2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tips
Today was a prime example of why it is never wise to blindly follow market movers. Call Glory (20s into 12s) and Alaroos (12s into 7/2) were both well backed and neither even placed. I’m not sure what sort of ride Oisin Murphy gave Imperial Fighter. Angle Land at least provided some respite with a place, but it was back to normal with Miss Mirabell. The tide has to turn at some stage, doesn’t it? 2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting preview and tips are below.
2.15 Newmarket – EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed)
Eleven fillies will be looking to pick up some black type in this Listed Sprint. A lot of the heaviest showers missed Newmarket today but some moisture did get in so it should be genuine, good ground there on Saturday. The outsider that makes most appeal by far in this contest is Princess Shabnam.
Trained by Sean Woods, this 4yo daughter of Gregorian ran down the field on her return at Bath two weeks ago. On easy ground over 5f she shaped as though badly in need of the run and I’m hoping that outing has blown away the cobwebs. If it has, there is no way this filly should be 20/1.
Firstly, she is already a Listed winner, beating Gale Force Maya at Pontefract last August (6f gd/fm). She had previously split the talented pair of Ebro River and Ventura Diamond at Chester, rock solid form.
She can be excused her last two runs of 2022 on account of it being a long, hard season. Now, with her comeback under her belt, hopefully she will be much sharper and she is stepping back up to her optimum trip of 6f. Four of the top six in the betting lack a recent run so hopefully Princess Shabnam can pilfer a bit more black type at odds of 20/1.
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tip: Princess Shabnam e/w @ 20/1
2.50 Newmarket – Howden Handicap (Heritage)
Equiano Springs has an outstanding record over C&D. He has won four of his five starts on the Rowley course, at a lower level than this admittedly, and I’m not sure he deserves to be as big as 33/1 here. With Adam Farragher’s 3lbs claim he is effectively just a pound higher than when scoring here in September (6f gd) and you can put a line through his comeback run two weeks ago.
The 9yo son of Equiano was far too fresh on his return. He was sweating up, he was keen in the race and he unsurprisingly weakened in the closing stages. That should have knocked the edge off him and he will hopefully produce a more controlled performance today. He’ll start from stall 17 and with a few of the market leaders drawn high, that’s a plus. The 9yo isn’t going to get many chances to run for prize money like this so he’ll surely be there to do his best and at 33/1, Equiano Springs is the e/w selection.
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tip: Equiano Springs e/w @ 33/1 (6 places)
3.05 Goodwood – William Hill Handicap (Class 2)
As a big fan of horses that have course form at Goodwood, Sweet Reward is the obvious bet at a price here. George Rooke rides for Jonny Portman and he is back to try and go two better than when third in this race last season. He finished 3rd, beat 4.5L off a mark of 85 and just like this year, it came on the back of an ordinary effort on his seasonal comeback.
In 2022 he was beat 10L on his return off 86, this time he was 12.5L behind the winner at Newbury off 83. The handicapper generously dropped him a couple of pounds for that run so he’s in here off 4lbs lower than he was last year.
His course form figures at Goodwood read 52130, with the win coming at 9f. He has won twice at 10f so today’s trip is not a worry and if it rains, he handles an ease too. Today he’ll be racing off his last winning mark of 81, hopefully Sweet Reward can go close at odds of 20/1.
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tip: Sweet Reward e/w @ 20/1
3.25 Newmarket – Howden Suffolk Stakes (Listed)
Toshizou did us a favour when staying on for place money here last time out and on the evidence of that run, this extra furlong should be right up his alley. He shaped nicely in the Lincoln on his first run for Roger Fell on unsuitably soft ground and that is rock solid form. Last time, he came from the back under 5lb claimer Jonny Peate but he just couldn’t reach the two leaders.
On his only start at beyond 8f, he got to within 2L of Kyprios at Cork (10f gd). He is by Galileo, so he ought to stay 9f and this nice, good ground should be absolutely perfect for him. Empirestateofmind was 4L ahead of him here last time and re-opposes off the same terms, but hopefully this extra furlong will help Fell’s charge close the gap. Jamie Spencer’s much maligned hold up style should suit this horse well so at 22/1, Toshizou is the e/w selection.
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tip: Toshizou e/w @ 22/1 (5 Places) NAP
3.40 Thirsk – Thirsk Hunt Cup (Class 2)
A high draw is an advantage at Thirsk, a sharp track, and former Chester winner Devilwala could go well from a decent starting posi in stall 9. Trained by Tim Easterby, this son of Kodiac gets in here off a mark of 75. He’ll carry a feather weight of 8st 4lbs, so while stable jockey David Allan is on Cruyff Turn, he’d be unable to do 8st 4lbs so that doesn’t necessarily mean that he is on the first string.
Devilwala had some serious form as a 2yo and 3yo. He was beat 2L in the Gimcrack, 2.75L by St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst and he was considered talented enough to run at the Breeders’ Cup. Rated 113 when he started out his 3yo campaign with a G3 4th at Newmarket, his form nosedived subsequently.
Change Of Stables
A move to Dave Loughnane failed to spark a revival and he moved to Tim Easterby before the start of last season. On his first run of 2022 he was beat 4.5L off 84 and Easterby got four quick runs into him to presumably get his mark down. After a mid-season break he found his form again, going close at Ayr off 70 and then winning at Chester off 72.
Devilwala’s owner has a very good strike rate at Thirsk (6/22 with 4 places) so you’d hope he’ll be trying. It was too soft for him on his comeback run at Ripon and today’s conditions should suit him a lot better. Clearly, he’s not the horse he was as a 2yo but as he showed at Chester last year, he still has ability on a going day. Off just 3lbs higher than that day, he is worth chancing for small stakes at 33/1.
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tip: Devilwala e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)
4.00 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes (Group 3)
A refreshingly big field for this 5f cavalry charge with 17 due to go to post. Plenty of these sprinters will have bigger prizes in mind later this season. Twilight Calls will have his eyes on Royal Ascot where he finished 2nd last year. He was 5th in this race last season and connections will be using it as a stepping stone for him again. Maybe his class will see him through but at the odds, I’ll instead take a chance on Tees Spirit.
Adrian Nicholls trains this son of Swiss Spirit. His progeny usually don’t train on but this 5yo had a superb season in 2022. He showed nothing as a 2yo and won just once off 65 as a 3yo. He finished 2021 with a rating of 71, but last year he really matured into a top class sprinter. Nicholls picked off three nice handicaps on his first three runs, culminating with an Espom Dash win off 83.
Listed Company
Another handicap was added at Doncaster three runs later off 89 and he was then stepped up into Listed company for the first time at Tipperary. It is that form which makes him of interest here. He beat Erosandpsyche and Moss Tucker off level weights and those two have since gone on to show form at the highest level.
Nicholls decided to head to Longchamp for the Abbaye for Tees Spirit’s final run of 2022. Unfortunately, the soft ground was no good for him and he finished well beat. Since the start of last season his form figures at 5f on good read 1111 and his form figures on his seasonal comebacks for Nicholls read 11. That’s a lot of 1s and at 22/1, hopefully Tees Spirit can make a bold bid from the front.
2023 Saturday Newmarket Guineas Meeting Tip: Tees Spirit e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NB
4.40 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
The big one, the first ‘Classic’ of the season. We have already backed Dubai Mile e/w for the race ante-post at 50s. You can read the reasoning here. I’m happy enough to be on him and connections of other horses will be thrilled to know that we won’t be backing anything else. He’s a typically tough Johnston horse, hopefully he gives us a run for our money.
