2023 Singapore GP Raceday Preview

It was a profitable day on Saturday for James Punt’s followers. Sainz landed our pole position bet and as an added bonus, Russell outqualified Hamilton. Now, it is time for James’ 2023 Singapore GP Raceday update.

2023 Singapore GP Raceday

Today’s grid has strange look about it. There is no Red Bull in the top 10. No doubt the conspiracy theorists will be clucking away with the new technical directive being to blame, that Red Bull have been cheating and they should be banned etc., etc.

Or it could just be that they have had a mare? Take your mind back to 2015 and Merecedes’ belly flop here with a car that was nearly as dominant as this year’s Red Bull. That left the team scratching their heads and wondering where all their pace had gone, out of the blue.

Atypical Track

This track is atypical with its abundance of 90 degree corners, which aren’t really corners. They are braking events, a quick yank on the wheel and acceleration onto the next straight. There is no curve, no performance while cornering, just braking, traction and acceleration. Ferrari does this very well, Red Bull not so much.

Throw in a gearbox which was misbehaving on Max’s car, a late change of floor, dealing very badly with traffic, and not getting the tyres in the right window and suddenly the mighty Red Bull looked very ordinary.

It doesn’t help that Verstappen gets himself into a right old tizzy when things go tits up. Perez qualifying 13th is hardly news these days.

Japan Key

The real test for Red Bull will come in Japan. If they flop there as well, there will be questions asked. If they do what Mercedes did in 2015 and just resume with business as usual, then the conspiracy theorists will have to look elsewhere.

As an analyst and bettor, it will be fascinating to see how the market reacts to this Red Bull flop next week. Will we get their odds drifting to backable levels? Or will they remain as the hot favourites for Suzuka, which looks to be a track on which the Red Bull will be very quick.

Red Bull Need Luck

As far as today’s race we can forget about Red Bull, unless they get very lucky. Picking up a few points is likely to be the limit of their ambitions. Today we are talking about a race between Ferrari and Mercedes, with a sprinkling of Lando Norris to spice things up.

Ferrari had looked very good from the first practice session and the in-form Carlos Sainz delivered the goods for the second race in a row, if only by a very small margin. With Red Bull not a factor, the decks are clear for a different team to finally get on the top step in 2023. But who will it be?

Tyre Issues

Ferrari has a problem. Tyre degradation. All season long they have failed to match their race pace with their qualifying race because their car degrades their tyres more quickly than the opposition.

Mercedes is the flip side of the same coin. They have generally struggled to match their qualifying pace to their more competitive race pace. They do not heat the tyres up quickly enough to show the car’s true potential in qualifying, but come the race and they make better use of the tyres, getting more laps out of them before degradation becomes an issue.

A crude demonstration of this is to look at the average qualifying positions and compare them to the average finishing positions coming into this weekend.

Carlos Sainz’ average qualifying position was 4.78 and his finishing position was 6.30. For Leclerc it was 5.64 – 5.72, Russell 7.42 – 5.45 and Hamilton 6.35 – 4.57. The evidence of what has happened this season is that Ferrari drop back over a race distance and Mercedes improve. So George Russell wins today? He should do, but….

Low Degradation

This track is seen as a low degradation track. Tyre wear is not as critical as on most circuits. This is good news for Ferrari, but it is still relative. The tyres still degrade and they will degrade more on the Ferrari than on the Mercedes. So George Russell to win? He should, but….

This track sees more safety cars than anywhere else. There has always been at least one, but multiple deployments are common. This not a race that is straight forward for the race strategists. In fact, if I was a race strategist, I might just throw a sickie for the Singapore weekend.

As Rabbie Burns once wrote “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft a-gley.” That roughly translates as ‘everything can go tits up no matter how good the plan’. Everything can be going swimmingly until some driver way down the order sticks it in the wall.

Pitstops Pivotal

Any driver, and it could be the ones in the lead, may have just made a scheduled pitstop, costing nearly 30 seconds on this track, but those that didn’t now get a ‘free stop’.

They can pit under the safety car while everyone is circulating slowly and effectively steal a big lump of time over those that had already stopped. The random factor here is bigger than it usually is.

There is another thing about this track which will keep the strategists on their toes, and that is the power of the undercut. Past races here have demonstrated that the driver pitting first for a change of tyres, can jump the car ahead quite comfortably.

Tactical Battle

For today’s race we could well have the scenario that Sainz leads from Russell, but Russell pits first to get the jump on the Ferrari. He can then use the Mercedes’ better tyre wear to drive to the end of the race unhindered.

That is a bit contrary for a car whose strength is being able to stay out longer in the first stint and then have a fast finish to the race on fresher tyres. But on this track, that is what might work best.

Who blinks first will be fascinating. It is a gamble. Mercedes might pit first but then get hit by a safety car giving the advantage back. Most strategists will be thinking that starting on the mediums and waiting for the first safety car is the best route, and it could be. This is far from a straightforward race.

Past Races

To temper this random factor we can look at what has actually happened in the past. The very first race here under the lights was fixed.

The 2008 race had Renault deliberately crashing their number two driver to hand Alonso a strategic gain under the resulting safety car. He started fifteenth, and won. The second placed driver had started eighth.

Since then, the pole position driver has won eight of the next twelve races here. The third placed driver on the grid has won twice, the fifth placed once and the second placed once.

The reality is that, despite all the madness that can and does happen here, the driver on pole usually wins. His biggest threat has been crashing or getting pipped at the first corner, as happened to Leclerc last year. Leclerc also lost out on a win when Ferrari undercut him with his teammate, Sebastian Vettel in 2019.

History v Logic

History suggests that Sainz is the logical choice, but the way the two cars have performed this season, logic suggests Russell will win. The Mercedes is likely to be the faster race car, but on a street track, holding track position is worth much gold.

The long run pace from Friday’s practice session did show Ferrari to be a little off Mercedes and Sainz concedes that “race pace is still looks our weakest point”.

Mercedes have something of an ace up their sleeve. They have kept an extra set of new medium tyres. Russell said “With our mediums we can put Ferrari in a difficult position and try and force them into an error and get the upper hand. So that’s what we’re looking for.”

Pirelli are steadfast that it is not a big advantage as a two stop race will be slower due to the long pitstop times here, but if we get a safety car pitstop…yes, Mercedes do hold something of an advantage.

Sainz A Narrow Fav

What about the odds? Carlos Sainz is the 3.10 favourite, Russell 3.50, Verstappen is still the 6.50 third favourite and being backed for some reason, Leclerc 7.50, Norris 11.00 and Hamilton 17.00.

Outside of the fixed 2008 race, fifth place is the furthest back the winner has come from and that was the race where the three of the top 4 on the grid were out after a start line crash, allowing Hamilton to win from fifth. The rest of the winners have started top 3, and the vast majority from pole.

I will settle on George Russell. They have better race pace and strategically they are in a good place. They will have to execute it perfectly, but then again, if Ferrari are to win, they need to be perfect as well, and I’d put my money on Mercedes to pull it off over Ferrari every time.

History says that Sainz will win and it is a tough call. Sainz is in great form, has track position and his tyre wear problem may not be as big an issue as usual. But can Ferrari pull it off? I have my doubts.

2023 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 2 points George Russell to win @ 3.50 with Hills

Further down the grid we have other surprises. The two Haas cars qualified sixth and ninth. Like Ferrari, their race pace is well short of their qualifying pace. Even on a street track, they will have their work cut out to score points.

Magnussen qualified fourth in Miami and only finished tenth. They can be opposed. Alpine’s Ocon starts from eighth place and given their crazy season, if you wanted to pick a real outsider for a podium, it could be him. They don’t do logic.

Impressive Lawson

Liam Lawson may have got himself an F1 seat for 2024 with his tenth in qualifying yesterday. He knocked out Verstappen in the process and the rookie stand in has looked to be a cool head so far and points are not out of the question.

The Alpha Tauri has been upgraded this weekend and with the two Haas cars ahead of him likely to drop down the order, he might just be able to land his first points. We just missed out with him at Monza, but I’ll go again.

2023 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to finish in the points @ 2.75 with Hills

The only other driver really out of place is Oscar Piastri. He got caught out by Lance Stroll’s weekend ending crash in Q1. The McLaren driver starts seventeenth as a result and even in a pretty quick car, he’ll need some luck to make the top 10. His McLaren doesn’t have a full range of upgrades that are on Lando Norris car.

One driver who looks worth opposing is last year’s winner, Sergio Perez. His spin yesterday underlined just how bad his car is set up. He had complained of having no front grip and so it proved. Trying to drive a car like that round here for nearly two hours will be very challenging.

Finding a way to oppose him is difficult. Ladbrokes offer 1.57 Alonso to beat Perez, which he should, but the odds are a bit tight given it’s a street circuit. I’ll take a bit of a flyer and say that he doesn’t complete the race. Crashing is easy here and if you have no feel for the front end of the car, it is going to be tough.

2023 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez Not to be classified @ 6.00 generally available

Lewis Hamilton has been outshone by his teammate this weekend but he has been top 6 in every session and looks set to have a decent race.

He has been matched with Verstappen by Unibet and he looks worth backing. Verstappen is likely to improve on his starting position, but he is not expecting much at all. The pace just isn’t there and there is nothing the team can do to the car post qualifying.

2023 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Lewis Hamilton to beat Max Verstappen @ 1.67 with Unibet

-JamesPunt