2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips – DS
2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips
We blanked at Newmarket and York on Friday. Gozo ran a cracker in 5th, missing out on a place by a length. Radio Goo Goo also ran well enough, the step up in class just proved too much. Ravens Ark ran no race and Random Harvest ran like the drifter she was. We are back at HQ tomorrow with top class action at Ascot and York too. Fingers crossed we get back on track. 2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival tips are below.
1.45 Ascot – Ascot Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Straight into the good stuff at Ascot. We kick off with a 5f heritage handicap with a field of 19 sprinters. Eight of the last twelve winners were drawn 11 or higher and it looks like the early pace will come from the middle to high gates.
The most obvious one is Zarzyni from stall 13. He was a close third in this race last year off 104. Nicola and David Barron’s 6yo is back for a repeat bid off no less than 10lbs lower and he ran his best race of the season last time out in the Dash at Epsom. It looks like he has been trained specifically for this race and he has huge claims. If you are considering betting him, I wouldn’t put you off but he is just a shade too skinny for the blog.
Course Form
Another one who has gone very well here more than once in the past is Call Me Ginger. Jim Goldie has trained ten Ascot winners in the past and this 7yo was one of them. The son of Orientor was a comfortable winner over C&D on good to firm almost exactly a year ago off 86. Amie Waugh was on board that day and they are back to try and repeat the dose off just 1lb higher.
The forecast rain may or may not arrive but that isn’t a worry. This gelding’s last win came on soft at Doncaster off 89 last September and he was beat just 1.75L on soft over 5f at Ascot off 87 back in 2019. Last time out at Ayr he shaped nicely in a 6f race that wasn’t run to suit and he’ll be more at home in this big field. At odds of 25/1, Call Me Ginger is the e/w play.
2023 Saturday Ascot Tip: Call Me Ginger e/w @ 25/1 (5 places) NB
2.00 York – John Smith’s Racing Handicap (Class 2)
Most of the outsiders in this race would appreciate fast ground. The exception, though he isn’t a massive price, is Rhoscolyn. David O’Meara trains this son of Territories and he has yet to hit form this season. His best effort came on his sole start on soft ground at Royal Ascot where he was beat 8L when finishing 10th of 22 off 97.
After two moderate efforts at Epsom and back at Ascot on fast ground the handicapper has relented. He is now down to a mark of 91, a pound below his last winning mark. He has only run twice at York in the past but both those runs came on fast ground (with the second over a mile). 7f suits much better and the more rain that falls, the better. At odds of 12/1, Rhoscolyn is the e/w selection.
2023 Saturday York Tip: Rhoscolyn e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)
2.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2)
Nine runners and it is hard to see past the market leaders, even with the ground turning soft. Master Of The Seas, Aldaary, Jimi Hendrix and Angel Bleu all handle an ease but they are all priced up at 6/1 or shorter. On a busy day there are much better betting heats elsewhere so we’ll give this race a miss. No bet.
2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tip: No bet
2.35 York – City Walls Stakes (Listed)
A tricky looking Listed sprint. We backed Queen Me in the Commonwealth at Ascot and she ran a very good race despite only finishing 6th. She was only 3l behind the winner Shaquille and a length behind Swingalong, a Listed winner yesterday at York. Her sole win came over 6f on good to soft at Haydock, her best run came here in the Lowther over 6f on good and 5f on easy ground could be just what she needs to land her first stakes race.
The bookies haven’t missed her at 6/1 though and one that could sneak into the frame at bigger odds is Changeofmind for Declan Carroll and Cieren Fallon. By Sioux Nation, this 3yo colt started his career with an all the way win at Chester (5f gd) in May. He followed that up under a penalty in a Catterick Novice (5f gd/sft), giving Tarwalla 7lbs and a 3L beating.
Decent Form
That horse hacked up at Ripon next time out and then landed a handicap at Kempton off 81. He is now rated 86. Whisky McGonagall was 7L back in 3rd and he scored in a Musselburgh maiden next time. The 5th has also won a handicap since so it was a pretty decent maiden for the track.
Carroll stepped his charge into Listed company at this track last time out. The bubble was burst but maybe the run came too soon after Catterick and fast ground may not have been ideal either. He’s been freshened up, the rain has come and a couple of his dam’s siblings (Modern Millie & Epsom Icon) were best on easy ground. It is too soon to write this horse off, back him e/w at odds of 20/1.
2023 Saturday York Tip: Changeofmind e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
2.50 Newmarket – bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2)
Off a mark of 89 Lose Your Wad could go well at a price in this 8f handicap. We have backed this horse already this season, when he finished 4th in a Listed contest at Chester (10f sft). He was in the process of running a massive race when he got badly hampered around 1.5f out and after that, his chance was gone.
It was arguably a career best and if he had a clear run, who knows how close he would have got to San Antonio and Alder. His next two runs came at the same trip of 10f but on fast ground. He was beat 9L off 93 at Epsom and 8L off 91 at Ascot, where it looked like the trip possibly stretched him.
I think that dropping back to a mile is a good move. His only win to date came over the trip at Kempton and his three winning half siblings all enjoyed a bit of cut in the ground. Soft conditions could hold the key to Lose Your Wad and hopefully, he’ll be ridden a bit more forward today as he can be a touch keen when held up.
On that Chester form 89 looks a generous mark and at 14/1, an each way interest is advised.
2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tip: Lose Your Wad e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
3.10 York – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Heritage)
A maximum field of 22 will line up in the stalls for this 10f heritage handicap. The last six winners were drawn 11 or lower but the pace the race is run at is probably more important, depending on whether you are backing a hold up horse or a prominent racer. A low draw is important for the latter horses but if you are drawn wide on a hold up sort, an end to end gallop is required.
With such a big field, it probably makes sense to back two in this. From stall 2, Pride Of America is interesting for Amy Murphy with Fred Larson taking off 3lbs. Two starts ago he won in fine style at Chester, making all off 102.
He is effectively just 1lb higher today with his pilot’s claim and that Chester form has been franked by the runner up who won a Listed race next time out. The ground was probably too quick for him last time at Longchamp in a G3 and with the rain that came at York today (with more forecast tomorrow) conditions should be a lot more to his liking. Pride Of America is drawn to attack in stall 2 and at 33/1, he is worth a small interest e/w.
Held Up
One that will be held up who won’t mind an ease in the ground is Certain Lad. Jack Channon’s 7yo hasn’t won a race since landing a 9f G3 here on good to soft in 2020. However, he still retains plenty of ability and his York record is good. Including that win, he has raced here three times and in July 2020 he was runner up in this race off a mark of 103 on good. With George Bass’ claim he is effectively in off 104 today.
Last year the ground was too lively for him and he finished 11th off 107, though he was only beat 5.75L for the win. On his penultimate start he finished just 2l behind Pride Of America at Chester and he is 1lb better off here. In that race he was always up with the pace but his best form has come when ridden patiently. If Pride Of America goes too quick early, hopefully Certain Lad can pick up the pieces at odds of 25/1.
2023 Saturday York Tip: Pride Of America e/w @ 33/1; Certain Lad e/w @ 25/1 (both 6 Places)
3.25 Newmarket – bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2)
Three of the top four in the betting are unproven on easy ground so hopefully there could be a shock on the cards in this G2 for the Juveniles. Son ran well on soft on his debut over an inadequate trip on his debut at Ascot and then followed up with an emphatic win in a Newbury maiden over 6.5f on faster ground.
That form has worked out extremely well. The runner up, Soldier’s Gold, has since won two in a row and is entered up in a couple of big sales races. The fourth, Hot Fuss, should have won the Chesham for us at Ascot. Son beat those two by 2.5L and 4.5L respectively so it was a pretty serious performance.
He is by Too Darn Hot who was admittedly best on fast ground. However, his Selkirk dam handled heavy and she has produced two testing ground winners, including at Listed/G3 level. Hopefully Son can follow in their hoofsteps at odds of 16/1.
2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tip: Son e/w @ 16/1 NAP
3.45 York – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3)
Just six runners and a race I will happily swerve. Tashkan will be happy with the rain and he deserves to win one of these but 5/1 looks short enough. No bet.
2023 Saturday York Tip: No Bet
4.00 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup Handicap (Heritage)
The second heritage handicap of the day. 7f is the trip and a field of 18 will go to post. A high draw is usually an advantage but the last two winners were drawn in stall 3. Go figure. Two horses have already come out of this race and Popmaster won at Ascot yesterday so the field could be reduced further. So, even though he is drawn low in stall 1, I’m going to take a chance on Probe now he is back on easier ground.
Trained by Jennie Candlish, this horse started off with form figures of 121 for the yard after moving from Dermot Weld’s. A Wolves win off 84 was followed by a Newmarket 2nd off 90 (6f gd/sft) and he then followed that run with a Newmarket (6f gd/sft) win off 90. His next two runs at Epsom and Ascot came on good to firm so I’ll excuse both those efforts.
He should get his favoured conditions at Newmarket today. His form figures on good to soft or slower at 6f-7f read 120145 and he won his maiden on soft over 8f at Killarney. The step up to 7f on easy ground will surely suit and Trevor Whelan is 1/1 on the son of Kingman. Given his run style, he will need luck from stall 1 but if he gets the gaps at the right times, Probe can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 20/1.
2023 Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tip: Probe e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)
4.35 Newmarket – July Cup Stakes (Group 1)
We have already backed Run To Freedom at 33/1 for the July Cup. Read why here. I’d be worried about really soft ground for him but good to soft will be fine. In the event that is does turn very testing, Vadream is put up as an alternative.
She owes us nothing as she has already won at nice odds for us at Doncaster this season. Charlie Fellowes’ mare is a soft ground specialist and she is probably a stone better when the mud is flying.
Her last two runs came on good ground and predictably, she struggled. Her last two runs on softer than good resulted in victory and her overall form figures on soft/heavy read 1131731, including wins at G3 and Listed level. On good to soft I’d still prefer the chances of Run To Freedom at 33s but if it gets any softer, Vadream is worth backing e/w at odds of 20/1.
