2023 Qatar GP Outright Betting Preview

After a short break F1 returns this weekend with the 2023 Qatar GP. As ever, our expert James Punt will have qualifying, sprint race and raceday updates on Friday/Saturday/Sunday but first, he has an outright betting preview. Check it out below.

2023 Qatar GP Preview

This will be only the second Qatar GP, the first being back in 2021. The track is floodlit and originally designed for Moto GP. Since F1 was held there in 2021, the track has been resurfaced and the kerbs reprofiled.

The 2023 Qatar GP Track

After the classic Suzuka track in Japan, this is a return to a modern, rather soulless venue in a country that can afford the hosting fees. It is 5.4 km long track built for bike racing.

It is fast and has a reasonable flow to it. There is one long straight followed by 16 corners. It is hard on tyres, with lots of lateral loading, and Pirelli have brought their three hardest compounds.

Most of the corners are medium to high speed with a couple of slower hairpins, two 90 degree right handers and it has similar demands to tracks like Silverstone and Spa, but just not as interesting.

The fact that most of the corners are medium to fast will suit Red Bull and McLaren, not so much Ferrari. The downforce requirements are at the higher end of the scale.

Sprint Race Weekend

This race is another sprint race weekend and there is just the one free practice session before we have the qualifying session for Sunday’s race. The practice session is held during the heat of the day while the qualifying session is under the floodlights and on a cooler track surface.

That gives the teams just one hour to gather data on what is effectively a new track thanks to the resurfacing and kerb changes. This places a premium on getting in as much track time as possible, gathering as much data as possible, both long runs and qualifying sims, and not making any mistakes.

There is plenty of scope for getting things wrong and any ‘peaky’, hard to set up cars could be in bother.

2021 Data Useless

The teams data from 2021 will have been rendered largely useless thanks to the changes to the track surface and kerbs. The fact that we have only had one race here means it is hard to build up any picture, especially as it was in the last year before the ground effect cars came into being.

For what it is worth, Lewis Hamilton won from pole with Max Verstappen (fastest lap) second and Alonso third for Alpine. There were two drivers not classified. Four drivers suffered front left punctures having tried to run a one stop strategy, contrary to Pirelli’s recommendation.

The Weather Forecast

Hot and sunny during the day and hot and dark at night. Zero % chance of rain.

2023 Qatar GP: Team-by-Team

Red Bull

Wrapped up the Constructors’ Championship in Japan and now it is just a matter of time before Max Verstappen wins the Drivers’ Championship. He is 177 points ahead of Sergio Perez and there are only 180 points still up for grabs in the remaining races, including the three sprint races.

If Verstappen is 146 points ahead of Perez after this weekend, he is the champion. He is pretty much nailed on to clinch it this weekend.

Of more interest is our ante post bet for Perez to win ‘without Verstappen’. He is now only 33 points ahead of Lewis Hamilton in second place.

After a decent run, Perez has only scored four points from the last two races. He has been lucky to have the chasing pack taking points off each other and failing fully to take advantage of his malaise.

Perez has now hired a psychologist to try and help him make the most of his situation. We shall have to wait and see how that goes, but he needs to get a grip. His performance in Japan was appalling.

Verstappen Untouchable

The Red Bull car was back to being untouchable in Japan, in Verstappen’s hands at least. This track looks just as well suited.

Their only weakness seems to be very bumpy tracks which forces them to raise the ride height to a point where they lose a lot of downforce from the floor. This newly resurfaced track is unlikely to give them any problems.

Perez’ weakness starts in qualifying but over a race distance he can make up ground. Hopefully he can have a stronger weekend and the sprint race format helps him score more points as there are two races. However, he will still face the challenge of Friday’s qualifying for Sunday’s race.

Mercedes

20 points ahead of Ferrari in third place but Mercedes have fallen behind McLaren in terms of current form. Ferrari have found a better step up for their car but it is still not entirely predictable.

So, Mercedes are in a bun fight for second place and with some friction between their two drivers. Since the return after the summer break, Mercedes have scored just one podium. That compares to a win and a 3rd for Ferrari, and three podiums for McLaren.

Their struggles in qualifying are their limiting factor and the competition has gotten better. The hot conditions should help negate Mercedes’ tyre warm up problem in qualifying and their better tyre wear credentials should help over a race distance.

They struggled big time for rear end grip in Japan and that could be a big problem for them again.

Ferrari

In much better shape than in the first half of the season. Carlos Sainz has been the main beneficiary of the setup changes to the car.

There is no doubt that Ferrari were flattered by the two real outliers of the ultra-low downforce Monza and the high-downforce and bumpy Singapore tracks. Back on ‘regular’ tracks they are in the mix with McLaren and Mercedes for best of the rest and McLaren are steaming ahead on recent form.

On a track that is going to be hard on the tyres, Ferrari are hard to fancy.

Aston Martin

With Stroll a dead weight in the second car and the team being out developed by McLaren, Mercedes and even Ferrari, it is left to Alonso to fly the flag, and he is struggling. From six podiums from the first eight races of the season, to just one in the last eight.

McLaren are now just 49 points behind them and a good bet to overhaul them before the end of the season. Alonso is now struggling to make Q3 and If Alpine or Alpha Tauri have good weekend, Aston Martin are only the sixth best team.

The long straight will not suit and tyre wear could be harsh for their car.

McLaren

Not yet ready to beat Red Bull on merit, or at least not Verstappen, but if Perez continues to struggle in qualifying, then double podiums are up for grabs for Norris and Piastri.

This track, with very little in the way of slow corners, looks like being a good one for them, a very good one. Piastri’s lack of track experience is less of a problem here, as nobody has driven on the new surface and those that have been here have only had the one race.

They were 2nd and 4th at Silverstone and 2nd and 3rd at Suzuka. That suggests that they will go well here and if they do, more podiums beckon, especially if Perez is off with the fairies.

Alpine

Can cause Aston Martin problems at times but they are only in the hunt for minor points on a regular basis. A draggy car may not be the best thing on this track and even if Aston Martin struggle, Alpine may not be able to take advantage.

Williams

A high downforce track is not ideal for them but Albon is never that far away from the top 10. Any high attrition and he could score. Sargeant is increasingly looking like a driver who knows he has had his chance in F1 and blown it.

If Aston Martin and Alpine struggle, Albon may find himself in the mix for a point, but this doesn’t look a good match on paper.

Haas

Even with five DNFs in Japan, the two Haas drivers couldn’t score and it is all a bit pointless with a car so uncompetitive over a race distance. Their tyre shredding qualities on Sundays should see them out the very back.

Alfa Romeo

It is easy to forget Alfa Romeo are on the grid, outside of the odd, nice livery. Bottas admits their progress has stalled.

They were flattered at the start of last year when they were able to run a car that was legally lighter than the opposition. Once the others went on a diet, Alfa have been making up the numbers ever since.

There is no doubt they are waiting for Audi’s takeover to kick in and this season feels like one spent with their feet up on the desk waiting for the funds to arrive. One point from the last eight races just about sums them up.

Alpha Tauri

Recent upgrades have moved them up the pecking order. Liam Lawson looks to be a real find and he will be racing again this weekend. Tsunoda has upped his game but with more time in the car, Lawson looks to be the better prospect this weekend.

With question marks over the likes of Aston Martin and Alpine, this could be a weekend for Alpha Tuari to sneak a point or two. Maybe even a double points finish?

2023 Qatar GP: Ante Post Selections

With this being a sprint race weekend and more importantly, a brand new track surface, things are going to evolve as the weekend goes on. It may not be a great race for getting involved early, but there are three bets I’m happy to make now as the odds look decent value.

This looks like being a strong track for McLaren. They are the hot team right now with their two upgrades having transformed their car into the clear second best, at least on the faster circuits.

There are question marks over the opposition and while they are unlikely to bother Max Verstappen too much, they are a very strong contender for best of the rest.

Perez is the fly in the ointment. He should be on the podium, but his confidence is shot right now and he is worth opposing.

We had Norris for a podium in Japan last time and he was a 2.50 shot, now he is just 1.85 (and rightly so). Piastri is being underrated at bigger odds. He doesn’t yet have the total racecraft of Norris, but he should have the kind of car advantage over the near opposition to back up his Suzuka podium with another.

2023 Qatar GP Tip: 2 points Oscar Piastri to finish on the podium @ 2.77 with Unibet

2023 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point e/w double podium finish for McLaren @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

I have been consistently backing Liam Lawson to finish in the points and he obliged once, and only just missed out twice. His last three races have seen him finish 11th, 9th and 11th. He is knocking on the door every time.

This track is a bit of an unknown quantity but with it being a fast, higher downforce track that is hard on tyres, a number of his direct opponents for a top 10 may well be especially unsuited by the demands put on them this weekend.

His lack of track experienced is not a big issue here as nobody can claim to have much experience, especially on a new surface.

2023 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to finish in the points @ 3.75 with Hills, Livescorebet

There will be an update for tomorrow’s qualifying session, the Sprint race on Saturday and the usual race day update.

-JamesPunt