2023 Saudi Arabia GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Saudi Arabia GP betting preview. He made a great start at the Bahrain GP last weekend, let’s hope for more of the same.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP Betting Preview

The first race of the season in Bahrain two weeks ago helped establish some sort of pecking order, but not one that is entirely set in stone. The cars have tested and had a race weekend on just one circuit with its own character and demands. We now make the short hop to Jeddah and the Jeddah Corniche Circuit.

the Circuit

This is a very different sort of track, much faster than Sakhir and only Monza sees the cars running at faster speeds. Given that this is a street circuit, lined by walls and barriers, any mistakes can be heavily punished. The first race saw five drivers not classified and the second, four. Accidents and collisions have been the main reason for the retirements.

The circuit features 27 corners, but many are taken flat out and are better described as curves rather than true corners. The track was modified for last year’s race with some corners opened up to give a little more room and better lines of sight for the drivers. More changes along the same the lines have been made for this year’s race. A couple of the faster curves have seen the walls moved back to improve line of sight and some new kerbs have been put in between corners 22 -23 to slow the cars down.

DRS Adjustments

The circuit features three DRS zones. The DRS makes overtaking a little too easy here and we saw drivers swapping places from one DRS zone to the next. The activation line for the final DRS zone has been moved back from the final corner.

This is to avoid drivers playing silly buggers, not wanting to lead into the final DRS zone on the finishing straight. It was getting dangerous with erratic braking manoeuvres and hopefully that will stop that. The track is a good test of power and aero efficiency. Draggy cars will struggle.

The Jeddah Corniche circuit has a nice, smooth, flat track surface. The opposite to the very rough and bumpy Sakhir circuit in Bahrain. That will be very good news for the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes who struggled with rear tyre degradation last time out.

Bahrain Form

The outstanding performer in Bahrain was the RB19. The 2023 Red Bull car is a much better version of last year’s championship winning RB18. Verstappen had a nice Sunday drive, in a class of his own. He was followed home by Sergio Perez in the other Red Bull. He had a bit more work to do after a poor start and being overtaken by Leclerc.

That was only a temporary hiccup, and he was soon past the Ferrari and into cruise and collect mode. It was a flawless performance and left most people suggesting that the championships are effectively over, such was the gap between Red Bull and the rest.

Poor Start Ferrari

Ferrari have started 2023 badly. Quick in qualifying, much like last year, but slower in the race, just like last year, and unreliable, just like last year. Tyre degradation was a problem, just like last year and the alarm bells are ringing at Maranello.

Their Head of Vehicle development, the man that led the design of this year’s car, has resigned and others are poised to leave. Could this just be a clear out of the old boss’s right-hand men, or a sense of panic setting in after just one race? One thing is clear, the car’s problem has nothing to do with new TD Fred Vasseur. His only mistake would be not getting rid of the planks who failed to fix last year’s problems over the winter.

New Energy Store

Leclerc’s car required a new energy store and control electronics to be fitted before the race and each car is only allowed two of them for the twenty-three race season. Ferrari had binned one before the start of race 1. He then had to retire from the race with engine failure, which was caused by another failure of the control electronics.

Ferrari’s number 1 job in the winter was to fix reliability problems, especially with the power unit. It was the worst of starts. Carlos Sainz did finish an anonymous fourth, 48 seconds behind Verstappen and 10 behind the Aston Martin of Fernando Alonso, but Ferrari have lost ground to Red Bull, Aston Martin and even Mercedes, on a relative basis.

Leclerc called a meeting with Ferrari’s Chief Executive and there are reports that the new team principle has already fallen out with the companied CEO. There are reports of multiple resignations and Ferrari is not a happy place to be.

Grid Penalty Leclerc

The latest news from Ferrari is not good. Charles Leclerc will have a third control electronic unit fitted in Jeddah and that will trigger a 10 place grid penalty. Whether Ferrari chose to take more new parts and more penalties is still possible, but his weekend has been compromised before he even arrived in Jeddah.

The big question is, will this affect all the Ferrari powered cars? As far as grid penalties go, no, not yet. Nobody else has had to change theirs as Leclerc did in Bahrain. They can still make one change without penalty, but it does place a question mark over Sainz, the Alfa Romeo’s and Haas going forward. What a shambles. This is said to be a brand-new problem, not related to last year’s woes.

Alonso Making An Impact

While the Red Bulls were the very clear winners in Bahrain, everyone wanted to talk about Aston Martin and Alonso. Alonso just about out qualified the two Mercedes, but in the race, despite being hit on the first lap by his own teammate and losing ground, he had little problem making his way up to third place.

The sight of him just driving past the Mercedes, which has the same power unit, gearbox and suspension, brought home just how bad the Mercedes is. Even the badly injured and under prepared Lance Stroll was able to pass George Russell to finish 6th. The Aston is now not just ‘best of the rest’ but is part of the top 3, albeit in a different formula to the Red Bull.

Reality Check For Merc

Mercedes finally accepted the reality check they needed. Their concept, their answer to the big regulation changes introduced last year, is a bad one. Yes, this year’s car is an improvement on last year’s car, but so is the Red Bull, the Aston Martin and so on.

The fallout was immediate. Toto Wolff called it one of the worst days in his racing life. Hamilton was telling the media that nobody had listened to him regarding the design of the car. All the win together and lose together stuff was absent. Very quickly their car was to be redesigned. The zero pod was dead.

Season over for Mercedes? In terms of the championship, yes. And Hamilton is out of contract at the end of the year. The party is over at Mercedes. The car’s designer seems to be carrying the can, Wolff has reportedly given the team’s technical director Mike Elliott an ultimatum related to improving the 2023 car. Other reports have their star designer of the golden era’s cars, James Allison, returning to the team to head up a new design. All a bit too late for 2023, despite the writing being on the wall for the whole of 2022. Perhaps a certain Mr. Wollf should be carrying the can?

Slow McLaren

The biggest disappointment of the first race was a close affair between Mercedes, McLaren and Alpine. McLaren, we knew were in trouble, so seeing them out of the points was no surprise, but having to retire one car and have the other lapped twice after developing a pneumatic problem was humiliating. Slow and unreliable, not a good start. Their car isn’t ready yet and they are going to suffer for a few races until they finally get the actual 2023 car finished.

Alpine were hoping that 2023 could see them making another step forward and despite an underwhelming test, they remained confident and upbeat. On the track, the car was just slow. It wasn’t helped by Ocon driving like a headless chicken and picking up multiple penalties. He was retired to save further embarrassment.

Decent Race Gasly

Pierre Gasly had a nightmare qualifying, ending up at the very back. He did have a better race and finished a creditable 9th. At least Alpine rescued some credibility, but they are now very much in the midfield, fighting with Alfa Romeo, Haas and Williams for the minor points, not the podiums that had been hoped for.

The car is not bad, but it is not good either. There is always one or two teams who start the season and leave everyone scratching their heads. Alpine is one of those. How they perform in the next few races will tell us if they can turn things around. I suspect they will, but how long it takes is the question and they are back on the ‘watch list’.

Middling Alfa

Alfa Romeo are right there in the middle again. Not good enough to get any podiums on merit, but the minor points are within their grasp. Bottas added to his excellent track record in Bahrain, finishing 8th, while Zhou set the fastest lap after pitting for new tyres on the penultimate lap. He was well down the field, and he didn’t pick up a bonus point.

Their car is OK, and they will be looking forward to more points this weekend. It will be a good test for their high-speed cornering performance, a real weakness in 2022, but an area Bottas identified as ‘better’ in testing.

The final point scoring place went to Williams’ Alex Albon who finished 10th. His rookie teammate Logan Sargeant finished 12th and all in all, it was good weekend for Williams. They surprised themselves with their race pace and while the car lacks downforce, it is a slippy looking beast which may well hold them in good stead this weekend.

Haas Hard To Place

Haas had a decent qualifying with Hulkenberg starting in tenth place, but he got hit on the first lap and his car was affected for the rest of the race. Magnussen started the race back in 17th place and only finished 14th, helped by the three DNFs. It is hard to place the Haas. There were some good signs, for Hulkenberg at least. The team remain optimistic that they have a points contender. Magnussen just couldn’t find the sweet spot.

Alpha Tauri had a very forgettable weekend. Their latest car appears to lack grip and its high-speed performance was poor. The slowest car on the grid? It looks like it.

Who will the Jeddah Corniche track suit?

Red Bull is the obvious answer. They have a very efficient car, a very fast car and a reliable one. It will go well here, and Verstappen will be expected to add another win in Saudi Arabia to go with his 2nd and 1st from the first two years here.

Sergio Perez qualified on pole position here last year, but he was unlucky with the timing of a safety car and ended up finishing 4th. Another 1-2 finish for the team should be on the cards, given their performance advantage in 2023. The car is low in drag and that will be rewarded here.

The Ferrari is also low in drag and with the track surface not as hard to the tyres as Bahrain, they should be more competitive this weekend, but their race looks to be against Aston Martin, not Red Bull.

This track should be a better proposition for the Ferrari than Bahrain was. The tyre deg is lower and the low drag nature of the car should be rewarded. Reliability is still a big concern, however, but Ferrari fans may be feeling a little less suicidal after this weekend, so long as they do not suffer further reliability issues.

Drag Issues For Aston?

The Aston Martin is ‘a Red Bull painted green’ according to some, but it is last years Red Bull painted green. This year’s RB19 is nearly a second faster than last years. The Aston Martin was said by some to be a bit draggy and it will be interesting to see where they stand this weekend. I suspect a podium will be harder to come by, especially if Ferrari can get two cars home.

The Aston is also said to be good for low deg on the tyres and that would have been part of the reason for them being so competitive in Bahrain. That advantage may not be as important in Jeddah. This is a car we are going to be learning about more than most and this race will be another school day.

Mercedes also look to have quite a bit of drag on this year’s car which does not bode well for their chances his weekend. They also suffered high tyre deg in Bahrain, so this surface will be better for them. Mercedes should still be the fourth best team unless Alpine can unlock whatever they think they have in their car.

Williams Could Go Well

Towards the rear of the field, Williams will relish the many flat-out parts of the track, and if they can find some sort of compromise set up to get more grip in the slower corners and more twisty sectors then they could get more points. Alpha Tauri look to have too much drag to compete on this sort of lay out.

Alfa Romeo did well enough to score points in Bahrain but this track will be a much bigger test of their new design. Last year’s car was poor in fast corners and there are plenty here to measure how far they have come. McLaren might be better this weekend, they should have fixed the pneumatic problems at the very least and if they can get a car to the finish, they might even get a point, but they remain a team to avoid for the meantime.

Track Records

Verstappen has finishes of 2nd a 1st, Hamilton won in 2021 but only 10th in 2022. Ferrari had a double podium finish last year but were poor in 2021. Esteban Ocon has finished 4th and 6th and his now Alpine teammate Pierre Gasly 6th and 8th.

We haven’t had any truly strange results here in the first two races, but the nature of the track does open up the potential for another chaotic race and that in turn could throw up a surprise. With yellow flags aplenty and perhaps red flags, somebody can get lucky, as we often see at Baku, another very fast street circuit.

Ocon was caught on the very last lap, in the last few metres of the race in 2021, by Bottas, missing out on what would have been a surprise podium finish. The high attrition rate allows for the smaller teams to nick some points if any of the top 10 are taken out. Aston Martin and Williams are the only two teams yet to score here, but that might change for both come Sunday.

The likelihood of yellow flag periods could also be good news for any cars that are a bit hard on the tyres. The degradation is lower here than in Bahrain in any case, but running behind a safety car or a virtual safety car reduces wear further and also offers up the chance of a free pit stop. That may help Ferrari in particular.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP: Summary

Red Bull’s domination of the race in Bahrain was comprehensive. It was on a track which had not been a happy hunting ground for the team or drivers. To run out with a 1-2 on the grid and a 1-2 finish was a display of total control, manifested by Verstappen finishing over 38 seconds ahead of Alonso, the nearest non-Red Bull to him. A 38 second gap, and he wasn’t even pushing. Second place man Perez was 26 seconds clear of Alonso. The opposition was vanquished. Only the point for fastest lap eluded Red Bull.

The bad news for the others is that we now move to a track on which the Red Bulls have been the best car over the two years of its existence. The only realistic threat to another Red Bull, and indeed another 1-2, is reliability, which has looked very good in testing and the first race, or the race being a mad one, but it would have to be off the scale mad.

Max Odds On

Verstappen is the generally available 1.50 favourite and Perez 7.00 (win only), 6.50 for e/w. Red Bull are 1.29 to be the winning team. Very short odds, but not without value, such is their lead over the opposition.

We have only had two races here. The first in 2021 was chaotic and had two red flags and race re-starts. The problem with this layout is that any crashes mean the race is likely to be yellow flagged or even stopped. It is too fast to have cars and marshals on track to recover any damaged cars. The layout of the track, especially the first chicane, invites collisions and the attrition rate has been high in the first two years.

Fast but Dangerous

The year-on-year modifications have been aimed at addressing the problems, but this remains a fast but dangerous circuit which could tend towards chaotic. I feel that they have got away without an incident that has changed the race winner so far, but this is a track which could do just that.

As such, backing Verstappen at 1.50 is not for me. He could, should, and probably will do exactly what he did in Bahrain, but with the very real threat of multiple yellow flags and possible red flags, it will not be as easy to just run and hide, even with a huge lead.

When we get one team who are so dominant, it is not great for ‘normal’ bettors. Money buyers will be happier, but we are not dealing with ‘working man’s odds’. It requires the bookmakers to use their imagination and offer betting without Red Bull, which would be a little more competitive, but to be honest, still not great. That would effectively be Aston Martin vs. Ferrari.

Red Bull Restrictions

2023 may not be set to be a great season for Formula 1 punting, not for now anyway. The cost cap and Red Bull’s restrictions on wind tunnel and CAD time may lead them to stop development on the RB19 relatively early.

The other teams have more work to do to sort out their designs, so we might see the field close up in the latter half of the season. A bit like when Brawn came out with a rocket ship, effectively winning the championships in the first half of the season, before the others started to become more competitive.

But before we all look for something else to bet on, there are, or should be, some side markets to look at. The first is the qualifying market. While Red Bull destroyed the opposition in the race, qualifying was much closer. Red Bull, quite rightly, optimised their car set up for maximum effectiveness over a race distance. They were not too bothered about pole position. They still got it, and locked out the front row, but Charles Leclerc was ‘only’ 0.292 off Verstappen’s pole position time.

Gap To Shrink

That is still a fair chunk of time, but with a track that should suit the Ferrari better than Bahrain, I expect that gap to shrink. Wiping out the deficit would be a surprise, but qualifying could be more competitive than the race. Leclerc is one of the very best at getting the most from a car over one lap and if he nails it, and Verstappen makes a mistake, as he did here in 2021, then we could see a different pole sitter. It would be a surprise however, as Red Bull should also be better suited to this track than Bahrain.

The qualifying market has Verstappen as the 2.20 favourite, odds against, really? Charles Leclerc is the 3.25 second favourite, Perez 7.50, Alonso 11.00 and Sainz 13.00.

The bookies are thinking the same way as me, but should Max actually be odds against? I do not think so. Sergio Perez would look to be Verstappen’s greatest threat. The Mexican was the fastest qualifier here last year, but at that that, the Red Bull was tending towards understeer and Perez was able to manage that a little better. That is not the case in 2023. Perez does have good street track form and he could be a threat this weekend, but overall, he lacks the pace of Verstappen.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes, Betfair

The podium finish market is not awash with value opportunities, thanks to Red Bull likely filling the top 2 spots. Who else could be in with a decent chance of a podium on Sunday?

Ocon nearly did it in 2021, which hints that a ‘surprise’ could be possible. The likely lads are Alonso, a 2.10 shot, Leclerc 2.38 and Sainz 4.33. None of those three would be described as a surprise.

The possibles include Stroll at 7.00 (cut from 8.00 pre Leclerc penalty announcement). He has the car to do it based on what we saw in Bahrain. He has had a further two weeks to improve on his fitness and he has form for getting a podium in mad races. His 2017 3rd place for Williams in Baku. Stroll should not be far off the final podium place in a normal race and with some luck, he could find himself in the right place at the right time. The odds are good enough to roll the dice, especially with the issues with the Ferrari power units.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish on the podium @ 7.00 generally available

The ‘to finish in the top 6’ market should be filled by the drivers already mentioned, in normal conditions. However, with the historic high attrition rate here, there could be room for a less likely candidate.

Ocon was 6th last year but that was not a surprise given his good showing in the opening race. Ocon was 4th in 2021 which was a little more of a surprise and Gasly was 6th for Alpha Tauri but that was his seventh top 6 of the year, again, not a huge surprise.

The nature of a surprise makes them hard to predict, especially on a track on which we have only had two races and this being just the second race of the year. Drivers with a lot of experience, driving for a savvy team are often best placed to take advantage of any chances.

Bottas Experienced

Bottas has the experience, he finished 8th in Bahrain, and he picked up three top 6 finishes in the first six races of 2022. He qualified 8th here last year but retired with a mechanical failure. The Finn is a safe pair of hands who is perfectly capable of taking any chance that comes his way. Are Alfa Romeo a savvy team? The jury is out on that bit. Will he be hit with problems with the Ferrari power unit? Hopefully not, but it is an added risk.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP Tip: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to finish in the top 6 @ 8.50 with Hills

Finally, there is the bun fight for a points finish. The shortlist for this market is a long one and perhaps best revisited on Sunday. It is the most competitive side market and there will be hints in practice.

The temptation is to go for Alex Albon at this stage. The Williams’ low drag qualities impressed in Bahrain, and I can see this track maybe suiting it even more than Bahrain. The fact that there is now a clear reliability issue with cars running the Ferrari power unit is enough to risk a third speculative ante post bet. Let’s hope I am not digging myself out of another hole come Sunday.

2023 Saudi Arabia GP Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to finish in the points @ 3.50 with Skybet, Betvictor

Next update will be around 30 minutes before the start of qualifying on Saturday.

-JamesPunt