2023 Open Championship Preview & Tips – JP
2023 Open Championship Golf Betting Preview
The 2023 Open Championship, the 151st renewal, returns to Royal Liverpool Golf Club, Hoylake on the west coast of England.
The course is a 7383 par 71, which is relatively short by modern standards for a par 71. Links courses play shorter due to the bouncy nature of the turf, especially if there has been a prolonged spell of hot, dry weather.
The course’s defences are its penal fairway bunkers. Get in one of them and a dropped shot is likely. The rough is deep, like knee deep or higher, and that is only a few yards off the fairway.
Wet Weather
The British Summer abruptly stopped at the end of June. Pictures of the course back then showed a parched brownscape of sunburnt turf, but in the last couple of weeks the weather has been wet and cool.
The turf is now lush and green and the real fire has been taken out of the course. That will make it play a little longer but a little easier for the players. There are a lot of internal out of bounds on the course, cross the white posts and it is shots dropped.
Overall the course is one of the easiest on the Open rota. It is largely flat so there are no blind shots or hidden hazards. What you can see is what there is. Avoid the bunkers, keep on the fairway, keep it in bounds and you can score low.
Changes Made
There have been changes made since the Open was last here in 2014. The two closing par 5s, the 15th and 18th, have had the tees moved back to add distance. The out of bounds on 18th has been moved in 20 yards and it is a much tighter driving hole.
There is a new 17th hole. A 140 yard par three with a small, raised green, surrounded by bunkers and deep run off areas. It is getting mixed reviews but the idea is that you need to find the putting surface, otherwise you are in bother. It’s designed to be played into the prevailing wind and the feedback is that it is very tough. It is a potential card/tournament wrecker.
Will The Wind Blow?
Like all links courses, its real defence is the weather, and more particularly the wind. The forecast for the four days of the championship is good in that it is pretty consistent, morning and afternoon.
The first two days will be largely dry but with the chance of light showers on Friday morning. Saturday looks to be wet in the morning but slowly improving in the afternoon. Sunday sees sunshine and showers with the breeze picking up for the leaders.
Temperatures will be on the cool side at 16 -19 degrees and the wind moderates at 12 mph, gusting to 20. Sometimes the weather is so different between morning and afternoon, that the draw is crucial, but this year, it looks like nobody is going to really lose out by having a late/early or early/late draw.
Par 5s Pivotal
Scoring should be low and in the last two visits to Hoylake, scoring well on the par 5ss has been crucial.
When Tiger Woods won here in 2006, he only hit one driver all week. It was long irons off the tee for added accuracy. Famously, he avoided every bunker on the course. He just kept out of trouble and if you find the greens in regulation, you can score.
The course was burnt that year and the ball was running for miles. Rory McIlroy took a more aggressive approach in 2014. The course wasn’t as fiery as in 2006 but it was still risky. He hit nearly 66% of fairways in regulation.
It looks like the bombers will not have it all their own way for a change and the shorter hitters are in the mix.
Recent form is as important as ever but with this being one of the ‘fairer’ links courses, perhaps previous Open experience isn’t as important as it might be. It looks set up to be an open Open.
2023 Open Championship: Ante Post Selections
On the back of winning the Scottish Open, or stealing it from Robert McIntyre (guess who I backed?), Rors will be many peoples pick. He was the winner the last time The Open visited Hoylake, so it is all set up for him to finally get back to major winning form.
Maybe, or maybe not. Only one player has done the Scottish Open – Open Championship back-to-back before. That was Mickelson in 2013. No player has ever won two Opens at Hoylake. And then there is the mental pressure he puts on himself in majors. It has become a great big monkey on his back. At the end of the day it is about the odds of reward and at 8.00 he doesn’t get my vote.
Scheffler Thereabouts
Scottie Scheffler is always there or thereabouts. He has finished top 5 in his last seven tournaments. His Open form only extends to two appearances which resulted in 8th and 21st places.
I would expect him to be very close again and at 10.00 he makes sense for an each bet if you like betting the favourites. If the putter gets hot, then he wins, but the short stick is his one relative weakness.
Jon Rahm makes little appeal at 13.00. His form has dipped and his Open form sees just one top 5 finish.
Smith Back On Song
The defending Champion Cam Smith is back to full fitness and winning form from a couple of weeks ago on the LIV Tour.
Defending a championship is not easy but it has been done twice this century, once by Tiger Woods (2005-2006) and Padraig Harrington (2007-2008). Woods did the double with a St. Andrews – Royal Liverpool combination, the same combination facing Smith.
Smith is a 17.00 shot which makes plenty of appeal. He has the skill set, he has Open form and he has a recent win. What’s not to like, apart from that dreadful Mullet?
2023 Open Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Cam Smith to win The Open @ 19.00 with Boylesports (1/5th the odds 1-8)
Another recent winner who makes plenty of appeal is Ricky Fowler. He was a selection for the US Open and lead after the first day but ended up finishing T5th. A final round 75 was not what was required, but he bounced back to win two weeks later.
He warmed up with a 42nd place in the Scottish Open last weekend. He was second here in 2014 and has had three top 10s in The Open in the last ten years.
2023 Open Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Ricky Fowler to win The Open @ 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5th the odds 1-7)
The final pick goes to Colin Morikawa. We backed him to win the 2020 USPGA and he followed that up by winning The Open on his debut in 2021. He missed the cut last year and he did drop off the radar somewhat.
He had four top 10s early in the year and was T10 in The Masters but faded again before finishing T14 in the US Open. The American has not won a title in 2023 but he came as close as possible when losing a play off in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his last tournament.
Certainly his game is coming to the boil at just the right time. He is a major specialist, a proven winner and a former Open Champion.
2023 Open Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Colin Morikawa to win The Open @ 31.00 with Betfred, BET365, Skybet (1/5th the odds 1-8)
There is one first round 3-ball bet which I like. Ewen Ferguson has been playing well on the DP World Tour in 2023. He has had four top 14 finishes from his last six events and he has positive mental associations with the course.
Ferguson won the Boys Amateur Championship here in 2013 and while this is his Open debut, he does know most of the course. He is playing with an out of form Adri Arnaus who has an Open record of MC/78 and has missed three of his six cuts with a high finish of 68th.
The other player is Ketia Nakajima. The former World number 1 amateur turned pro in 2022 but missed the cut in all three majors. He won a tournament in Japan in June but links golf is a different kettle of fish.
