2023 PDC World Championship Side Markets – JP
2023 PDC World Championship Side-Markets
There are plenty of 2023 PDC World Championship side-markets to consider and hopefully some value to be found. You can check out James Punt’s outright winner preview and tips here. His 2023 PDC World Championship side market selections are below.
2023 PDC World Championship: Most Tournament 180s
We need to find the players who have been hitting a lot of 180s recently and who should have a decent run of matches played. Last year it was Michael Smith who hit the most tournament 180s with 83 (a tournament record) and Peter Wright was second on 72, the two tournament finalists.
For the last five World Championships, the player who hit the most 180s was a finalist. Twice it was the runner up, thrice the winner. Michael Smith has been the player to hit the most 180s twice, both times as the runner up. The others have been Price, Wright and Cross, all as tournament winners.
Looking at 180s per leg in TV matches since 1st October, with a min of 100 darts thrown, we get a predictable list. Michael Smith tops the table with 37.4%, followed by Dirk van Duijvenbode 34.4%, Dave Chisnall 34.3%, Ross Smith 33.5% and Peter Wright 33.0%.
We have already backed Michael Smith to be a finalist and if that turns out to be correct, he must have an excellent chance of hitting the most tournament 180s for the third time.
2023 PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Michael Smith to hit the most 180s @ 5.00 with Betfair, Pokerstars
Staying with the 180 theme, Betfair offer a market for players to hit 20 or more 180s in the tournament. There is one player who has done it in four of the last five years and only missed making it five from five by two in 2020. That player is Gary Anderson.
Of active players, Anderson has hit the most 180s in the World Championship (439). It helps that he has such a good record and invariably has a good run every year. The one year he missed out was when he was knocked out in the 4th round in 2020. That was the only time he failed to make at least the quarter final in the last five years, and he has made at least the 4th round every year since 2014.
Anderson has a decent draw. He should beat the winner of the Razma vs. Jiwa and then likely meet Chris Dobey, with whom he has a 8-2 H2H record. A fourth-round clash with Rob Cross is then likely and he has a 14-3 H2H record against him. That would take him into another quarter final and that should be enough time to get to 20 or more 180s.
2023 PDC World Championship Tip: 2 points Gary Anderson to hit 20+ 180s @ 1.91 with Betfair, Pokerstars
Quarter Betting
The draw is divided into four quarters and betting is available on the winner of each quarter, like mini tournaments.
1st Quarter
Not surprisingly, Gerwyn Price is the 2.68 favourite to win this quarter. He has reached the semi-final in two of the last three years and narrowly lost out to Michael Smith in last year’s quarter final, losing 4-5. He has won seven of his last ten matches and while not at his absolute best form, he remains hard to beat.
It is possible that Price will face Raymond van Barneveld in the third round. He would be favourite to win that match, but he has a poor record against Barney and lost to him twice at the recent Grand Slam of Darts. Their H2H record is 8-2 to Barney and in 2022 it is 3-0. Barney is no mug, and he is very experienced in this event.
His best days are behind him, but he can still play and will have 99.9% of the crowd cheering him on. It would be no sure thing for Price. Could Barney win the quarter? He has not done so since 2017 but he has reached seven semi-finals in this event, has won eight of his last ten matches, and reached the semi-final of the Grand Slam a few weeks ago.
Wade And Noppert Possibilities
The other possible winners of this quarter are Danny Noppert and James Wade. Noppert has been going deep in the majors this season, winning the UK Open, reaching the semi-final of the Matchplay and the quarter finals of the European Championship and Players Championship. He has never gone beyond the third round at Ally Pally, but he has a decent draw.
He has a good record against Daryl Gurney but has yet to face Alan Soutar who is in decent form. It is likely that he would face James Wade in the fourth round, and he is 2-0 up on him in 2022. Noppert’s biggest problem is that if he meets Price in the quarter final, Price would be a strong favourite having beaten Noppert in their last four matches, all this year.
Wade has won eight of his last ten matches and won his quarter here last year, his first since 2013. Wade has a decent record against Price, 5-4 up in 2022, a very close record vs. Barney, but Noppert may have done for him before a quarter final can be reached.
Price is the logical choice but that probable third round match vs. Barney is the key to this group. Barney wins that and the quarter is wide open.
2023 PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Gerwyn Price to win the 1st Quarter @ 2.68 with Betfair
2nd Quarter
Michael Smith is the 3.60 favourite to win this quarter. His record at Ally Pally is a bit all or nothing. In the last four years he has either gone out in his opening match, or been runner up. He comes into this in good form having won the Grand Slam, his first major title.
He went out in the first round at the recent players championship but that came just a few days after that big win, and he should be sharper after a couple of weeks off to prepare for the big one. I have already put a few eggs in the Smith basket for this tournament and there is no need to be backing him here.
If Smith does fall early who else is in the frame? Luke Humphries is a three-time losing quarter finalist in the World Championship, but he has stepped up in 2022. He is not defending any ranking money having gone out in the first round in 2021, so no pressure for a player who has reached the semi-final of the last two majors.
Dave Chisnall is drawn to meet Humphries in the fourth round, and he has beaten Chizzy in four of their last five meetings. It could well be a Smith vs. Humphries quarter final and that would be a bit of a coin toss. No bet.
2023 PDC World Championship Tip: No Bet
3rd Quarter
Number 2 two seed Peter Wright heads the quarter. He hasn’t played any competitive darts since being knocked out of the Grand Slam at the group stage in mid-November. That isn’t ideal preparation but more importantly, his wife is now on the mend, and he can concentrate on the job in hand.
It also makes gauging his form more difficult. He won six of his last ten matches, including two group stage wins in the Grand Slam but he was well below his best, averaging under 90 across his three matches. It should be safe to assume that he wasn’t at his best due to his off the oche distractions.
Solid Record
Wright’s tournament record is very good, winning the title in two of the last three years. He has reached at least the quarter final in five of the last nine years and won his quarter in four of the last nine years. His form in the majors this year has been OK, but he hasn’t shown the kind of winning form you would expect from a reigning World Champion.
He has not picked up a TV title of any description, ranking or not and his only two wins were on the Euro tour and the pro tour. His seasonal win rate has dropped to 63.5%, his lowest since 2014. There must be some question marks over his form going into this championship. Other contenders to make to the semi-final from this quarter are Dimitri van den Bergh, Jonny Clayton, Nathan Aspinall and Josh Rock.
Dimitri Struggling For Results
Van den Bergh is a bit of a conundrum. His vital stats are good, very good, but his results poor. His major form in 2022 is not good. He reached the semi-final of the Matchplay but that is a tournament he excels in. Outside of that, only a quarter final at the Grand Prix is of any note. His win rate in 2022 is 60%, which is pretty much in line with where it has been for the last four years.
He has lost six of his last ten matches and it is hard to say why, but he has got into a bit of a losing habit and his confidence isn’t what it has been. Van Den Bergh has reached two World Championship quarter-finals but lost both. He has the game to go far, but he just isn’t jumping out as someone who looks ready to have a big tournament.
Ferret Flattering To Deceive
Jonny Clayton is much the same. His best form has been in the non-ranking majors, runner up in the World Cup, and making the semi-finals of The Masters, Premier League and World Series finals. In the ranking majors, he made the semi-final of the recent Players Championship finals, the 6th round of the UK Open but not a lot else.
His best result in the World Championship is a 4th round exit last year. Recent form sees him winning six of his last ten matches, but his seasonal win rate has dropped from 77% in 2021 (The Year of the Ferret) to 63%, much more in line with his historic form.
The problem with that is he didn’t win much before 2021. His scoring has dropped off and looking at his form here last year, he hit three ton plus averages but still lost his fourth-round match to Michael Smith. He has only hit a ton plus average in 10% of his last 50 matches and he isn’t playing as well as we got used to in 2021.
Asp Will Relish Atmosphere
Nathan Aspinall reached the semi-final here in 2019 and 2020 but has fallen in the third round in the last two. He was injured last year which explains that one. He loves the atmosphere of a big stage event and that brings out the best in him. The Asp has reached two ranking major finals in 2022 and he has to be a serious contender for another good run at Ally Pally.
The biggest concern is that he has lost five of his last ten matches. His seasonal win rate is a career high of 71% and it must be said that his scoring has dropped off in the later part of the season. Just 12% of his last fifty matches have been ton plus averages, and his doubling has been inconsistent. He is not miles away from good form, but he is not at his best. If he can fine tune his game in the lead up, he can be a feature once again, but he does need to find some improvement.
Big Expectations
Josh Rock is now carrying a lot of expectations on his young shoulders. He does carry it well, it must be said, and winning the World Youth Championship will have put an extra spring in his step. He won that with a record breaking 104 average and he is the rookie of the year by some margin. I expect he will be too good for Jose Justicia in the first round, and he then faces an out of sorts Callan Rydz in the second and that is also well within his capabilities.
However, Aspinall in the third round would be a real test. Rock beat Aspinall 6-5 in the European Championship so that could be a close one, but it would be a longer, best of 7 sets match. The fact that Rock has not gone beyond the second round in the four majors he has played in so far suggests reaching the third round might be as far as he goes for this year.
Betfair and Pokerstars have a ‘to reach the Quarter Final’ market and I like the odds for Nathan Aspinall. The Rock tie is the key but if he gets through that, he likely plays Clayton and that would be a coin toss sort of match, so getting 5.50, it seems a risk worth taking.
2023 PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to reach the quarter final @ 5.50 with Betfair, Pokerstars
4th Quarter
This may be the quarter of death. MVG is the top seed in the quarter and notable other seeded players are Dirk van Duijvenbode, Ross Smith, Rob Cross and Gary Anderson. Even a number of the first-round players are dangerous, such as Mike de Decker, Lewy Williams, Scott Williams and Matt Campbell. MVG is the hot 1.90 favourite to reach the semi-final, as he has done in seven of the last ten years. He is very hard to oppose given his form in the majors this year.
In the bottom half of the quarter, I like the chances of Gary Anderson to reach the quarter final. His draw is good, as he has good H2H record against Dobey and Cross, his likely 3rd and 4th round opponents. He has reached the quarter final in six of the last seven years. He is a tournament specialist and I read an interesting stat about him at Ally Pally. Anderson has earned £1015 per leg played in the venue. It is just a massive cash machine to The Flying Scotsman.
