2023 Qatar GP Raceday Update

James Punt landed a lovely 4.33 winner yesterday in the Sprint Race with Oscar Piastri. Fingers crossed for more of the same this evening. His 2023 Qatar GP Raceday update is below.

2023 Qatar GP Raceday

The thing about these sprint race weekends is that we have already had a dress rehearsal and today we just get an extended version. The difference of course is that today’s race is a 57 lap race and not a 19 lap sprint, but we have learned a lot from yesterday.

Firstly, we learned that the soft tyre is a lot quicker than the medium, but it only lasts for about five laps before falling off a very steep cliff. It is hard to see it being used in today’s race, outside of someone finding the right window to bung a set on to get the fastest lap at the end of the race. Or maybe not….

Track Suits McLaren

We had confirmation that this track is perfectly suited to the strengths of the McLaren. It looked like game over for Piastri and Norris after the start of the race yesterday. Norris was swamped by the soft tyre shod cars off the line and Piastri was passed with ease by Russell’s soft tyred Mercedes.

Russell opened a big gap very quickly, but despite two long safety car periods, once the soft tyres went off, he was a sitting duck.

The medium shod McLarens then took control of the sprint, Norris coming back to finish third and Piastri was untroubled at the front. He was also able to keep the Red Bull of Verstappen at arm’s length. It was very impressive.

Will we see a repeat today? Possibly, but the unknown factor is tyre deg over a race stint. Pirelli have identified a problem with the tyres going over the serrated kerbs and they wanted to see how they help up after the 19 lap sprint. The two safety car periods mean that they didn’t get 19 racing laps.

Three Stops Mandatory

We are only five hours before the start of the race as I type, but there has been no announcement about the provision to have a mandatory three stop race. There is a meeting with the teams at 2pm local time and that is as I type.

There were a lot of punctures when we last raced here in 2020 and I suspect that caution will be the watch word and we will see the mandated three stops. So maybe we will see the soft tyres making an appearance after all.

The news came in at 2.30 that Pirelli/FIA have mandated that no tyres will be allowed to do more than 18 laps. Anyone doing more than the 18 laps will be disqualified. A three stop race it is. With three stops for tyres, we will effectively be getting three sprint races joined up by pit stops.

A multi stop race should likely favour teams that would normally struggle with tyre deg over a race distance. Ferrari will not be unhappy with it, Haas ditto, and even McLaren. Mercedes on the other hand will be losing one of their greatest race strengths, along with Red Bull.

Unimpressed

It is fair to say that the teams and drivers were not impressed by the late announcement about reprofiling three corners and the proposed three stop race.

The teams have a fixed number of tyres allocated for the weekend and would have been working to a plan, keeping as many new tyres for the race as they thought they would need. Now those plans have been thrown out the window.

Alonso said that they basically had to give up on the sprint race by having to save the mediums for a three stop race. Those that used the mediums took the choice to burn a set of mediums and score points in the sprint, but the big points are handed out today, so it looks like the medium tyre saving option was the logical one.

New Mediums

As it stands, fourteen of the drivers have one set of new mediums. The five to have two new sets are Stroll (strawberries for pigs springs to mind), Magnussen, Tsunoda, Sargeant and Albon. The medium is the best race tyre and having two new sets in a three stop race is an advantage.

One driver has no new mediums and that is Hulkenberg. It look like he will have to do a hard, hard, soft, or race used mediums. That begs the question, does the 18 lap limit include the number of laps already on a used set?

2023 Qatar GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

Red Bull 

Landed his third World Championship in the Sprint race yesterday, despite losing out to Piastri. The celebrations will have been put on hold as we have the Grand Prix today.

Verstappen starts this race from pole position, with the two big threats of Piastri and Norris starting from sixth and tenth respectively following their deleted lap times from Friday qualifying.

The Mercedes don’t have the same pace as the McLaren’s but their race pace is always better than their qualifying pace. With Russell looking the better of the two Mercedes drivers this weekend, he looks to the main threat to another Verstappen victory.

Perez Struggling Again

Perez is doing his best to lose his second place in the championship. He starts way back in thirteenth place and while he should still be able to score points, he looks likely to lose more ground to Hamilton and Alonso.

Both Verstappen and Perez have one new set of mediums, and only two sets of used, which is not ideal. Perez has one set of new soft tyres which may bring him into the frame for fastest lap.

Pitlane Start

More late news is that Perez, the hapless Perez, is now likely to have to start from the pitlane after Red Bull were found to have breached the rebuilding regulations. Due to damage to the floor and sidepods, the repairs amount to building a third car.

It is the same regulation which befell Logan Sargeant in Japan. He had to start from the pits and got a 10 second time penalty for the race as well.

It never rains, but it pours for Perez and our lovely big bet on him to finish second in the championship looks increasingly doomed. His current 25 point lead over Hamilton could be reduced to a handful of points by this evening.

Mercedes

Russell has been on it all weekend while Hamilton has been off it most of the time. By using the medium tyres yesterday he was able to make it up to fifth place in the sprint. He did use another set of the mediums doing so and he still has one set of new mediums for the race, but only two sets of used, compared to three for Russell. Advantage Russell at Mercedes.

Russell is not considering a race win, expecting Verstappen to do the usual and just drive off into the distance. The Red Bull is vulnerable off the line. But, with his powerful DRS down the starting straight, he is just going to drive by at a later stage.

Mercedes have the luxury of having both cars starting at the sharp end of the grid and they can split their strategies and hope to unsettle Verstappen on strategy. The bottom line is that the Red Bull is a faster car, driven by a top driver and I don’t rate Mercedes’ chances as highly as some.

Aston Martin

We should really just refer to this team as Fernando Alonso. Lance Stroll will start from seventeenth place and is not a factor in this, or any other race, despite having a lot of new tyres to use.

Fernando has driven very well so far and his low drag set up should make him quite punchy in the race. He should be able to make progress on the straight. His problem is that his car is still slower than the Red Bull, Mercedes and McLarens.

It will be interesting to see how he copes with tyre wear given his setup could lead to some sliding in the corners, and that could set off overheating problems for his tyres. I suspect he will do well to finish top 6. That said, the three stops will help him.

Ferrari

Carlos Sainz was one of the losers in Friday’s qualifying session and he starts back in twelfth place. The car has top 6 pace and with a three stop race for all, the goalposts have been moved in their direction.

Charles Leclerc starts from fifth. The fact that this is now a three stop race means that Ferrari’s season long battle with tyre deg has been reduced by a significant margin.

Sainz has one set of new soft tyres at his disposal. Does that make him shorter odds to set the fastest lap? A short fourth stint on soft rubber would make him very likely to be very fast at the death.

McLaren

Have the fastest car this weekend, over one lap at least. Their tyre deg is not quite as good as the Red Bulls or Mercedes, so the three stop race looks like helping them. What doesn’t help is starting  6th and 10th.

We have backed them for a double podium finish at 6.00 and had they started second and fourth as they were before lap time deletions, they would be very short odds on. It was a great plan but the execution, especially by Norris, was poor.

The car is a rocket ship round this track and I wouldn’t burn the betting slips just yet, but overtaking looks tricky. We have also backed Piastri for a podium and that is still a live hope.

Alpine

The hardest team on the rid to predict. Starting eighth and ninth means they should be scoring points but life is never straight forward at Alpine. Who knows what today has in store for them? Not me.

Alfa Romeo 

Bottas has been quick at times but he has faster cars behind him and staying in the points will not be easy. Zhou just hasn’t got going this weekend and starts last.

Alpha Tauri

The Lawson bubble has burst this weekend. He hasn’t done anything well and Tsunoda is putting him in the shade. The Japanese driver scored his last point at Spa when he also qualified eleventh, but he has Sainz, Perez and even Albon starting behind him, so points may remain elusive.

Williams

Albon picked up two points from yesterday’s sprint race, making up ten places. The Williams is very fast on the straight, which helps him attack and hard to pass. It is hard to say how a three stop race will affect him but this isn’t a track they expect to get much out of.

Haas

If there is one team who would love every race to be a three stopper it has to be Haas. The car has reasonable pace over a lap, and we saw Hulkenberg seventh in the sprint shoot out.

He now has the chance to do three sprint races and that will help. Hulkenberg starts from fifteenth which makes a points finish unlikely, but for once, he might well improve on his starting position.

Magnussen has been pants and says he just can’t learn the track.

2023 Qatar GP RaceDay Selections

The late confirmation of a three stop race has put the cat amongst the pigeons. It will help Ferrari and Haas more than most but it takes the edge off the Mercedes challenge. It may help McLaren but it is hard to say.

We haven’t had anything like this before, not even the excellent 2005 Indianapolis GP. Is it going to make a big difference? Hard to say. It is the same for everyone but it is going to get the strategists scratching their heads.

It is a max of 18 laps per set of tyres, three stops and four stints in a 56 lap race. We could see a driver doing three 18 lap stints and a two lap sprint on the softs, but it will likely be a combination of shorter stints.

Fast Soft Tyre

The soft tyre is so fast that it must be tempting to introduce it at some stage, ideally at the end of the race. Those faster cars with a fresh set have to be considered for the fastest lap, which means Sainz and Perez.

Ferrari have not set a fastest lap in 2023, which is no surprise given their tyre deg issues, but today, things have moved in their favour. Perez has set two fastest laps this season and may be tempted to go for it if he finds himself in the right place at the right time. He certainly needs every point going.

However, the news that he is likely to be starting from the pits and getting a further 10 second penalty means he is unlikely to be in that right place.

2023 Qatar GP RaceDay Tip: 0.5 point Carlos Sainz to set the fastest lap @ 26.00 with Skybet, Betfred

Ferrari and Haas have to be the happiest with the three stop race. Leclerc starts from fifth place and his task will be to try and stay top 6.

Piastri will be too quick for him but the biggest threat to losing out on sixth will likely be the other McLaren of Norris. Leclerc may have to beat Alonso to land the top 6 place, but he is getting a helping hand to do just that.

2023 Qatar GP RaceDay Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish in the top 6 @ 2.20 with Betvictor

Haas have to be delighted with the three stop directive and I fancy Hulkenberg to have a better result than would usually be the case.

He starts from 15th place and I take him to win group 4 with Ladbrokes. It is a big group of six, including his teammate, Zhou, Stroll, Lawson and Sargeant. He starts ahead of the lot and his one lap pace has been good.

With multiple stops for fresh tyres, he should be more competitive over the race distance than is normally the case.

2023 Qatar GP RaceDay Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to win Group 4 with Ladbrokes @ 4.50

The last bet is another group bet with Ladbrokes. Group 1 is a group composed of the two Mercedes and the two McLarens.

The McLaren is clearly the faster car and Mercedes’ traditional advantage of good tyre degradation will be blunted by having three mandated stops. They have Piastri as the outsider of four, which seems strange.

2023 Qatar GP RaceDay Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to win group 1 @ 4.75 with Ladbrokes

It is going to be an unusual race, and I haven’t even mentioned track limits, but expect penalties galore to be handed out, just to make things even more confusing. Hopefully we get a bit of luck for a change.

-JamesPunt