour. The problem for him today is the rain softened ground. He was twice taken out of races on account of easy ground when with Andrew Balding so I’d be treading carefully with him after the rain.
One horse that will enjoy the testing ground is Certain Lad. Jack Channon’s son of Clodovil likes York. He won a G3 here in August 2020 and incredibly, that’s the last time he won. He’s been highly tried at times, he has run some massive races in defeat and the handicapper has finally given him a chance.
The 7yo has now dropped to a mark of 100, 7lbs lower than when beat 2.5L by Pride Of America at Chester in May. He was only beat 2.5L on bottomless ground off 101 last time out at Newbury and on his penultimate start at Sandown (10f gd) he was beat 4.5L into second by the well handicapped Dual Identity.
With George Bass claiming 3lbs he is effectively in off 97 here, 3lbs lower than his last handicap win at Meydan (and 1lb lower than his last UK handicap win). If he can show the same form as he did at Sandown and Chester this season, Certain Lad can run a huge race at odds of 10/1.
2023 Newmarket Cesarewitch Meeting Tips: Certain Lad e/w @ 10/1 (4 places) NAP
3.50 Newmarket – Darley Stakes (Group 3)
The final live race on ITV is this 9f Group 3. The Crisfords supply the fav, the 3yo Knight, and he has gone very close behind two top class operators on his last two starts. Chindit beat him a head at Sandown last time (8f sft) and Angel Bleu was 0.5L too good for him on his penultimate start at Goodwood (8f sft). This ground is ideal for him and he is the clear form pick.
That is reflected in his odds though and I think Padishakh is worth chancing e/w as an alternative. Now trained by Roger Varian, David Egan gets the leg up for the first time. This horse has been gelded since his last run, a decent 5th in a Deauville G3. He had shown some excellent form earlier in the campaign, including a fine second to Big Rock in a Longchamp G3.
Easy Ground
The son of Wootton Bassett has twice won on easy ground so conditions at HQ hold no fears. He’s rated 104, which means he needs a career best to trouble the principals, but the fact he has been gelded could elicit the necessary improvement.
The first time hood is another interesting addition and it suggests that this fella hasn’t had his mind on the job in previous runs. On the evidence of his last run the step up to 9f looks the right move and he gets 4lbs from his older rivals. Roger Varian’s horses are generally running well so at 16/1, Padishakh is the e/w selection.
