2023 NFL Week 1 Regular Season Preview & Tips

It has felt a lot longer than seven months since the Superbowl and the end of the NFL season. It was the Chiefs who prevailed in a thrilling tussle with the Eagles, with just three points separating the two teams at the finish. Our resident NFL guru Jan Keys has been keeping a very close eye on proceedings during the off season and he is back with his 2023 NFL Week 1 Regular season betting picks this week.

We’ll have a preview for every single Gameweek this season and we will also be covering the playoffs. Jan likes to stick mostly to spread and total points betting, but he also posts an occasional player prop bet for the major matchups. Make sure to follow us on Twitter @TXMarkets to ensure you get Jan’s tips as soon as they are posted every week.  

2023 NFL Week 1: Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

On Sunday afternoon the Atlanta Falcons host the Carolina Panthers in an NFC South clash. Last season the Atlanta Falcons had a losing 7-10 record and they finished last in the division. The Panthers finished with an identical 7-10 record and both franchises fell well short of the playoffs.

This is the start of a new era for the Panthers. Frank Reich took over as head coach in the off-season and they have a brand new QB too, Heisman Trophy winner and number one draft pick, Bryce Young. They also added Miles Sanders (RB), Hayden Hurst (TE) and WRs DJ Chark and Adam Thielen.

New Faces

Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has also got lots of new faces on his roster. They strengthened in multiple areas, signing Jessie Bates III (S), linemen Onyemata and Calais Campbell and they also signed WR Mack Hollins. Third round draft pick last year Desmond Ridder is set to start at QB.

Jan Keys thinks the Falcons can get off to a winning start and they can cover the 3.5 point spread in the process.

Moneyline Odds: Panthers 2.640 – Falcons 1.543

2023 NFL Week 1 Tip: Falcons to win -3.5 points @ 1.95*

2023 NFL Week 1: Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

Two teams that both endured difficult and losing campaigns last year get their seasons underway at the Superdome this Sunday. They both slumped to 7-10 and neither team made the playoffs.

The Saints head coach Dennis Allen is entering his second season and more will be expected from his team. It was always going to take time to transition after the long reign of Sean Payton and he’ll be desperate to get off to a winning start.

Fresh Faces

The Saints have a new QB in the shape of former Raider Derek Carr. They lost no less than ten players in free agency and they have included all of their seven draft picks in their final roster. They’ll also welcome back TE Jimmy Graham into the fold after a year out of the game. However, the Saints’ new look defense could hold the key to success for them not only in this match, but throughout the season.

As for the Titans, it is hard to know what to expect. Mike Vrabel is heading into his fifth season and 2022 was the first time he had a losing record (7-10). If the Titans get off to a slow start this year, the pressure will ramp up. They can still call on star RB Derrick Henry and the addition of Deandre Hopkins will delight QB Ryan Tannehill.

However, it might take time for Hopkins and Tannehill to gel and Jan thinks the Saints look in better shape at this early stage of the season. Back the Saints to cover the 3 point spread at odds of 1.877.

Moneyline Odds: Saints 1.58 – Titans 2.53

2023 NFL Week 1 Tip: Saints to win -3 points @ 1.877*

2023 NFL Week 1 Total Points Tips

As well as his two spread bets, Jan Keys has a quartet of Total Points bets for GW1.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions TNF

The Chiefs are 1.47 on the moneyline to beat the Lions. With Patrick Mahomes pulling the strings they should win, but there may not be as many points as the oddsmakers expect.

Star TE and one of Mahomes’ main targets, Travis Kelce, is a major doubt with a knee injury. They combined for 110 receptions, 1338 yds and 12 TDs last season so without Kelce in the team, Jan Keys reckons the under is the way to go.

2023 NFL Week 1 Tip: Chiefs v Lions Under 52.5 points @ 1.943*

Cleveland Browns v Cincinnati Bengals

If the moneyline odds are correct, this is going to be a pretty tight affair. The Browns are underdogs at 2.23, while the Bengals are 1.735 and they are favoured by 2.5 points on the spread. The Bengals had a brilliant season last year, finishing 12-4 and topping the AFC North. The Browns finished bottom of the division with a 7-10 record.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is reportedly nursing a calf injury and even if he does start, will he be his usual self? Jan Keys thinks this could be a low scoring affair, so back the under.

2023 NFL Week 1 Tip: Browns v Bengals Under 47 points @ 1.970*

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

The bookmakers make the Broncos clear 3.5 point favourites to win this game and they are 1.531 on the moneyline. The Raiders are underdogs at odds of 2.680. The Broncos had a season to forget in 2022, finishing last in the AFC West with a 5-12 record. The Raiders didn’t fare much better going 6-11 and they have a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo.

Denver appointed former Saints’ head coach Sean Payton in the off season and he’ll be looking to Russell Wilson to find his form after an underwhelming first season. Jan Keys is of the opinion that these teams are capable of racking up more than 43.5 points, so back the over in this one.

2023 NFL Week 1 Tip: Broncos v Raiders Over 43.5 points @ 1.847*

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

The LA Chargers are 3 point favourites to make a winning start to the season. They are 1.653 on the moneyline with the Dolphins priced up at 2.37. The Chargers went 10-7 in 2022, finishing 2nd in the AFC West before losing out by a point to the Jaguars in the Wildcard Round. The Dolphins went 9-8 and they also exited at the same stage, losing 34-31 vs the Bills.

Last year when these two teams met here it finished 23-17 in favour of the Chargers. The Dolphins possess a serious weapon in Tyreek Hill and this match could hinge on whether the Chargers can contain him and Jaylen Waddle. The total points line has been set at 50.5 points and in the last 19 meetings between these teams, only once have they amassed more than 50.5 points. Jan Keys fancies history to repeat itself, so back the under.

2023 NFL Week 1 Tip: Chargers v Dolphins Under 50.5 points @ 2.000*

*All odds provided by Pinnacle

-JanKeys