2023 UK Open Darts Outright Betting Preview- JP
2023 UK Open Darts Outright Betting Preview
The 2023 UK Open is a unique tournament on the darting calendar. It features 154 players, from amateur qualifiers all the way up to the world number 1 player in what is often referred to as the FA Cup of Darts. Like the FA Cup there are no seeded players but draws are made at the end of each round of matches and just like the FA Cup, the higher ranked players enter at the later stages.
The top 32 players on the PDC order of merit enter at the fourth round stage and at that stage the matches become best of 19 legs rather than the best of 11 for the first three. That is quite significant. The best of 11 leg format tends to give the lower ranked players a punchers chance of knocking out higher ranked player, but over 19 legs, the better players are expected to win more often than not.
Outsiders Can Go Well
A lot is made of the fact that random draw nature of the format allows for more surprises, gives the outsiders the chance of a big run, and there is some truth in that. We have seen some big outsiders reach the latter stages, but the list of tournament winner looks like most of the other darting majors.
Looking back at the last 10 years we have seen seven different winners, which is quite unusual. In those ten years, only Van Gerwen has won it more than once. He was victorious in 2015, 2016 and 2020. The other winners were Phil Taylor, Adrian Lewis, Peter Wright, Gary Anderson, Nathan Aspinall, James Wade and Danny Noppert in 2022. The only outsider to be runner up in the last ten was Corey Cadby and he was the Josh Rock of his day and not exactly an unknown quantity.
Four Places E/W
This a tournament in which most bookmakers pay out on each way bets on the first four (and if they don’t, don’t bet with them for this one), so it is worth looking at the semi-finalists for a sense of how many outsiders reached the pay-out zone. Last year we did get two outsiders as losing semi-finalists, Keane Barry and William O’Connor.
In 2018, the year of the great freeze and no spectators, we had Dave Pallet and Robert Owen reaching the semis. Alan Norris was a beaten semi-finalist in 2017 and Andrew Gilding in 2015. Otherwise the likes of Wright, Price, Gurney, Clayton, Taylor MVG, Barney and Bunting were hardly shocks.
It is worth considering ‘outsiders’ but they will have to be proper players who are in good form and will have won at least a Pro Tour event previously. This blog tipped up Nathan Aspinall in 2019 (and have shamelessly dined out on it ever since). He was a 126.00 winner but he was in good form, was a Pro Tour winner and very much on the radar. The only surprise was that he was allowed to go off at such generous odds.
The 2023 UK Open: Outsiders List
What constitutes an outsider is a matter of opinion, but in this case, I will say players with odds of 41.00 or more.
Joe Cullen
A well-established player who has won a TV title, multiple Euro Tour titles and Pro Tour titles. He has played in fourteen UK Opens but has never progressed beyond the quarter-finals. His recent form has seen some good darts and he reached the semi-finals of PC4.
His record in majors is not great but 2022 was a step in the right direction with a win at the Masters, the Premier League runner up spot and quarter finals of the World Series finals, Grand Slam and Players Championship finals. Odds of 51.00 are a touch generous and perhaps a tournament where he could get lucky with the draw might give him the chance to break his major duck.
Damon Heta
One of the heaviest scorers in the game, his 12 month average is 97.13, bettered only by Luke Humphries and MVG. His form in 2023 is poor with a win rate of just 45% and his seasonal average has dropped to 95.5. He has won the World Cup but he is another whose form in the majors is disappointing given his talent.
Heta did reach the quarter finals here last year but his recent form is poor, despite shooting the lights out more often than not. His last decent run was in a Pro Tour event in October when he reached the semi-final of PC28. He is a 41.00 shot, he has the talent to win it, but he is just a bit too inconsistent.
Jim Williams
The other Welshman to win a PDC title in 2022. Williams is not a full time professional despite having a tour card, he prefers to play a lighter schedule and keep his business running. He was very successful in the BDO, reaching the World Championship final, winning the World Trophy, runner up in the Finders Darts Masters and three other major semi-finals.
Since joining the ranks of the PDC he hasn’t made much of an impression at major level, but he is playing well. His seasonal win rate is 71% and his average is 97.22. He is putting in consistently good, high scoring performances and a good run at a very big price (151.00) is not out of the question. He enters at the third round stage which means playing one more match than the top 32 ranked players.
Ryan Searle
Just about qualifies as an outsider with odds of 41.00. He is in great form with a 2023 win rate of 77% and a seasonal average of 96.9. He won the first Players Championship of the year, was runner up in PC4 and was a semi-finalist on the Euro Tour last weekend.
Heavy Metal has also reached a major final at this venue, The 2021 Players Championship finals. He reached the 6th round here last year so he has good mental associations with Minehead Butlins, which happens to be close to where he lives. Searle is ticking a lot of the right boxes.
Ross Smith
Picked up his first major title at the European Championship last October and while he hasn’t shown that kind of form since, there were some good signs at the recent Euro Tour qualifiers where he qualified for both, and hit two ton plus averages, including a 112.
When he hits a lot of 180s, he is a very dangerous player. Before his European Championship win Smith’s best performance was a quarter final here in 2019. Smith is a streaky player, and he might just be ready to start playing his A game again. Odds of 67.00 are decent.
Chris Dobey
Hollywood finally got his first TV title at the start of the year with a win at the Masters. That elevated him into the Premier League so he is playing at the top level, week in week out. He has reached three ranking major semi-finals and was a quarter finalist at this year’s World Championship. He has reached the last 16 three times at the UK Open.
The worry is that he has lost five of his last ten matches and the PL, with all the associated travel, may be taking it out of him. He did take last weekend off to watch his beloved Newcastle fail to win the League Cup. A win may have lifted his mojo, but he could still have a decent run at odds of 51.00.
Daryl Gurney
It is a bit strange to be including a two time major champion in the outsiders list, but he is a 151.00 shot this weekend. Superchin has been dropping down the rankings in the last couple of years and the required confidence was slipping away, but there are signs that he may be on the comeback trail. His win rate in 2023 is 76% and his scoring is returning something like where it was a few years ago.
Daryl had an important win over Gabriel Clemens at the weekend, a player who he had a terrible record against. He overcame him in a top quality match, with a hostile crowd to deal with, in fine style. That he then lost to Luke Humphries in the next round due to a doubling desert, underlines that all is not 100%, but a return to a venue where he won his second major title, and a tournament in which he is a two-time semi-finalist, could fire him up.
The Likely Lads
While the tournament format offers up better chances of an outsider or two making the semi-finals, it is more likely that the winner will be amongst those players nearer the top of the market.
Gerwyn Price
The Iceman has not been picking up many titles of late, despite playing very well. His seasonal average is 97.5 and in four of his last five matches, before the PL matches on Thursday night, he hit ton plus averages, including a 108 and 109 in the Baltic Sea Darts Open.
Price has a very good tournament record with form figures of RU/QF/SF/RU/SF/QF in the last six seasons. The crowd at Minehead tends to be more darty than you get at a PL venue, and he doesn’t get the same kind of abuse as usual.
Michael van Gerwen
The 6.50 favourite and a three time UK Open winner. However, his 2023 form is a concern. His win rate is just 57% and he has lost five of his last ten matches (before last night’s PL matches). He has not been in great form and looks out of sorts.
Michael Smith
The world number 1 is enjoying his newly found status as World Champion, has a 2023 win rate of 75% and averaging 96.7. He has won seven of his last ten matches (before Thursday night’s PL) but he was suffering from a wrist problem in last weekend’s Baltic Sea Darts Open. That is obviously very important and It would be better to revisit this paragraph after Thursday’s PL, however time is not on my side this week.
Smith’s tournament record is OK, reaching the final last year and a semi-final in 2019, but that was the old Michael Smith. We now have Smith version 2.0, a two-time major champion and world number 1. In the last eight ranked majors, Smith has won two and been runner up in three.
Peter Wright
Snakebite won this in 2017 having been runner up in 2016 and 2015, a case of third time lucky. He also made the semi-final in 2013. More recently, he has not gone beyond the 6th round in the last five years. He has also won the Players Championship finals at this venue in 2021. His recent form is not good. His 2023 win rate is just 53% and he has lost seven of his last ten matches.
Luke Humphries
The 2021 runner up, Humphries continues to impress and improve. Four Euro Tour titles in 2022 got him used to winning titles and he is having good runs in ranked majors, reaching the semi-finals of the Players Championship finals and the Grand Slam, along with the quarter finals of the World Championship and European Championship.
He was runner up in last weekend’s Baltic Sea Darts Open, beating Gurney, Van den Bergh, Van Duijvenbode and Ryan Searle, before losing to Dave Chisnall in the final. A major title is the next thing on his to do list and he is full of confidence. He may very well follow in the footsteps of Danny Noppert and Nathan Aspinall and make the UK Open his first major title.
Dirk van Duijvenbode
The Aubergenius is in great form in 2023. His win rate is 78%, he has won nine of his last ten matches and picked up his third Pro Tour title two weeks ago. He has had decent runs here for the last three years, with two 5th rounds and he made the sixth last year. At 34.00, his odds are attractive.
Dave Chisnall
Can the ‘best player never to have won a major’ finally do it? Chizzy was in great form at the weekend, winning the Baltic Sea Darts Open. He hit three ton plus averages, including a 108 to beat Gerwyn Price in a fantastic match with Price averaging 107. His 2023 win rate is 76% and he has won nine of his last ten matches.
The worry is about going back to back. He lost the following match after winning his last two titles, both in 2022. His record in ranking majors is another issue. He has lost four finals and four semi-finals and that is a big worry when backing a 21.00 shot.
