2023 Thursday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Thursday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips
Bar Royal Way, Wednesday was a disaster. Smooth Tom finished a well beaten fifth, as did Crossing The Bar. The Model Kingdom was bang there at the last but her jockey almost steered her into the inner rail. I promise never to tip Enjoy D’Allen again. Charlie Uberalles hated the ground and Wayfinder couldn’t cope with the conditions. Dave Stevos is hoping to bounce back tomorrow, his 2023 Thursday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips are below.
12.40 – Irish Star Handicap Hurdle (80-116)
A huge field of 25 for this 20f handicap hurdle. We backed Music Of Tara in this last year and she probably would have won with a clearer run. She’s 5lbs higher today but I think she has huge claims again. Unfortunately, the bookies haven’t missed her this year and she is only a 7/1 shot.
Anything can happen in these races and one horse at monstrous odds who could spring a surprise is Imperial Ruler. Trained by Red McLoughlin, who provided us with our biggest ever winner in Lord Lariat, this horse has yet to encounter heavy ground. He has only raced on soft twice, winning a bumper and finishing second in a maiden hurdle.
Gets His Ground
He did win his maiden on good ground at Fairyhouse in April 2022 but afterwards, McLoughlin said he’d prefer a softer surface. Since that win he has come up dry in six runs but all bar one of those came on good to yielding or quicker. The other came on yielding last time out. Today will be the first time he has had testing ground since that maiden 2nd.
This horse looks like he is bred for bad ground. His sire has produced quite a few heavy ground winners and his dam is related to plenty too. Red McLoughlin hasn’t had a winner in nearly three months but two of his last five have finished 2nd and Finnians Row was running well before a shuddering mistake at Down Royal on Tuesday.
On the form of his maiden hurdle win (and arguably his 2nd) this horse looks well handicapped off 109 and with Micheal Molloy’s claim he is effectively in off 102. This ground, and the first time cheekpieces, give cause for optimism that maybe Imperial Ruler can outrun his odds of 80/1. A small e/w interest is advised.
2023 Thursday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tip: Imperial Ruler e/w @ 80/1 (6 places)
1.50 – jack De Bromhead Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
Irish Point is a warm order for this 3m Grade 1. Clearly, the son of Joshua Tree is a very talented horse but will 24f on bottomless ground be to his liking? His sire liked quick ground, his dam’s win came on good ground and while he did win on heavy in a French bumper (beating none other than Il Est Francais) that was only over 12f. Maybe he will stay, but I wouldn’t be taking a chance that he does at those odds.
Home By The Lee gets this trip well on soft but he has never had the chance to try it on heavy. He ran well over 20f on it behind Bob Olinger at Navan on his seasonal bow and he won this race easily on soft last year. If it turns into a slog, which is likely in this bog, I’d fancy Home By The Lee to grind it out better.
Asterion Forlonge has never won over this far and I’m not sure he wants ground like this. Buddy One brings 3 mile handicap form into the mix but he is unraced on heavy. I can’t have either Ballyadam or Beacon Edge so this is going to be a no bet race.
2023 Thursday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tip: No Bet
2.25 – Savills Chase (Grade 1)
This is an intriguing renewal of the Savills Chase. Galopin Des Champs is the fav but has last season’s Gold Cup left a mark on him, like it looks like it has on Bravemansgame. Fastorslow (twice) and Appreciate It have both beaten him since that brilliant display in March.
Maybe the return to Leopardstown and a left handed track might spark a return to top form but for me, he is best watched for now.
Gerri Colombe is the new kid on the block and his sole defeat came last year behind The Real Whacker at Cheltenham. The best horse definitely lost that day and The Real Whacker has looked a shadow of himself ever since.
He needed every inch of the 3 mile trip to get up to beat Envoi Allen at Down Royal and his stamina should come to the fore again today. Whether he has the turn of foot to win a Gold Cup remains to be seen but he is an extremely exciting prospect.
Overpriced
It could be argued that Fastorslow is overpriced at 9/2. He’s beaten the current Gold Cup holder the last twice, over today’s trip at Punchestown and then over 20f at the same track. He handles soft ground, he stays at least 3 miles and he’ll appreciate the return to that trip today. It’ll be fascinating to see how he fares against Gerri Colombe.
Irish Grand National winner I Am Maximus adds another layer of intrigue. He has already proved he has stamina in abundance and he surprised me when winning a G1 at Fairyhouse over just 20f on his return. Found A Fifty advertised that form here earlier this week and this 7yo son of Authorized should not be underestimated.
Show Some Appreciation
One that comes into this a touch under the radar is Appreciate It. He has run massive races in Grade 1s over a variety of trips on his last five starts. Bar a 10L 3rd behind El Fabiolo over 17f he hasn’t been beaten by more than 4.75L in the other four.
Another factor in this son of Jeremy’s favour is his love of Leopardstown. He has form figures of 11113 at this track and while all those runs were over shorter trips than today’s, he saw out the trip fairly well on the sole occasion he tried it under rules behind Feronily.
John Durkan
That form isn’t good enough to win this but he split Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs on his seasonal bow at Punchestown in the John Durkan over 20f. Less than 1.5L separated the three of them so for me, backing Appreciate It e/w at odds of 18/1 looks a no brainer when you look at the prices of the other two.
Then we also have the De Bromhead pair, A Plus Tard and Envoi Allen. The former horse is too unpredictable these days but Envoi was only a neck behind Gerri Colombe at Down Royal. However, I’d expect more improvement to come from the Elliott horse.
Appreciate It is the one that makes most appeal to me at the current prices, hopefully he can add another Leopardstown top three finish to his CV.
2023 Thursday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tip: Appreciate It e/w @ 18/1 NB
3.00 – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (4yo+)
Can King Eddie Cawley do us another favour in this Pertemps Qualifier. Ataboycharlie did the business for us already this week and now that he steps back up in trip, West Is Awake could regain the winning thread in this 24f contest.
This horse has never run on heavy but his sole try at 3 miles on soft ground resulted in an emphatic win at Fairyhouse in October. That came off 102 and he is in off 118 today but his last two runs over shorter have proved he can compete off his revised mark.
Not Disgraced
He was far from disgraced behind Espanito Bello at Naas off 118 in November. Ok, he was beat 16L into 6th of 19 but the trip was only 20f and it was a solid first effort in a race of that class. He again ran well back in calmer waters at Fairyhouse last time staying on well for 2nd, again over 20f, on soft off 115.
This 7yo son of Fame And Glory should be well suited by the step back up to 24f today. The fact that Cawley hasn’t booked a claimer suggests he thinks this horse will be competitive off 118 and Darragh O’Keefe is a solid booking. If he handles this heavy ground, West Is Awake can hopefully sneak into the places at odds of 12/1.
