2023 Spanish GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Update
We had no luck in a crazy qualifying session yesterday with Alonso finishing 9th. James Punt is looking to get back on track this afternoon, his 2023 Spanish GP Raceday Update is below.
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Preview
Yesterday’s qualifying was one of the weirdest sessions I have seen. The drivers on pole and in 20th were entirely predictable, the rest of the grid looks like it’s been put through a blender.
A heavy rain shower during the support race before qualifying had taken much of the rubber off the track and cooled the track surface. The tarmac on this track is strangely sensitive to changes in temperature and it caused havoc.
FP1 saw track temps of 42 degrees, FP2 37, FP3 27 and qualifying 25 degrees. There was a sprinkling of rain around lap five in Q1 and that was enough to send cars flying off the track and the session to be red flagged.
Our only bet of the weekend so far, Alonso for pole, was over in those five laps. He left the track at the new final corner which damaged his floor and cost him a heap of downforce.
The Weather
I’ll take a look at the teams and their prospects for today’s race. Before that, a check on the weather forecast. Again, they are not in agreement.
Light showers are possible say some, dry and partly cloudy with temperatures of around 24 degrees say others. The FIA’s own forecaster says a 40% chance of showers during the race. Not a great help.
Any rain would play its part in the result as even if it was just light, it would likely cool the track by a few degrees and turn it into a low grip situation like yesterday.
With less than an hour to go it is hot and sunny at the track, but there are some menacing dark clouds around. The minutecast says no rain for the next three hours, but others are saying the race will start wet, who knows?
Strategy
Tyres, there will be a lot of talk about tyres today. Pirelli are saying that there are a multitude of options for today’s race, and today’s race will be different to what we are used to at Barcelona.
The return to the fast double right handers leading into the long straight makes for a better flow, but it also puts more stress on the tyres. The tarmac here is abrasive, the track temperatures hotter than yesterday and the loads put into the tyres in the many medium and fast corners makes life tough for the tyres. A one stopper looks out of the question and while a two stopper is said to be optimal, a three stopper is also an option.
Start On Soft
Most of the top 10 are likely to start on the soft tyres, switch to the hards and another stop for more hards. Only eight drivers have two new sets of hard tyres, Including Verstappen, Sainz and Perez.
Those with only one set of new hards might have their first and final stints on softs with a longer mid race stint on the hards. Those nearer the back could gamble on starting on hards and running long before a couple of stints on the soft, or even try a three stopper.
The Teams
Red Bull
Verstappen hasn’t put a foot wrong so far and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t win. Fastest in every session, he is having a very nice weekend.
Perez on the other hand has reacted to his Monaco disaster by trying to drive like Verstappen, and failing. He has a great car but frankly, he is screwing it up. He needs the take a reality pill, accept he is second best and get on with trying to score as many points as possible and see where he finishes at the season end.
Trye degradation is going to be a big issue in the race and Perez is very good at tyre management. He also is in the car with the most powerful DRS. That should make passing at the end of the long straight into the first corner a lot easier.
If he can keep his head screwed on, he has the potential to finish second. My worry is that is head is in a spin and that is not a good mind set going into a race.
Ferrari
Much like Red Bull, they have one driver on the front row, the other nowhere. Carlos Sainz, the forgotten Spaniard, now has a great chance to get a podium in his home race. He has a solid record here and now the realistic chance of going at least one better that his 4th place here last year.
Trye degradation has been a big problem for Ferrari this year and it remains to be seen if their upgrades have addressed that problem. Their long runs on Friday showed them still trailing Red Bull, still a bit slower in the medium and fast corners. To win, Sainz needs Max to have a problem.
Leclerc will start from the pit lane. The team have taken the opportunity to not just fix the problem he had yesterday, but to give him various power unit parts. He was going to start from the back row in any case so it is a logical move.
His car suffered from an unknown problem and was basically undriveable. So long as the team have identified the problem and fixed it, he can move up the order and into the points, but his car is no Red Bull so don’t expect a podium.
He has never finished better than 4th in the past and He will do well to get close to that. There are suggestions that his rear suspension was the problem and that was a major part of their upgrade. If that is the cause, it is a potentially big problem for both cars.
Mercedes
We had the bizarre sight of Russell and Hamilton colliding at high speed heading down to the first corner in Q3. It resulted in a broken wing end plate for Hamilton and formal warning for Russell. George said he moved left to avoid a slow Ferrari coming out of the pits, but he gave it a very wide berth and put the squeeze on his teammate.
When the dust settled Hamilton finished in 5th place, Russell 12th. George wasn’t happy with the handling of his car and was struggling in both FP3 and qualifying. Hamilton is much happier with the revised Mercedes.
Their prospects for the race look quite good. Their race pace has always been better than qualifying. Hamilton has improved on his qualifying position by 2.33 places across the opening six races.
After a penalty for Gasly, Hamilton starts from 4th and a podium is very much on the menu. Russell has a harder job from 12th but he should make up places and will be aiming for a top 6, but when he started 11th in Baku, he could only manage an 8th place.
Aston Martin
Alonso’s hopes for a front row start were dashed when he left the track in Q1 and damaged his floor. He then had lost a chunk of downforce and could only manage 9th. He remains very confident that he can have a good race today.
Their long run pace on Friday was on par with Ferrari, but still a few tenths down on the Red Bull. He will go for it on the first lap and he will be good to watch.
Alonso does tend to improve on his grid position in the race but not by as much as Hamilton. He may have to settle for a champagne free afternoon for only the second time this season. The other was in Baku where he started from 6th. Today he starts 8th.
Lance Stroll outqualified his teammate for the first time this year. He had been all at sea in the three free practice sessions but found his pace in qualifying and he was sixth fastest in the end, starting 5th. The car has the pace to allow him to fight for a podium.
McLaren
From looking marginal for making Q3, McLaren got both cars into the top 10 and Norris starts third. His average grid position before this weekend was 12.67, so this was completely out of the blue.
The cooler conditions were credited with the improvement but Norris deserves the credit in my book. He excels in low grip conditions and while the track wasn’t wet, it was driving like it was.
His problem now is that his race pace is likely to be poor. He was around 1 second off the Red Bulls’ pace on Friday. Eighth place looks a realistic finish for him. Piastri starts from 9th and he will struggle to stay in the top 10.
Alpine
The revival at Alpine continued yesterday but it was still a disappointing performance. Gasly was the 4th fastest qualifier, which was excellent, but he blocked two other drivers during qualifying and picked up two penalties and has to start from 10th. He has the car to improve from there but he should have been in the mix for a podium.
Ocon now starts from 6th and his job will be to stay there. He will be quicker than Norris but he has the likes of Alonso and Perez in faster cars coming from behind him. Their long run pace on Friday had them 5th fastest so staying fifth would be a result.
Gasly starts in 10th and he should be quick enough to account for Piastri and Hulkenberg, but he is likely to be defending from the faster Red Bull of Perez and Russell in the Mercedes. Staying in the points will be a realistic target.
Haas
Another car in Q3 but their race pace is invariably poor.
Alfa Romeo
Bottas is usually very good in low grip conditions but he was out in Q1. Zhou starts from 13th and Alfa Romeo were one of the few teams to stack up where they deserved to be. They need luck if they are to score points as their long run pace was worst of all on Friday.
Alpha Tauri
De Vries finally outqualified his teammate for the first time this season, but he only starts 14th and their long run pace suggests that only Williams and Alfa Romeo are slower.
Williams
Were dependably poor. This track shows up a car’s true pace and the Williams is a poor car.
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Preview: The Race Winner
So long as he gets a clear run with no mechanical woes, Verstappen wins at the proverbial canter. He is the 1.25 favourite and I can’t argue with those odds, but he is not a betting position for me.
Podium Finish
The Ferrari had the second best long run pace on Friday, but it was very much in line with the Aston Martins and Mercedes were only a tenth off them. The big question here is tyre deg. Has the upgrade fixed the problem? If so then Sainz has a great chance, if not, he has no chance. We will find out later.
There is also the fact that he is in a Ferrari. If the team were a footballer, you would not pick them to take a penalty kick in front of an empty goal. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory could be their team motto.
McLaren’s race pace is unlikely to be good enough to allow Norris to compete for a podium but there are plenty of potential candidates. Lewis Hamilton is the obvious choice. He should have little problem getting past Norris and I suspect Mercedes are targeting second place.
Perez To Make Up Places?
Perez may only be starting 11th but he has the car to make up a lot of places. His mental state is making him error prone, however, and he might screw up again.
Lance Stroll has a competitive car and should have a decent chance, if he is good enough. He has not finished ahead of his teammate this season, but he did beat him in qualifying for the first time yesterday. Any rain would improve his chances as he is good in the wet, but otherwise, there are just too many faster drivers in contention.
Alonso expects to be in the hunt and you just have to look at this finishing positions this season to see why. He is starting from his lowest grid position of the season and it is not easy to overtake here. It would be a heroic drive for him to do it and I can’t write him off, but it is a big ask.
Sainz and Hamilton are both 1.80 to finish on the podium, Perez 2.30, Alonso 2.75, Norris 7.00 and Stroll 11.00.
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 1.80 with Hills, Betfair, Unibet
Top 6 Finish
It is the usual candidates who look priced accordingly. Ocon and Stroll are 2.20 and 2.00 respectively but there is a side market where Ocon makes much more appeal.
Points Finish
See above. Leclerc is just 1.50 to make the top 10. Perez 1.20 and Russell 1.33. It is hard to make a case for anyone else from outside the top 10 on the grid. Hulkenberg is 2.75 to stay in the top 10, Piastri 3.00, but I doubt they can.
Side Markets
LivescoreBet have a ‘without Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes and Aston Martin market’ (and so should others) and they have Norris as the 1.36 favourite. The second favourite is Esteban Ocon at a much more attractive 3.80.
Norris’ qualifying pace was a real surprise, Ocon was not. The Alpine has been showing top 6 pace in all but FP3 and their long run pace on Friday was a couple of tenths better than McLaren. Ocon is also feeling in fine fettle after his podium last weekend.
Pacy McLaren
The McLaren showed very good pace in the wet in Monaco and in yesterday’s low grip conditions, it performed equally well. The car’s ability to heat up its tyres quickly put them in the operating window while others floundered. That was perfect for yesterday’s conditions.
On a warmer track, which it will be if the there is more sunshine than yesterday, that quality will not be much use and over a race distance, everyone will get their temperatures up high enough. Keeping them cool might be more of the issue and maybe McLaren will find themselves in trouble from the very thing that got them so far up the grid.
As I mentioned in the preview, this track is very heat sensitive and its nature changed yesterday with overcast conditions and a much cooler track than we had on Friday.
Hot Track
The air temperatures of Friday were 25 and 24 degrees for the two sessions, with track temperatures of 42 and 37 degrees. For qualifying it was air temp of 21 and track of just 25 degrees. Today’s forecast is for more in the way of sunshine and air temperatures of 24-25 degrees. Expect the track to be nearer 40 degrees today.
That moves conditions away from McLaren and those cars that were good on Friday will get their preferred conditions back today. Ocon was 3rd and 5th in the two practice sessions on Friday, Norris, 11th and 14th.
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Esteban Ocon to win the race without the big four @ 3.80 with LivescoreBet
Guanyu Zhou out qualified Valtteri Bottas for the third time this season and he went on to beat the Finn in both those races. He gets a three place headstart today, one more than the two previous times he has started ahead.
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Guanyu Zhou to beat Valtteri Bottas @ 1.85 with LivescoreBet
Nyck de Vries finally outqualified Yuki Tsunoda having finished ahead of him for the first time at Monaco. Is he finally finding his feet? He is driving under pressure and the very least he must do is beat his teammate on a more regular basis. He has been faster in three for the four sessions so far and perhaps racing on a track with which he is much more familiar with is helping. De Vries looks worth a speculative punt.
2023 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nyck de Vries to beat Yuki Tsunoda @ 2.25 with LivescoreBet
Pierre Gasly qualified 4th and starts 10th, clearly out of position. He has been grouped with the pit lane starting Leclerc, Piastri and Hulkenberg. He has a faster car than everyone but Leclerc and get gets a big head start. Gasly looks worth backing at 3.00 to win Ladbrokes Group 3.
