2023 PDC World Championship Darts Preview

The 2023 PDC World Championship of Darts, the 30th renewal, kicks off on 15th December, ending with the 2023 Champion being crowned on 3rd January. The Alexandra Palace in Muswell Hill, London, is once again the venue. Ninety-six players from twenty-eight different countries playing for a share of the £2.5 million prize fund. That prize fund has not increased for the last four years and in real terms, the players are taking a 10% pay cut in the last 12 months alone. I dare say the ticket prices have gone up, so somebody’s having it off. Strike!

Peter Wright is the defending champion and there are seven more former winners in the field. Only three people have ever defended the title, Phil Taylor (ten times), Adrian Lewis and Gary Anderson who was the last player to do so in 2017.

32 Seeds

The 96 players are made up of 32 seeded players who enter at the second round stage. These are the top 32 players on the PDC World rankings. There are 32 players made up of the top 32 on the pro tour OOM not already qualified. There are a further 32 players who qualified in regional qualifiers and satellite/affiliate tours, three women qualifiers and three players who came through the tour card holders qualifying event.

The early rounds can see some big gulfs in class, but the cream usually rises to the top. In the last ten years, the winner has come from the top 20 in the world rankings, eight of the last ten winners have been ranked in the top seven and six have been won by the players ranked first or second. Clearly, it pays to stick to the top seeds when betting on the winner.

Rob Cross was the 20th seed when he won in 2018 but he was the fifth favourite in the betting at around the 15.00 mark at the start of the tournament. He was a moderate surprise rather than a shock winner. The last ten World Championships have seen just fifteen different players making up the list of players to have made a semi-final, so it really is the same old faces who tend to be there at the death.

Previous Winners

The previous winners in the field are Michael van Gerwen (3), Peter Wright (2), Gary Anderson (2), Adrian Lewis (2), Gerwyn Price, Rob Cross and Raymond van Barneveld, who have each won once. Players in this year’s field who have been a runner up without going on to win, are Michael Smith (2) and Simon Whitlock.

Of the last ten winners of the World Championship, all had won at least one ranking event in the previous 12 months and all but Rob Cross and Peter Wright (2020) had won a ranking major in the last 12 months. Wright had won two non-ranking TV majors, the World Series Finals and World Cup. Rob Cross had won two Euro Tour and four pro tour titles. This is not an event where the winner will come from out of the blue. The winner will be someone who is a proven winner and preferably a winner of at least one major title.

Michael van Gerwen was the youngest ever winner at 24 years old. The oldest winner was Phil Taylor at 52 years old. Gary Anderson was the oldest first-time winner at 44 years old.

2022 Major Winners

The list of ranked major winners in 2022 is Danny Noppert, Michael van Gerwen (x3), Ross Smith and Michael Smith. All of those players are ranked in the top 20, Ross Smith being the lowest ranked at 19th (this year’s Rob Cross?). Noppert is 9th and only Michael Smith and MVG are in the top 4 (4th and 3rd respectively).

What of the World number 1 and 2? Gerwyn Price is the number 1 and he has won one non-ranking TV title in 2022, the World Series finals, so he sort of ticks the box. Peter Wright is the number 2 seed, but he has failed to win a TV major title of any sort in 2022. He has won a Players Championship title and a Euro Tour title. Slim pickings for a World Champion.

So there you have it. The final should be between MVG and Michael Smith.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Tip: 1 point Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith to be finalists @ 15.00 with Betfair

That is probably all the preview you need, but I’ll run through the top 32 and notable others, just in case there is a diamond in the dirt.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts: The Top 32 seeds

1. Gerwyn Price

It has been a quiet year by Price’s standards. He was runner up in the World Matchplay, won the World Series Finals, won one Euro Tour title and two Players Championship titles. He was injured earlier in the season but that cleared up some time ago and he just hasn’t been quite at the top of his game. The Iceman has won seven of his last ten and hit seven ton plus averages in those ten, so he remains a serious contender.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 7.00.

2. Peter Wright

Snakebite has not played for a month as he withdrew from the Players Championship Finals due to his wife having post-surgical complications. Like Price, it has been a pretty barren year for Wright and like Price, he has suffered with injury problems in 2022. He has lost four of his last ten matches and is not in great form. Defending champions, outside of Phil Taylor, do not have good records in this and while you can never write him off, the right boxes are not being ticked.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 12.00.

3. Michael van Gerwen

The tournament favourite and going for his fourth World Championship title. MVG has won three ranked TV majors and the Premier League in 2022. He has won eight of his last ten matches and he has the highest 12 month average of anyone in the tournament. He ticks all the boxes. The deserved favourite.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 3.60.

4. Michael Smith

Finally won his first ranking TV major title when winning the Grand Slam of Darts last month. He is a two-time World Championship runner up so he likes the format and if he can make another final, it will be a little easier for him to get it over the line. He is in good form, winning seven of his last ten. We can forgive his first-round exit in the Players Championship as it came just a week after winning his first major and it was probably just too soon for him to hit the high notes again.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 9.00.

5. Luke Humphries

Many people’s idea of a future World Champion and it is a sign of how good a season he has had that he is going into the tournament as the fifth seed. Humphries has already made an impact in the World Championship having reached three quarter finals in the last four years. He has made the semi-final of the last two TV majors, won four Euro Tour titles and a Players Championship, but he has only made one major final, last year’s UK Open. Cool Hand has played well to get to those two recent semi-finals but was a bit flat in both. He has won seven of his last ten matches and remains in good form.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 15.00.

6. Rob Cross

The 2018 World Champion won it on his tournament debut which is very rare. Since then, his tournament record has not been great, and he has not progressed beyond the 4th round. He is a four-time major champion but was having a barren run in this year’s majors until reaching the final of the Players Championship Finals, losing 6-11 to MVG. He has won seven of his last ten matches, but he is still putting in poor performances a little too often to think that he can go all the way.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 34.00.

7. Jonny Clayton

The king of the unranked majors, Clayton has won just the one ranked major, the 2021 World Grand Prix. His World Championship record isn’t great, and his best performance was reaching the fourth-round last year. His win rate in 2022 is 63%, down from 77% in 2021 and that is a fair indication of how his 2022 form has dropped.

The Ferret made the semi-final of the Players Championship finals, but he was far from his best and he has lost that constant heavy scoring that has been his trademark in the last couple of years. He has lost four of his last ten matches and has not hit a ton plus average since late October.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 19.00.

8. James Wade

The best player to have never won a World Championship? Probably. He has played in eighteen but never reached a final. He is a four-time semi-finalist, including last year, but he hasn’t had a good season, reaching just one ranking major quarter-final since his World Championship semi-final. His 2022 win rate is 58%, his lowest ever, and he has only picked up one Players Championship title this season.

That said, he has hit some good form at just the right time, and he has won eight of his last ten matches. The problem is that his scoring isn’t as heavy as the other top players, and he has to rely on clinical finishing to win matches. If that finishing is off, he will struggle to win, and if he plays a heavy scorer who is checking out well, it is the same story.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 101.00.

9. Danny Noppert

A player who has had a good 2022. He won his first ranking major at the UK Open in March and he reached the semi-final of the Matchplay and the quarter finals of the European Championship and Players Championship. That has propelled him into the top 10 in the world rankings. His World Championship record isn’t good, and he has never got beyond the third round. He should be able to improve on that this year.

The Dutchman has upped his consistency which is why his win rate is up to 71%, a career high. Noppert has won seven of his last ten matches and is in good form. He is drawn to face Daryl Gurney or Alan Soutar/Mal Cumming in the third round. He has won his last seven matches with Gurney but has yet to face the other two. It would not be a surprise to see Noppert make the quarter final.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 41.00.

10. Nathan Aspinall

Like Noppert, The Asp has a win rate of 71% in 2022, a career best for him also. He has reached two ranking major finals in 2022, including the recent Grand Slam, but he has lost five of his last ten matches. He is a two-time World Championship semi-finalist but hasn’t got beyond the third round for the last two years. The Asp is a hard one to call. He could make the quarter finals, or he might fall at the first hurdle. Aspinall does love a big crowd and if he starts playing well, he can have good run.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 41.00.

11. Gary Anderson

Very much a World Championship specialist. His whole professional career now centres around this and the Premier League. His motivation for the rest of the year is limited but he always raises his game at Ally Pally. The prize fund is so big that a good run here every year and your place at the top table is reserved.

Anderson is a five-time finalist and two-time winner. His record since 2015 is excellent, only once not making at least the quarter final. He was runner up to Gerwyn Price in 2021, so he is defending £200k in ranking prize money and an early exit could see him drop out of the world top 20. That will be on his mind although I expect he will deny it.

If he doesn’t have another good run not only would his ranking fall, his place in the Premier League would be in doubt, so he is under pressure to perform. His draw is not the worst, but he is scheduled to meet MVG in the quarter finals and that might be his limit. With a seasonal win rate of 51% and losing five of his last ten matches, he may struggle, but this is the World Championship and he is a different player here.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 51.00.

12. Dave Chisnall

Now the best player never to have won a TV major, Chizzy has had a good season and his win rate is a very healthy 72%. That is a career high. He picked up a Euro Tour title and a Players Championship title, his first wins for three years. He failed to get out of the group stage of the Grand Slam and lost his second round at the Players Championship finals, but he is playing well with seven ton plus averages in his last ten matches, of which he has won six.

His best run in the eleven World Championships he has played in is a semi-final in 2021. That means he is defending £100k and an early exit could see him heading out of the top 20. He could well face Andrew Gilding in his opening match and that is a very big banana skin.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 41.00.

13. Joe Cullen

Winner of the Masters at the start of the year, and Premier League runner up, it has been a good season for Cullen. He has reached the quarter final of the last two majors and has won six of his last ten matches. He has played in twelve World Championships but only won five matches. Rockstar has won three of his last five, so things are getting better, but Ally Pally is not somewhere that holds many good memories for him. Getting to the fourth round looks possible but his draw is not the best.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 51.00.

14. Dirk van Duijvenbode

Dirk is building up a good bank of ranking major championship form. In the last three years he has reached one final, one semi-final and five quarter finals. In the World Championship he has reached the quarter final in 2021 and the 4th round last year. The concern is that he is tending to get so far in a big tournament, and then hits a flat spot out of the blue.

Dirk was in frightening form in the recent Players Championship, back-to-back big ton plus averages, but then lost 3-10 to Rob Cross and could only manage 94.6. It was much the same in the Grand Slam, losing 4-10 to Joe Cullen in the 4th round and averaging 93.4. In the 2021 World Championship he folded against Gary Anderson in the quarter final, losing 1-5. Is he developing a mental block?

He has a difficult draw from the word go and a losing quarter final would be a good result. His recent form is OK, winning six of his last ten, and his heavy scoring makes him a dangerous opponent, but he has to be able to keep that up across six matches.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 34.00.

15. Dimitri van den Bergh

Having lost six of his last ten matches, it is hard to get too enthusiastic about Dimitri’s chances. He is a two-time World Championship quarter finalist and has reached the semi-final of the World Matchplay and quarter final of Grand Prix this season, but his recent form sees a lot of inconsistency. Half of his last ten matches saw a checkout rate of 30% or under and that is not going to do at this level.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 31.00.

16. Ryan Searle

Has a very consistent record at Ally Pally, but he has yet to get beyond the 4th round. His record in ranking majors in 2022 has been disappointing. He did OK here and at the UK Open but since then, he has really struggled in the majors. He has lost five of his last ten matches, but there have been encouraging signs that he is getting back to form. Five of his last ten matches saw ton plus averages and his last five matches saw a combined average of 102. He still lost three of them and it is fair to say that his confidence has taken a bit of a knock in 2022.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 71.00.

17. Jose De Sousa

Two third round exits in the last two years is the limit of The Special One’s performance at Ally Pally. He reached the quarter final of the Matchplay in the summer, but his performances in the majors have been poor outside of that. His win rate in 2022 is just 59%, down from 70% for the previous two seasons. Jose has lost six of his last ten matches and he is not the player he once was.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 101.00.

18. Krzysztof Ratajski

After a very consistent season in 2021 which saw the Polish Eagle reach a major semi-final and three quarter-finals, 2022 has seen him lose eight of his thirteen TV matches. His recent form has seen five wins from ten. He is defending £50k from his 2021 quarter final so he is under quite a bit of pressure to protect a top 20 ranking. Ratajski’s win rate has fallen to 56%, his lowest since getting his tour card. His draw isn’t the worst and you can make a case for him making the fourth round, but if he were to meet Peter Wright there, his H2H record is 1-13.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 201.00.

19. Ross Smith

The 2022 European Championship winner has had a very good 2022, or more accurately a very good last few months. Since he won the European Championship, Smith has won six from eleven matches. Three sub 30% checkout rates cost him, and a bit of inconsistency is returning to his game.

He is a very big 180 hitter, ranked 6th for the last 12 months and 2nd for the last three months. That kind of fire power makes him a dangerous opponent and his confidence is high. He has never gone beyond the third round in his five appearances at Ally Pally. He is due to face Dirk Van Duijvenbode and MVG on his way to a possible quarter final, not impossible, but it’s a very tricky draw.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 67.00.

20. Damon Heta

Heta has the third highest 12 month average but has not been able to bring that firepower to the big events. He won the World Cup of Darts alongside Simon Whitlock in the summer, and that has helped the likes of Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price to go on and win this tournament, but his record in the ranking majors is poor.

The Aussie reached the quarter finals of the Players Championship and Grand Slam in his 2020 debut season, but since then he has made just one more quarter final, this year’s UK Open. Since then, he has lost his first-round matches in the Matchplay, Grand Prix, European Championship, Players Championship and failed to get out of the group stage at the Grand Slam. He has never got beyond the 3rd round at Ally Pally. Heta has won on the Euro Tour and Players Championship in 2022, but his TV stage form leaves a lot to be desired.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 67.00.

21. Stephen Bunting

The Bullet is defending quarter final prizemoney from 2021 and is another player who has not enjoyed much success in the ranking majors in 2022. Only in the UK Open did he progress beyond the second round. He has played nine TV matches in 2022 and lost seven. He has won six of his last ten matches and while he should make the third round, he is likely to face Dave Chisnall, against whom he has lost his last eight matches.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 301.00.

22. Chris Dobey

Hollywood has made the fourth round in three of the last four years. He has made a major semi-final and a quarter final in 2022 but his draw means he is likely to face Gary Anderson in the third round and he has only beaten him once in their last eight meetings.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 81.00.

23. Callan Rydz

Reached the quarter final last year and he warmed up for this year’s renewal by reaching the quarter final of the Players Championship Finals, after what has been a disappointing season. His run at the Players Championship may have boosted his confidence but the reality was that he got lucky. He averaged just 89.00 across his four matches with a best of 91.2. His A game is very good, but we haven’t seen much of it since May, when he was runner up in PC15. A likely second round match against Josh Rock is not what he would have hoped for.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 201.00.

24. Daryl Gurney

This will be Superchin’s tenth World Championship, and he has reached two quarter finals in 2017 and 2021. That means he is defending £50k of ranking money. He has lost six of his last ten matches and is struggling to string two wins together. You have to go back to July to find the last time he won more than two matches in a row. The big averages are still there, but the consistency is not.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 151.00.

25. Gabriel Clemens

The German Giant has a poor record in ranking majors, having never reached a quarter final or better. He has lost four of his last first round matches in the majors in 2022 and failed to get out of the group stage in the Grand Slam. He is due to face the winner of the Willy O’Connor vs. Beau Greaves match and I suspect he would rather face O’Connor. Clemens has lost six of his last ten matches and he has been struggling on the doubles.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 301.00.

26. Brendan Dolan

In fourteen previous World Championships, Dolan has only gone beyond the second round twice. There was a quarter final in 2019 and the 3rd round in 2021. His recent form is poor, losing four of his last five matches. He has only won one of his eight TV matches in the last 12 months.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 401.00.

27. Merv King

With a fourth round and quarter final in the last two years, King has picked up decent cash, but his semi-final in 2009 apart, this was never a great tournament for Merv. His win rate in 2022 is 51.5%, a career low. His seasonal average has dropped 3 points to 91.4 and there are few positives to take from this season. King is another player to have lost six of his last ten matches.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 401.00.

28. Vincent van der Voort

Like Merv King, Vincent’s win rate of 54% is a career low. He has lost six of his last ten matches, he usually wins his first-round match here, but it is hard to see much more than that.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 751.00.

29. Martin Schindler

The best player never to have won a match at Ally Pally? Very possibly. He has only played three, but surely he can improve on that unwelcome record this year. He is 19th in terms of seasonal averages and 7th for 180s per leg in the last 12 months. The Wall has won six of his last ten matches but he isn’t in the same kind of great form he was in the spring.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 251.00.

30. Mensur Suljovic

Even at his best, Mensur was never great at Ally Pally. He has never got beyond the third round. His seasonal win rate of 52% is a career low. The Gentle has lost six of his last ten and his behaviour at the Players Championship was bizarre. He faces a tough opener against the winner of the De Decker vs. Jeff Smith match and if he did win that, a probable meeting with MVG.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 251.00.

31. Kim Huybrechts

Kim hasn’t done much here since reaching the quarter final on debut in 2012, but he usually wins a match or two. He has lost five of his last ten matches, there is very little consistency in his game, but he remains a competitor and he could make another third round.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 301.00.

32. Raymond van Barneveld

The 2007 Champion, the 2009 runner up and five-time semi-finalist. Barney rolled back the years to reach the semi-final of the Grand Slam last month and he has won eight of his last ten matches, including beating Gerwyn Price twice. He isn’t the player he was a few years ago, but he can still play and will be fully motivated. He is drawn to play Gerwyn Price in the third round and that would be a very interesting match and one Price will not look forward to.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 81.00.

Best of the Rest

Josh Rock

It must be considered that Rock may be a bit overhyped for this event. Yes, he is the real deal, yes, he is a very special talent and yes, I would be surprised if he doesn’t win it one day. However, let’s take a reality pill.

Josh Rock is still only 21 years old and if he were to win, he would be the youngest winner in the tournament’s history. Records are there to be broken, but he is still very inexperienced. Rock has yet to get beyond the second round of a major championship, he has not yet won a major title and it would be another surprise if he were ‘to do a Cross’ and make the World Championship his first major.

Lacks Experience

Winning it in a tournament debut has been done ten times, but less so recently, so it is not impossible, but unlikely. He has only won one senior PDC title, a Players Championship event in October, and it would be a surprise for a player with so little in the way of titles won to become World Champion.

When Cross won his World Championship, he had already won two Euro Tour titles and four Players Championship titles in that season. Rock is ranked 47th in the PDC rankings and the last ten have been won only by top 20 players and usually by the top 4 ranked players.

Josh Rock doesn’t tick many of the right boxes. He does tick the talented enough to win it box, but so do a lot of other players. The market is making Rock the 17.00 sixth favourite to win the title and, in my opinion, any value in him has long gone.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 17.00.

Beau Greaves

I do not expect Beau Greaves to win the World Championship, not this one at least. She is already the Women’s WDF World Champion and favourite to defend that title next year. However, it will be fascinating to see how far she can go in this, her first PDC World Championship.

Her level of success in Women’s darts has been phenomenal. Her recent form sees no less than 37 consecutive wins. She only started playing in the PDC’s Women’s Series in August, starting with Women’s Series 13. She won that, and WTS14, WTS 15, WTS 16, WTS 17, WTS 18, WTS 19 and WTS 20. In her last 100 matches, she has won 96. This was written before she headed over to Assen for the Women’s World Masters, which of course she won, making it 19 titles won in 2022.

Only 18 Years Old

Beau is only 18 years old! 18 years old and already making Women’s darts a one player sport. Her win rate is 95%. Phenomenal. Taking another reality pill, it must be said that her seasonal average is only 85 and that wouldn’t be good enough to get very far.

However, that average includes matches where she is winning matches 4-0 with a 66 average. Looking at her A game, she beat ‘Queen of the Palace,’ Fallon Sherrock 5-3 in the final of WTS19, averaging 107.8, had a checkout rate of 71% and hit a 148 checkout. That is but an example.

Greaves has not yet stepped up on a PDC stage to play full time pro tour players. This is a few steps up in class and in a new environment. The biggest stage in the sport, the biggest tournament in the sport and the best players in the sport. We don’t know how she will react to that. Nerves will play a big part, but that will be the same for her opponents.

Better Than Sherrock

We saw Fallon Sherrock win two matches here in the 2019 World Championship and Beau is a better player. The novelty factor of having women players in the tournament is wearing off, but if she starts hitting big numbers, she will have the crowd on her side and that will be tough for her opponents.

The very experienced William O’Connor will be her first-round opponent and that will be a proper test. There are easier first round draws that she could have got, but if she can win that, Gabriel Clemens awaits in the second round, and that is a winnable tie. A new ‘Queen of the Palace’? Absolutely.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Odds – 401.00.

There are some fancy odds about for some players who have the talent to win this. James Wade at 101.00 will have his supporters, Rob Cross at 34.00, Danny Noppert at 41.00 all catch the eye, but the record of the top seeds is very strong, and it is likely that the winner will be one of the fancied players at much shorter odds.

I have gone for a MVG vs. Michael Smith final, a repeat of the 2019 championship. It was MVG who won that 7-3 but since then Smith has now got the monkey off his back, winning a major TV title. That will remove the frustration of losing so many and boost his confidence.

Will it be enough to get him over the line should he reach the final? Maybe not, but he will have a much better chance. The fact that he has beaten MVG in their last three matches is another plus. I have opposed Smith in the majors for years, but the time has come to think that he can now convert his talent into winning the biggest prize in the sport. He has reached the final of four of this season’s seven ranked majors and reached the final of this tournament in two of the last four years.

2023 PDC World Championship Darts Tip: 1 point e/w Michael Smith to win the 2023 World Darts Championship @ 9.00 with Betfred (e/w a quarter the odds 1-4)

There is plethora of side markets for this tournament, and I will have a separate preview of the best bets, it will be posted tomorrow.

-JamesPunt