2023 Thursday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Thursday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tips
Just one place at 10/1 with Chairmanoftheboard on Day 2. The other four all ran terribly. Cilaos Emery raced wide and faded, Cobalt Blue stopped quickly too and the less said about Barefoot Angel and Captain Wierzba, the better. It is always a tricky time of year with so many horses having their first runs so it is probably advisable to keep stakes very modest. We’ll try again tomorrow though, 2023 Thursday Newmarket Craven tips are below.
1.30 Cheltenham – Mares’ Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2)
It was slim pickings for us at Cheltenham on Wednesday but hopefully Lime Drop can make amends for us in this 20.5f handicap hurdle. Trained by Henry Daly, it looks to me like this race has been the plan for his 7yo daughter of Martaline for some time. She qualified by finishing 8th of 9 in a qualifying race at Bangor on her return and she then went close off 114 at Newbury in a 16f heat in December.
After a month off she reappeared in a low value race at Exeter (18f gd/sft) where she ran below her best. She has been freshened up again with a 78 day break, 11 days longer than her break before she ran so well at Newbury. Last season she ran in the final of this race which was run at Haydock (19f gd). That was the biggest pot she had ever competed for and she ran a blinder to finish 3.25L behind the winner Cubswin in 4th.
She stayed on well that day and this extra furlong should be right up her alley. Her best form has come on ground with good in the description so she should relish the conditions and she is in off a pound lower than she was in this race last season. A strong pace should suit this hold up sort and if she repeats the form of her run at Newbury off this mark in December, she should be staying on for place money at odds of 40/1.
2023 Thursday Cheltenham Tip: Lime Drop e/w @ 40/1 (5 places) nap
1.50 Newmarket – bet365 Handicap (Class 4)
Another handicap for 3yos only, this time over 6f. The one I’ll take a chance on in a wide open looking race is Grace Angel. This filly is by Harry Angel and she progressed very nicely at the backend of last season. Trained by Darryl Holland, she has run well on three of her four turf runs without getting her head in front.
After a decent effort on her handicap debut at Brighton she finally got off the mark at Wolverhampton. She made all in that 5f maiden, beating the now 77 rated Rock Girl by 1.25L. She subsequently finished 2nd over the same C&D twice, in a Novice when beat a head and then when beat 0.75L by her old adversary Rock Girl in a handicap off 70.
At Southwell she took her form to a new level, leading all the way to win by 3.25L off 71. The handicapper took a dim view and hiked her 10lbs for that run. On her last run of the season at Chelmsford she proved that mark wasn’t beyond her when staying on nicely for 3rd after blowing the start. On that evidence (and on breeding) this 6f trip should suit and two of her trainer’s last four runners have placed. David Egan was 3rd on this filly on his only previous ride on her, hopefully he can do the same again at odds of 28/1.
2023 Thursday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Grace Angel e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
2.25 Newmarket – Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3)
A maiden for unraced 3yos so it is going to be a guessing game. Two of the last four renewals have been won by horses at double figure odds, Peter The Great in 2021 at 11/1 and Sawwan at 25s in 2018. John Gosden has won the last two and he has won it three times in total since 2009. He runs Enrico Caruso this year and he is unsurprisingly pretty short in the betting. New Business is the fav for Balding and Murphy but his debutants usually improve markedly for their first runs.
Simon and Ed Crisford run two here and on jockey bookings, Tribute looks the first string. However, William Buick is booked for the ride on Penzance and unlike his stablemate, he hasn’t yet been gelded. This horse is by Wootton Bassett, one of the best sires in the business, and Buick has finished out of the first four just once in six rides (2 wins) for his owners, Newsells Park Stud.
His dam was a 3yo Listed winner in France over 10f and she is a half to G3 winning miler Cloudy Dawn. A little bit of cut in the ground should be fine for him and this looks the right trip to start him over. As we don’t know how these horses have been working at home, this is not a race for maximum stakes but odds of 12/1 are big enough to warrant a small e/w interest on Penzance.
2023 Thursday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Penzance e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes (Group 3)
Creative Force is rated 117 and he is 11/10 to land this 6f Group 3. Charlie Appleby has already had a couple of winners at this meeting and this horse is taking a marked drop in class. He didn’t win last season but he was placed in three of five G1 runs and he was beat less than 1L at the Breeders’ Cup by Caravel. A former C&D winner (a handicap at the meeting in 2021), he is the one to beat.
Our old pal Commanche Falls, who won the Stewards’ Cup for us at Goodwood, also runs here. He ran a cracker in a G3 at Ascot last season on good to soft and he is now rated 111. Michael Dods’ charge should be fit after a spin on unsuitably heavy ground at Doncaster and he did run well on his only previous visit here, winning his side of the draw in a big field 2yo sales race.
Quality Form
The last time this horse had his ground at Ascot in that G3 (6f gd/sft) he had Run To Freedom 2.5L behind him. That horse went on to finish 2nd in the Champions Sprint at Ascot, a neck in front of Creative Force and miles ahead of Garrus who also runs today. It is top quality form.
My only worry is whether Commanche Falls will be doing his best. If he is being aimed at all the big summer sprint handicaps, he’ll want to come down the weights. However, I think he proved last year that he deserves to compete at the top table and when he gets his favoured trip/ground he rarely runs a bad race. Still only a 6yo, there could be more improvement to come from this son of Lethal Force and if he tries, he is capable of placing at least at odds of 18/1.
2023 Thursday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Commanche Falls e/w @ 18/1 nb
3.35 Newmarket – bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3)
The big one. Eight were due to go to post but the withdrawal of Naval Power means we are down to just seven runners. At least that means the Godolphin 1-2 is out of the question, but they’ll still be expecting to land the prize with the jolly, Mysterious Night. He absolutely demolished the opposition in a Woodbine G1 on his last run of his 2yo campaign. His two runs in G2 company in Britain both resulted in defeat though and holes can be picked in the form of his last two wins.
The fav is by Dark Angel and so is his main market rival, Mostabshir. He has a very different profile, having raced just once as a 2yo. That resulted in a taking win at Kempton over a mile and he comes into the race completely unexposed. The Foxes is 7/2 and he ticks the C&D winning form box. He landed the G2 Royal Lodge here in September and though just four ran, it is rock solid form, arguably the best in the race. He could prove to be the value of the market leaders.
Keep The Faith
To be honest, when I first saw the field was reduced to seven I was going to sit this race out. However, after backing Dancing Magic in the Vertem Futurity (8f hvy) at Doncaster last season, I’ll have to give him another chance today. In that race he was a shade too keen early on and he ended up 9L behind the winner in 4th.
Previous to that G1 Roger Teal’s stable star finished a very decent 4th on nicer ground over today’s C&D in the Autumn Stakes. He had Killybegs 4L behind him and he ran a cracker here yesterday. At Haydock in early September he was just 1.25L behind Naval Power, who would have been a 4/1 shot if running today.
Kieran Shoemark rode on that occasion and he is back in the plate this afternoon. If he can conjure up a similar sort of performance today, Dancing Magic could surprise with a big run at odds of 20/1. Hopefully he is fit and ready to go on his return.
