2023 PGA Championship Outright Betting Tips – JP
2023 PGA Championship Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 PGA Championship preview.
2023 PGA Championship – Oak Hill
Often seen as the poor relation in the majors standing, the US PGA Championship used to be the last major of the season but it was getting in the way of the big money end of season tournaments, so it was shifted to its new home in May.
This year the venue is the East Course at Oak Hill Country Club, last used in 2013 when it was won by Jason Dufner. Since then, the course has had a significant facelift. Three holes have been redesigned, all the greens have been re-modelled and the thick green side rough replaced by shaved run off areas.
All the bunkers have been revamped, made to be more of a hazard and something to avoid. The course has been lengthened by 200 yards (it is now a 7394 yard par 70) and most importantly, it has seen the removal of over 500 trees and the widening of the fairways.
Bombs Away
From being a tight, tree lined course back in 2013, it has been opened up to make it much more of a bombers course. The US PGA has tended towards making the venues for this Championship a test of power hitting. Short hitters need not apply. The fact that conditions are set to be cool and soft will mean the course will play long.
The removal of so many trees means that there is much more room to let rip off the tee. The big hitters can now cut the corners of the dog legs and the newly re-designed bunkers will not be in play for the longest hitters. The rough is said to be thick and penal, so some degree of accuracy is needed, but the course changes do seem to play into the hands of the biggest hitters.
Trends
Other trends in this championship are age and first time winners. Nine of the last twelve PGA Championships have been won by a player in their 20s. First time major winners are now the norm. No less than 20 of the last 30 majors have been won by a player picking up their first major. Current form remains very important for obvious reasons.
This course was originally designed by Donald Ross and the recent changes were trying to get back to the spirit of the original design. Success on other Ross designed courses could be a plus.
2023 PGA Championship Favourites
The market is struggling to separate John Rahm and Scotty Scheffler. Clearly, both do not tick the first time winner box but both are in good form and hit the ball a long way. No Spaniard has ever won the US PGA, but seven of the last ten have been American.
Rory McIlroy is the third favourite and he is a two time PGA winner. His problem is that his form is not good and his head was away with the fairies at Augusta. He has the power off the tee to attack the course, but does he believe he can win? I doubt it.
He last won this back in 2014 and he isn’t the player he was. He has excellent form at the Donald Ross East lake GC so the course will likely suit him, but the course, nor the game isn’t the problem. It is the bit between his ears.
Wrist Worry For Spieth
Justin Thomas is another who’s recent form doesn’t cut it, ditto Collin Morikawa. Jordan Spieth had to withdraw last week with a wrist injury which is a worry. Xander Schauffele ticks the first time major winner box.
He always seems to be high up the major leaderboards but his best in the PGA is a 10th place in 2020. He has got good form at East Lake GC, another Donald Ross design, and he very nearly made the final pick list. If he wins, I will be kicking myself, but you can’t back everyone.
Of the top 6 in the betting, the two players I like are Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka.
Impressive Rahm
Rahm was very impressive at Augusta, a course that wasn’t supposed to suit his game. This East Course looks a better fit and he showed some good form at East Lake GC (runner up 2021). It favours a fader of the ball and he is ranked tenth for driving distance. He is a very happy and confident player at the top of his game.
He, like Rory, changed his driver before the Masters, but unlike Rory, it worked for him. A four putt on the first green might have forced a meltdown for Rahm in the past, but he just moved on and won the title. His odds are not big, but it would be a surprise if he wasn’t there or thereabouts come Sunday night. He may have won two majors, but he ticks the under 30 box. He has won four tournaments already in 2023 and he is a beast.
2023 PGA Championship Tip: 1 point Jon Rahm to win @ 9.00 with Betfred, Betvictor, Unibet, Boylesports
Brooks Koepka may have defected to the LIV tour, but he showed that he was both fit and competitive when runner up to Rahm in the Masters. His recent form is excellent, never out of the top 11 in his last five events. Yes, he should have won the Masters and maybe the fact that he is playing in a less competitive series now made a difference, but he has won four majors, including two PGA’s and had three more top 5s in the event. He has the power to thrive on PGA set ups and he is another that should be in the mix on Sunday.
2023 PGA Championship Tip: 2023 PGA Championship Tip: 0.75 point e/w Brooks Koepka to win @ 23.00 with Unibet (1/5 the odds 1-7)
The Chasers
There are a few players just outside of the favourites pack who could join the party.
2015 PGA champion, Jason Day, won last Sunday and his journey back to fitness seems to be complete. Or is it? He crumbled at Augusta on Sunday and cost us what looked like a win in the best Australian market.
It transpired that he suffered an attack of vertigo, and not for the first time. He said that the stress of competing weakened his immune system, which in turn set off the vertigo. Whatever caused it, the fact that he still sufferers from it is enough to avoid him.
Tyrell Hatton has been in good form with back to back finishes of 3rd and 5th in his last two events. He has the distance to tackle the course and he is not quite the smouldering firework he once was. Not quite, but he can unravel a bit too easily at times.
Finau Worth A Punt
The one that I like from the chasers is Tony Finau. He was for so long a nearly man. Playing well but just not winning titles. That has changed and he has now won six tournaments and four in just over 18 months, including the recent Mexican Open. He has had three top 10s in the PGA Championship with a best of 4th in 2020.
Now that he finds winning easier, he might convert a good run into his first major title. He won the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Donald Ross designed Detroit GC and won it by 5 strokes. He has also had two top 10s at Donald Ross’ East Lake GC.
2023 PGA Championship Tip: 0.5 point e/w Tony Finau to win @ 23.00 generally (1/5 the odds 1-8)
The Outsiders
There have been some enormous priced winners of the US PGA in recent history, not least Phil Mickelson in 2021, who was matched at over 500.00 on Betfair. I can’t see anyone at those sort of odds, but there are two who are worth chucking some loose change at.
Adam Scott is too old to tick the under 30 box, he is a major champion, so doesn’t tick the first time winner box, but his form is good, with back to back finishes of 5th and 8th. He is also still very long off the tee and has played in two previous US PGA Championships at this venue.
The changes to the course may make that less relevant, but he finished 5th in 2013. He won the 2006 Tour Championship at Donald Ross’ East Lake, was 6th in 2019 and was runner up in the 2021 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield, another Ross design.
2023 PGA Championship Tip: 0.25 points e/w Adam Scott @ 71.00 with Skybet, BET365, Betfred (1/5 the odds 1-8)
Wyndham Clark is 29 years old, has never won a major, is 9th for driving distance and was a tournament winner in 2023 (Wells Fargo Championship). He has no major form to speak of but there are some hints that he might be one of those US PGA shocks. He was 8th in the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Donald Ross designed Detroit GC in 2022 and 17th in 2019.
Clark sits 6th in the Fed-Ex rankings, is 3rd for total eagles and 3rd for total birdies. He has a good all round game apart from driving accuracy, so maybe the opening up of the course will move it in his direction.
Clark is in great form. He has made his last 16 cuts in a row, won his first tournament two weeks ago and has had three other top 6 finishes in his last six events.
