2023 Thursday World Grand-Prix Darts Preview – JP
2023 Thursday World Grand-Prix Match Previews
Before we get into James Punt’s 2023 Thursday World Grand-Prix match previews and tips we will look back Wednesday night’s action.
Wednesday Action
Last night saw the end of all the ante post bets. Gary Anderson’s great form evaporated and he couldn’t get past an underwhelming Andrew Gilding, who continues to enjoy a charmed life.
Stepehen Bunting was beaten by the better player and there is no shame in that. Gerwyn Price was our only winning bet on what was more of a typical Grand Prix betting night.
It really is the worst punting event on the darting calendar. I must remember to get that tattooed on the inside of my eyelids. With that in mind, I’ll take a look at the last four of the second round matches.
Luke Humphries vs. Luke Woodhouse
An interesting matchup. The world number 6 Luke (number 5 if he wins this) and the journeyman pro Luke, who has hit the best form of his life.
Humphries beat Daryl Gurney in the first round. It wasn’t a great performance, it wasn’t a great match and had Gurney been near his A game, Humphries would have been out.
He will have to improve against Woodhouse who is free rolling now. Into the World top 40 and win here and he moves to 34th, on the cusp of that important top 32 mark.
Everything in Woodhouse’s game is trending in the right direction. His scoring is improving, his earnings are improving, his win rate is improving and his ranking is improving.
He will have the biggest spring in his step. He has won seven of his last ten matches and has been hitting some big numbers, even if his consistency is not world class.
Humphries Looking Ahead
Luke Humphries will have one eye on the next round, and indeed his first major title. He believes he deserves a place at the top table but he needs to earn that seat in the big events. He has proven himself on the floor and the Euro Tour but that isn’t necessarily getting him into the Premier League.
His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches. His performance vs. Gurney was an outlier in terms of its paucity. Even adjusted for the double in format he only averaged 90.2 (Woodhouse’s adjusted average was 103).
Before that match he was flying scoring wise with ten ton plus averages from thirteen matches. So which Humphries turns up tonight is crucial. He cannot afford another sloppy performance.
Tricky Format
This is a format were the better player can lose despite winning more legs. After three sets last night Gary Anderson was 8-3 up in legs but only 2-1 in sets and he went on to lose.
There is a lot to be said for sticking in and frustrating the other player, who can than start to miss the crucial doubles, both in and out. It is likely that Woodhouse will have to do just that.
We have to expect that Humpries will not be as poor as he was on Tuesday. Woodhouse is harder to judge. His consistency is not that great and I would say the odds of another very strong performance are around 50-50 at best.
H2H Favours Humphries
They last met just less than two weeks ago and Humphries was a comprehensive 6-0 winner in a Euro Tour quarter final. Their overall H2H record is 6-3 to Humphries and he has won both their 2023 matches easily, 6-1 and 6-0. They have had seven pro tour matches and only two required more than nine legs in a best of eleven format.
Humphries is the 1.28 favourite and Woodhouse 4.00. Unusually for this event, the favourite is being backed. Another shortish game would be no surprise, but Woodhouse is playing well enough to get on the scoreboard.
Humphries is 1.63 -1.5 sets on the handicap and 3-1 Humphries a 3.25 shot. There’s not much value here. No bet.
2023 Thursday World Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Michael van Gerwen vs. Chris Dobey
Much Like Luke Woodhouse, Chris Dobey was impressive in his opening match. He beat Van den Bergh 2-0 but each set went to a decider and he held his nerve well and looked confident.
Dobey is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches, but his last defeat was a 3-6 loss to MVG. But, before we write him off, he played MVG the day before and won 6-5.
Overall their H2H record is 16-4 to Van Gerwen and it must be said that Dobey will not relish this task. He has won four of their last ten, so his record has improved significantly on eleven straight losses.
Dobey’s Premier League experience this year gave him the chance to play the best week in, week out and while he was on the wrong end of the results more often than not, it looks to have improved his game. He famously gave MVG a 6-0 drubbing in one PL match but has lost three from four since.
Rock Smashed
Van Gerwen smashed up Josh Rock 2-0 and only dropped one leg. Rock is out of form and the result was no surprise, but MVG performed very well albeit there was nothing coming back at him.
He should face a stiffer task here. Dobey has a good tournament record (put in the shade by MVG’s admittedly) and he is more familiar with the format than most.
Dobey has won both his previous last 16 matches in this event, a 3-1 win over Gary Anderson in 2018 and a 3-2 win over Adrian Lewis in 2022. He has played MVG twice in the Grand Prix and lost a semi-final 0-4 and a quarter final 1-3.
It has been Van Gerwen who has ended both his good runs in this before. More of the same? That would seem likely.
MVG is the 1.33 favourite, Dobey 3.60. I can see Dobey getting something on the scoreboard and while Dobey is a better player in 2023, MVG is not the terrifying prospect of old, despite what he says.
Over 3.5 sets is just 1.53 and like so many of these matches, finding any value is hard. MVG to win 3-1? Just 3.40 which is a bit short for me. No bet.
2023 Thursday World Grand-Prix Tip: No Bet
Peter Wright vs. Ryan Searle
Wright is slowly getting back into form and his 2-0 win over Gabriel Clemens made it six wins from his last ten matches. It was a decent performance but nothing more.
Ryan Searle was more impressive in his 2-1 win over Heta. He was getting into the legs quickly but wasn’t lethal enough after that and should have won more comfortably.
Heavy Metal was five from five on his opening doubles in set 1 and lost it 2-3. He was two from three on the openers in set two and won that 3-0.
He won the final set 2-3 and he did miss four opening doubles but overall, his in shots put Heta under pressure as he was never allowed to get an easy lead. It was a good match and a good win for Searle.
Wright Leads H2H
Their H2H record is 9-4 to Wright. Searle won their only match in 2023, a 11-8 win at the Matchplay. They have played three TV matches, Wright winning two, an 11-10 win in the Players Championship finals final in 2021 and a 1-4 win the 2022 World Championships shortly afterwards.
Wright has regressed in 2023 and Searle has been the heavier scorer, but Wright’s most recent form is better and he remains hard to place.
Wright has won three of his five second round matches in the Grand Prix, Searle one from one. Both players have won six of their last ten matches and both are hard to get a handle on.
Searle is the 1.85 favourite, Wright 2.00. I find it as hard as the market to split them and that suggests a close match is more likely. Maybe a deciding set will be required?
2023 Thursday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point over 4.5 sets @ 2.75 with Betfair
Ross Smith vs. Joe Cullen
Smith snuffed out any chance of Jonny Clayton winning with a 2-0 first round win. Clayton was miles off his game and Smith played well, so the 2-0 was logical.
It wasn’t his best stuff but his consistency has been lacking of late and he is a hard player to predict at the moment. Smith has won six of his last ten matches.
Joe Cullen beat Mike de Decker 2-0 and his was a similar win to Smith’s over Clayton. De Decker didn’t play well enough and was outscored by Cullen. Cullen has won five of his last ten, and like Smith, isn’t the most consistent of players right now.
Closely Matched Scoring
Their H2H record is 8-7 to Cullen and they are very closely matched in terms of their scoring but Smith is the better 180 scorer. If he clicks in that department, Cullen will be hard pressed to get much out of the game. The good news for Cullen is that Smith hasn’t been in top form on the treble 20 of late.
These two met in the first round in 2012 and it was Smith who won 2-0. Cullen was very poor at getting into the game that day and it was an easy win for Smith, who wasn’t great himself.
Cullen has won one of his three second round Grand Prix matches, Smith has lost both of his and both went to a deciding leg. More of the same? Their record in regular best of 5 set matches shows a lot of close games.
