2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting Preview
A disastrous opening day of the November meeting. Gold De Bois was backed alright but judging by his run, it wasn’t the owner’s money. Front runner Son Of The Somme started out the back and stayed there. Sequestered probably did try but he simply wasn’t anywhere near good enough. My confidence has taken a battering so it is probably best to proceed with caution tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting tips below.
1.10 – Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The ground was not as soft as I had anticipated at Cheltenham on Friday. They only got 2mm overnight but the most recent forecast is showing up to 6mm in the early hours of Saturday morning so if that is correct, there should be more soft than good to soft.
On the form of his Wexford fourth behind Battle Of Mirbat, Outside The Door is of interest. La Touche Cup winning rider Tiernan Power Roche will claim 5lbs off this son of Milan and his trainer, Padraig Roche, usually means business when he sends horses across the Irish Sea.
This horse has been in good form since returning from a spell on the sidelines after a fall at Listowel. After pulling up on his comeback he bounced back with a win off 109 at Punchestown. That looked a weak race at the time but the runner up has won since and is now rated 10lbs higher and the fourth has won twice and is now rated 12lbs higher.
Solid Form
His next outing at Wexford (25f gd/yld) is what makes him of interest here. He was beat 2L off 116 behind Battle Of Mirbat. Whacker Clan was a length ahead of him in third off 118. He went on to win off 120 at Tramore next time. Then last time out, he hacked up in a handicap chase at the Showcase Meeting here last month off 125. He’s now rated 131.
With Aidan Kelly’s claim, Outside The Door was effectively racing off 109 that day. With Roche’s claim he’s just 5lbs higher today so on a line through Whacker Clan, he looks potentially well handicapped. He has won on soft so rain isn’t a massive worry, although he wouldn’t want it overly testing.
Padraig Roche gave his charge a spin over hurdles at Punchestown last month. He shaped very nicely over the 23f trip, staying on for a never threatening fifth on yielding ground. His jumping can be a touch iffy at times but if he puts in a nice clear round, Outside The Door can run on late for e/w money at odds of 20/1.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: Outside The Door @ 20/1 (5 places) nb
1.45 – Novices’ Chase (Listed)
Just six run and five of them are 13/2 or shorter. The rank outsider is Cloudy Flamingo and not even I can make a case for him. Alaphilippe shaped well on his return three weeks ago when finishing second to Good Risk At All at Carlisle. That was over 20f and he’ll appreciate the step back up to 24f and the return to Cheltenham.
However, it was his first run for nearly two years so the dreaded bounce factor might come into play. His Carlisle conqueror is the 5/2 fav but unlike Alaphilippe, he has to prove he stays this far. His two runs to date at beyond 20f did not suggest he wants three miles.
Hard To Win With
Mister Coffey will stay but his record of 0/9 over fences is off putting. He has finished in the first three seven times but odds of 11/4 look skinny enough for a horse that is difficult to win with.
The Twiston-Davies pair, Broadway Boy and Weveallbeencaught, both like it at Cheltenham. They are 5/1 and 9/2 respectively and you couldn’t discount either of them. I was half tempted to back those two in a reverse forecast but if Alaphillipe doesn’t bounce, he could spoil the Twiston Davies party.
We’ll keep the powder dry here. No bet.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: No Bet
2.20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)
Giovinco got our ‘Four To Follow’ piece off the mark last weekend at Aintree. Hopefully, Notlongtillmay can give us a second winner this afternoon. Laura Morgan’s charge ran an extremely pleasing race on his return at the Showcase Meeting over 16f. With that under his belt he should be cherry ripe and this step back up to 20f is going to suit him. He’s too short for the blog but hopefully he does the business at 7/1.
One thing that looks certain is that this race will be run at a breakneck pace from the outset. The Real Whacker, Stage Star, Final Orders, Il Ridoto, Whistleinthedark & Torn And Frayed all like to be up there early so it should be a proper burn up.
Hold Up Horse
In the hope that it sets up for a hold up horse, Black Gerry is the e/w selection at 33/1. Gary Moore’s charge is in off a career high mark of 142 after landing valuable pots on his final two starts of last season. The second of those wins came off 139 so the handicapper hasn’t been too harsh on him.
In both those races, at Ascot (17f gd/sft) and Plumpton (19.5f sft), Black Gerry was waited with and produced late. At Ascot he tended to jump slightly left at times and though he won easy, his jumping was arguably better around left handed Plumpton.
Left Handed
He has career form figures of 1231 under rules going to the left and while he has also won twice going the other way, he hasn’t been as consistent (651P1). Black Gerry won on his seasonal bow in 2022 so he can go well fresh and his trainer won this with another former Plumpton winner in 2018 with Baron Alco.
The bit of cut in the ground will be to the son of Westerner’s liking and he’s a half brother to Grand National winner Minella Times, so there could still be more improvement to come from this 8yo. 44 of Gary Moore’s 108 chase runners at Cheltenham have finished in the first 4 (13 winners), hopefully Black Gerry can enhance that record at odds of 40/1.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: Black Gerry e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
2.55 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Buddy One was the closest we got to having a big winner at the Festival in March. He hung his chance away up the straight but it was still an excellent effort in third off 131. He backed it up with another solid showing at Aintree and he ran a cracker off 135 in the Galway Tribes Hurdle in August.
PJ Gilligan’s charge won a minor race off 138 at that track on his last start and he returns to Cheltenham rated 16lbs higher than he was in March. Jack Gilligan claims 7lbs but even so, it’ll take a career best by some distance for him to win off this rating.
Question Marks
Plenty of the runners in this field have questions to answer. Five of them lack a recent run and at least ten of them would like better ground. Using a process of elimination, Polish has to be the e/w bet at 16/1.
Fergal O’Brien’s son of Teofilo has finished 2nd on his last five starts. Clearly, he isn’t the easiest to win with but at least he is race fit, consistent and he handles a cut in the ground. His last win came on the flat at Goodwood two years ago (16f sft) off 74 and his last hurdle win was at Newbury (24f gd/sft) in February 2021 off a mark of 130.
Despite his recent string of runner up efforts, his handicap mark hasn’t risen too much. He was beat 2L off 120 on his last run over timber in July. On his last chase start, he was 0.5L behind Risk And Roll off that same mark. He’s in off 122 today, he’s run respectably on both previous visits to Cheltenham and at 16/1, he is the e/w selection.
2023 Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting Tip: Polish e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) NAP
3.30 – Intermediate Hurdle (Class 3)
The last live race of the day is a nine runner handicap hurdle and nothing really appeals at a price. Another Choice doesn’t look well handicapped and he’d probably prefer a sounder surface. Fortunefavorsdbold jumped like a pig last time on her first run for Christian Williams and she is impossible to fancy after that.
Tiger Jet would definitely prefer nicer ground than he’ll encounter here. Rock My Way is a former course winner but his form has dropped off a cliff. Yes, a case could be made that he is well treated off 133 but there has been absolutely zero encouragement in any of his recent runs. Resplendent Grey could be the one to be on but he is too short for the blog. No bet.
