2023 Sandown and Aintree Preview and Tips

This is one of the best weekends on the NH calendar. Not only do we have the Becher Chase at Aintree, we also have the Tingle Creek at Sandown. This year we also have the added bonus of the rescheduled Fighting Fifth Hurdle. There’s something in there for everyone, hopefully we can land a winner or two. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Sandown and Aintree preview below.

1.15 Sandown – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)

The ground is currently soft, heavy in places on the hurdle course at Sandown. With 10mm of rain forecast on Saturday morning, there will probably be more heavy in it than soft by the time of this race.

That won’t be an issue for the 2/9 favourite, the mighty Constitution Hill. Nicky Henderson’s son of Blue Bresil doesn’t come to the races all that often but when he does, he wins. He is 7/7 so far under rules and he has won six Grade 1s in a row, including one over this C&D on heavy.

Are there any chinks in his armour? Well it could be argued that his last run of 2022/23 at Aintree was one of his worst and he only had 3l to spare over Sharjah. That was his first try at 20f though, so you could ‘forgive’ him that marginally below par effort.

When you are forgiving a horse for winning a G1 by 3 lengths, it tells you just how talented an animal we are dealing with. Granted a clear round, he should hack up.

Opposition

With no Epatante this season, two mares look likely to battle it out for second spot. Love Envoi is a solid 150+ performer on her day and she is a previous two time winner over 20f on heavy at Sandown (G2 & Listed). She has also won over today’s trip of 16f at the Esher track, where she is unbeaten after three runs.

However, she proved no match for Honeysuckle at Cheltenham last season and that was when she was racefit. No doubt she loves this track but I think she is best watched on this occasion.

Unpredictable

Goshen and Shishkin also pitch up here. The former horse was beat 17L at Ascot last time and he is as unpredictable as Irish weather. Shishkin blotted his copybook by refusing to race at Ascot and he is a risky proposition over a trip well short of his optimum.

Not So Sleepy won this race at Newcastle a couple of years ago and he’ll like the ground. His run in the Cesarewitch showed he retains a fair bit of ability and if he is in the mood, he could outrun his odds. However, he’s an 11yo now and with just two places on offer, we’ll leave him alone this time. No bet, but hopefully Constitution Hill puts on a show.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: No Bet

1.30 Aintree – Boylesports Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Just over a year ago we backed Gustavian on his seasonal return at Exeter. He of course finished just outside the money in fourth off 137. He went on to win two starts later off 132 and he pitches up here off a mark of 135.

Anthony Honeyball’s charge was running off 137 on his return to action at Wincanton (25f gd/sft) four weeks ago, his first run after a wind op. He did make a couple of mistakes but overall he shaped pretty well before fading in the closing stages and you’d imagine he’ll come on bundles for that run.

The ground at Aintree will be far more suitable than it was at Wincanton. This horse really likes testing ground and going left handed, as his career form figures on soft/heavy of 22113223F on left handed tracks illustrate.

Anthony Honeyball’s horses are mostly running well and Sam Twiston Davies has a good record for him (10 wins from 36 rides with 16 top 4s). Honeyball’s record at Aintree is pretty solid too, five winners and 10 top 4s from just 32 previous runners. Gustavian is his only runner this weekend, hopefully he can run into the money at odds of 14/1.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: Gustavian e/w @ 14/1 NAP

1.50 Sandown – Henry VII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

A cracking little race. Only six runners but they are all promising types with lots of potential. JPR One looked to have the race in the bag when unseating in a Cheltenham (16f gd/sft) Grade 2 last time out.

Joe Tizzard’s son of Court Cave previously won off 130 on bottomless ground at Newton Abbott so he should like the ground and he is 3/3 going right handed over hurdles. He holds obvious claims but should he be 15/8? I’m not so sure.

Tolworth Fourth

Colonel Harry is a horse I am a big fan of. We have backed him just once, when he was fourth here in the G1 Tolworth back in January, the only time he has finished out of the first two under rules. Typical eh!

The son of Shirocco is very highly regarded by Jamie Snowden and he loves testing ground. His chase debut came in a handicap at Chepstow last month and he won that well by 2.5L off 132. His official mark of 137 leaves him with 8/9lbs to find with the two top rated ones in this but I think this horse has a lot more to come over fences.

The likes of Le Patron and Petit Tonnerre might prefer better ground than they’ll get here today. Iceo and Unexpected Party should be bang there on ratings but the former horse trailed in well behind JPR One at Newton Abbott seven weeks ago and Unexpected Party was well beat off 146 at Cheltenham last time (20f sft).

This won’t be a betting race for me as Colonel Harry is too short for the blog at 4/1. I’m really looking forward to seeing how he gets on though, hopefully he runs a massive race.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: No Bet

2.05 Aintree – Becher Handicap Chase (Premier)

We have already backed Undersupervision for this race at 16/1. You can read why here. The rain has come and 11/1 is the best you’ll get about him now. We are in a decent position so it makes sense to stick with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ 7yo. Hopefully he takes to the fences and runs a big one.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: Undersupervision already advised e/w @ 16/1

2.25 Sandown – Rachael Blackmore Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Only four of the twelve runners in this 16f handicap hurdle have won on heavy ground. Thereisnodoubt will love conditions but the 10yo is probably handicapped to his best. Punta Del Este and Spirit D’Aunou have also both won on heavy, the latter horse’s win coming over this C&D.

The bookies haven’t missed either of those horses though and I prefer the chances of Red Rookie. Emma Lavelle’s son of Black Sam Bellamy is better known as a chaser. He won just one of his three starts over hurdles, a novice over this C&D on bottomless ground back in February 2021.

Emma Lavelle decided to go chasing with this fella two starts later and he won two of his nine starts in that discipline. His last victory came off 137 back in March at Warwick (16f sft) and he makes his handicap hurdle debut off 4lbs lower.

Ground Key

He ran a poor race on his return to action last month at Ascot (17f sft). He may have needed it and he’ll be much fitter now. The main angle with this horse is bad ground. He has form figures of 111 on heavy, including that C&D novice win.

Lavelle hasn’t had a winner in the last fortnight but six of her last twelve runners finished in the first three so they aren’t running too badly. Red Rookie was beat 7L into 3rd off 138 in a handicap chase on his last visit to Sandown on ground plenty quick enough for him. If he can repeat that on ground he loves back over timber, he should be in the shake up here at odds of 14/1.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: Red Rookie e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)

2.40 Aintree – Boylesports Juvenile Hurdle (Listed)

On his first start under rules in a Cheltenham G2, Knight of Allen was carried out after jumping the first fence. Trained by Jane Williams, this 3yo son of Masterstroke must have been showing plenty at home to be pitched in at that level on his racecourse debut.

Williams also trained his half-brother, Galahad Quest. He won a G2 4yo hurdle at Cheltenham on his third start and his half-sister, Iliade Allen, was placed in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham on her third start. Both those wins came on soft ground, so the conditions should suit Knight Of Allen at Aintree.

Sam Twiston Davies takes over from David Noonan in the saddle today. He has had two rides for the yard before, winning on one and finishing 2nd on the other. Interestingly, those two rides came on Galahad Quest. Williams has had three winners from her last six runners so she is in form and she’ll be keen to get her first ever win at Aintree. This is a speculative punt, so keep stakes modest, but at 16/1 Knight Of Allen is worth chancing e/w in the hope he is as good as his half siblings.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: Knight Of Allen e/w @ 16/1

3.00 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)

The feature at Sandown on Saturday and five run. Jonbon is odds on to follow up his taking win at Cheltenham last time. Already a dual C&D winner, he is 11/13 in his career to date. Nicky Henderson has kept him at 2 miles so far and he destroyed Edwardstone by 9L at Prestbury Park.

That was on soft ground but he is unraced on anything slower than that so if it comes up heavy, that’ll be an unknown. He’s well clear on the ratings though and on all known form, he should win.

Soft ground rates as a huge worry for Nube Negra. Yes, he has won twice on it but the vast majority of his best form is on ground with good in the description. Boothill is a grand, reliable horse but he has 8L to find with Jonbon on their meeting here last season.

Haddex Des Obeaux would love it to rain hard on Friday night. He relishes testing ground and if it came up heavy, it would enhance his claims considerably.

If Edwardstone can rediscover the form he showed when winning this last year on good to soft, he’d be a viable threat to Jonbon. He hasn’t looked the same horse since that win though and Jonbon made mincemeat of him last month.

If it came up heavy, Haddex Des Obeaux would be of slight interest but they’ll all have to improve hugely to get close to Jonbon if he is on his game. A race I’m more than happy to just watch. No bet.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: No Bet

3.15 Aintree – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Since we backed Schalke two weeks ago, Rebecca Menzies has had seventeen runners. Five of them won and eight more finished in the first three, so she has her horses in serious form. She relies on Rafferty’s Return here and this former Wetherby and Newcastle winner shaped pretty nicely on his second start of the season at Wetherby off 125 (19f hvy).

The prominent racer made a bold bid in that contest and he kept on pretty nicely to finish third, seven lengths behind Bashers Reflection and 2.25L behind Molly Ollys Wishes. This horse last won at Wetherby on Boxing Day last year (21f gd/sft). That came off a mark of 125 and he is a pound lower this afternoon.

His best form is on soft ground and he is suited by left handed tracks. His trainer does have a poor record on Merseyside but given her current form, that doesn’t put me off too much. Rafferty’s Return is 8lbs better off with Basher’s Reflection compared to last time and I can’t see there being 7 lengths between them again. At odds of 18/1, back him e/w.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: Rafferty’s Return e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB

3.35 Sandown – London National Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Last, but not least, we have the London National. A trip of 3m 4f awaits a field of ten and it will be a war of attrition on this ground. Endless stamina and a love for muck will be required and not many of these tick both boxes.

We backed Certainly Red on his comeback at Wincanton where he ran a grand race. However, this ground will not be to his liking. The 3/1 fav Beauport will be fine on the ground but the trip is the worry for him. All his wins are at 20f/21f and while he has placed at 3 miles, he didn’t finish too strongly over 26f on soft at Cheltenham last March.

Well Treated

Fontaine Collonges won on his seasonal comeback off 132 at Haydock last year. He bids to repeat the trick off 133 but with Ned Fox’s claim, he is well treated off effectively 4lbs lower. That win was over 25.5f on soft but his last two runs at 28.5f and 26f have not been his best. He’s had a wind op in the off season too, so he’s probably best watched today.

Truckers Lodge stays well and will love the ground. However, his main aim again this year will surely be the Welsh National and Paul Nicholls will be keen to get him there off his current mark of 137. If he won this, he’d get a 4lb penalty.

Daly Pair

The same sentiment applies to Rapper and Fortescue, Henry Daly’s two runners. They are both declared for Chepstow tomorrow so if that passes an inspection, they may not even run here. Cyclop is another one that is double entered and he is also in the Welsh National so he too looks a doubtful trier.

Broken Halo loves it here but the majority of his best form is on much nicer ground than he’ll get today. Couer Serein is another one who would prefer a sounder surface. This race is an absolute minefield and with doubts over the participation of a few of the field, I think the powder is best kept dry. I’ll have another look tomorrow once the fields are confirmed but for now, this is a no bet race.

2023 Sandown and Aintree Tip: No bet

-DaveStevos