2023 Spanish GP Qualifying Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Spanish GP Qualifying Update and tips. You can read his pre-race preview here.

2023 Spanish GP Qualifying

A light shower was enough to make FP3 bit of a waste of time with most drivers only getting five laps in before the rain arrived. Before it did, the Red Bulls were 1-2.

Max Verstappen has been fastest in all three practice sessions and nobody has laid a glove on him. Perez was second in FP1 and FP3 but only 4th in FP2. The chasing pack are closer to him, but so long as he doesn’t make mistakes, he should be able to lock out the front row with his teammate.

Of course more rain or showers could mix things up in qualifying but Max is hardly a slouch in the wet and his car will be producing the most downforce to keep him well stuck to the track.

It looks like Red Bull are taking the luxury of running more wing, which accounts for them not being fastest down the straight. That will also help minimise tyre degradation in the race and they look to have all bases covered.

Second Row Uncertainty

After Red Bull it is harder to say who is going to fill the second row. Alonso is on the premises, some think he has a shot at pole, I don’t. The other Aston Martin of Lance Stroll has struggled all weekend and he will have to pull his finger out if he wants to get into Q3.

Carlos Sainz has looked good so far. He got into a good rhythm yesterday but the Ferrari upgrades haven’t made the car noticeably faster.

The team say that they are in fact trying to make it more predictable, especially in the medium and fast corners. The time sheets suggest that they are still missing out. The slow corner pace remains good and the straight line pace likewise, but the medium and fast corner pace was not competitive.

Promising Alpine

Alpine are looking good to me. Fast down the straight and very good in the fast corners. They were not great in FP3, but we only had five laps and they may just have had more fuel in the car. Both should make Q3 if they get clear runs, but Ocon, fresh from his Monaco podium, looks the faster of the two so far.

Mercedes were not particularly happy yesterday, but they looked better today before the rain came. Yesterday they looked touch and go for Q3, but they look more likely now.

Haas were very fast, the fastest, on the straight on Friday which suggests they are running with relatively less wing than the rest. That’s good for the straight but I imagine their tyre deg would be bad on long runs. They were slower today so maybe they have put more wing on.

Mediocre McLaren

McLaren are looking mediocre. They might have one car sniffing around for 10th today but they are in the big heap of teams who could fail to get out of Q1 or sneak into Q3. It isn’t a driver’s track, but with everyone so close in the midfield, the driver can make a difference in qualifying.

If the qualifying session runs to the script the top ten should be made up of the two Red Bulls on the front row, Alonso behind them, maybe Sainz 4th, Leclerc 5th. Then the Mercs and Alpines in any combination.

If Stroll fails to make Q3, which he has in the last two races, who could sneak in and take his place? One of the Alpha Tauri’s looks possible. Tsunoda has done so inn two of the last three races, and De Vries is getting closer.

2023 Spanish GP qualifying: The Weather

While the rain wasn’t heavy in FP3, it started to rain properly for the F1 race. That was run with a rolling start and there was plenty of spray and low grip conditions. The rain eased off as the race progressed and the minutecast is for the rain to completely cease shortly before the start of qualifying, but some more rain is forecast for Q1 and Q2, but the forecasts are all over the place.

So it looks like changeable conditions for qualifying and that can mix things up. That doesn’t make for a great betting proposition. The Red Bull will be hard to shift, wet or dry, but changeable, i.e. wet-drying or drying-wet can throw in a big random factor.

Experience Important

The more experienced drivers tend to do well in mixed conditions as they will have more experience of them. Alonso has been very consistent in qualifying and with his experience he could profit. Lando Norris has good wet weather form and showed good pace in the last wet weekend. It is just a shame the McLaren is poor.

Verstappen is the 1.48 favourite, Alonso a 6.00 second favourite, Perez 8.5, Leclerc 10.00 and Sainz 26.00. I’ll take a chance on Alonso each way. He has qualified second in the last two races and while beating Verstappen will require luck, he may get the conditions to pull off the unlikely.

2023 Spanish GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Fernando Alonso to be the fastest qualifier @ 6.00 with LivescoreBet (1/3 the odds 1-2)

The weather seems to have put off some bookmakers from pricing up, that or they are watching the football. One bet in a session where the conditions are impossible to predict is enough for me.

-JamesPunt