2023 US GP Outright Betting Preview

James Punt is in red hot form at the moment. He landed some lovely winners at the last GP in Qatar and he is looking to cause the bookies more heartache this weekend. James will also have previews for qualifying and on raceday, his 2023 US GP outright betting preview is below.

2023 US GP

There are still five races to go before the end of the season. The Championships have been decided and we are only playing to see who fills the minor places and how the teams’ prize money will be divided up.

Out ante post bet on Perez to win ‘without Verstappen’ hangs in the balance. Somehow, he comes here still thirty points ahead of third place. He has been very lucky that there is no clear best second best team and no clear challenger for that second place.

It is Hamilton who is just 30 points behind, but his first round retirement in Qatar let the Mexican off the hook. Alonso was able to close the gap, but both of those drivers, the ones closest to Perez, are being outclassed by the resurgent McLaren.

Norris and Piastri are picking up podiums at will and that is giving Perez some breathing space. Norris is 88 points behind Perez and with just five races to go, with a couple of sprint races, it is a big ask.

This weekend we head to Texas and the Circuit of the America’s (COTA), and it is another Sprint Race weekend. That means just the one practice session to get the car sorted and set up before the qualifying session for Sunday’s race.

The 2023 US GP Track

The Circuit of the Americas was first used in 2012. It was a purpose built track, designed by tax dodging former F1 supremo Bernie Eccelstone’s favoured designer, Herman Tilke. It was designed to be a good all round test of a car and he drew inspiration from other tracks such as Silverstone, Istanbul and Hockenheim.

The first sector features an uphill climb to a sharp left hander into a fast flowing run, much like Maggots at Silverstone. After a hairpin turn, there is a long straight leading in to a tight, slow technical sector, inspired by Hockenheim’s stadium sector, and featuring a long, three apex turn inspired by the short lived Istanbul circuit.

All Round Test

It succeeded in being a good all round test of a car with each sector requiring different attributes in order to be fast. As such, it is more a car track than driver track.

The best car wins and since the start of the turbo -hybrid era, it has been dominated by the top two teams of recent years, Mercedes and Red Bull. Mercedes won five of the first six races here, a run broken only by Kimi Raikkonen in a Ferrari.

Red Bull have won it for the last two years. Ferrari have had three other podiums. Those three teams are the only ones to finish on the podium since 2014.

Sinking Track

There is one feature of the track which may pose a threat to Verstappen’s dominance. The track was built on (cheap) marshy ground and as a result it is in a constant state of sinking. This produces anything from big bumps in the road, to smaller, ripple like undulations.

Every year they have to resurface bits of it and various bumps have to get ground down, often between sessions, to reduce the severity of the bumps.

There has only been one race in which the Red Bull was second best in 2023. Singapore. A street race, and nothing like COTA, but it has one feature in common. It is very bumpy. As a result of the bumps, Red Bull had to raise the ride height of their car and they lost enough downforce to be beaten by Ferrari.

Possible Threat

That is not to say that Verstappen is going to lose, but it is worth considering a possible threat. I imagine Red Bull had a big post-mortem after Singapore and may have a better plan B this weekend, just in case the bumps are bad enough to force them down the same route. But while the overall layout of the track will suit the best car, there is a possible fly in the ointment.

The pole position driver has won half the races here, the other half have been won from second place. There is a real premium on a front row start.

The attrition rate has been above average with a high of eight in 2015, a low of two in 2019 and an average of 3.875. The first corner makes collisions likely. Some drivers will be tempted to make a drive into the apex, others to run wide and anyone in the middle can get sandwiched.

What happened last year?

Last year was the first time for the ground effect cars to run here and we had the two Ferraris qualifying first and second (Leclerc then had a ten place grid penalty to take). Verstappen was third, Perez fourth followed by the two Mercedes.

Carlos Sainz only got as far as the first corner before he was taken out of the race. That left the coast clear for Verstappen to take the win from Hamilton and Leclerc who has recovered from twelfth.

There were safety car deployments which bunched the field, but Verstappen was able to overcome those setbacks, and a poor pitstop, to win a thriller by five seconds in the end.

2023 US GP: Driver Records

With COTA being more of a car track than driver track, driver records may not be of that much importance, but some drivers have better memories than others.

Lewis Hamilton has won it four times and never been off the podium in the turbo hybrid era. Verstappen has won the last two and been on the podium for the last four years.

Charles Leclerc got a third place last year after finishing fourth twice. Carlos Sainz had six years of finishing between eighth and sixth but had a DNF last year. Yuki Tsunoda has had two points finishes from two races. Lando Norris has three top eight finishes from three starts.

The 2023 US GP Weather Forecast

Friday will be hot and sunny, and Saturday and Sunday will see a little more in the way of cloud and a couple of degrees cooler, but all three days will be dry and over 30 degrees.

2023 US GP: Team-by-Team Outlook

Red Bull

The team are now trying to get Perez to finish the championship in second place. How that is going to work is anyone’s guess.

Verstappen has never ceded a place to him and it would be a surprise to see Perez close enough to be afforded that luxury in any case. Perez’ problems rest in his own head and on a track that may be harder for the Red Bull than some, it is not hard to see Perez struggle once again.

Verstappen is going for a hattrick of USGP wins, and so long as the bumps do not upset the cars set up, he should do so.

Merecedes

The big news here is that Mercedes will introduce a new floor for this weekend. They are hoping for a tenth of a second improvement in pace.

That is unlikely to change the pecking order but the real aim of the design is to reduce the tendency of the car to bounce when they put on downforce. Even though we are not seeing the same violent porpoising as was the case in early 2021, the Mercedes is still said to have it as a limiting factor.

COTA has always been a good track for Mercedes and the team are aiming for another podium. Their car is good on tyre wear, which can be an issue here, but they are worried that the faster parts of the track will not help their chances.

The good news is that the track is not one dimensional. They will be strong in other parts and if the new floor allows them to produce more downforce, they may be able to trim back the rear wing to reduce drag.

Russell’s pace in the race in Qatar was very strong and but for the two Mercedes hitting each other, who knows where they could have finished.

Ferrari

While Mercedes and Red Bull have largely dominated here, Ferrari have been best of the rest and have got one win. This year’s tyre degradation problems might hurt over a race distance on Sunday, but do not rule them out in the two qualifying sessions.

They were first and second in qualifying last year and there are parts of the track on which their car could be strong.

McLaren

With five podiums from the last three races, McLaren are the form team. The Suzuka and Losail tracks were very well suited to the strengths of the McLaren and they scored back-to-back double podium finishes.

This track looks a bit removed from their sweet spot and it is the final sector where they may just struggle a little. That said, they are still top 6 contenders at the very least.

Alpine

Largely forgotten about, Alpine has scored points in the last three races. They remain very much on the cusp of the top 10 in any race but they are very hard to predict.

They qualified 7th and 8th in Qatar and both finished in the top 10 but Gasly was given two time penalties for track limits and was demoted to 13th. Will this track suit? I have no idea.

Williams

Targeting the other race in the USA (Las Vegas) for their best chance of a decent points haul. Sargeant has retired from three of the last five races, remains pointless and a home race is arguably not what he needs.

Albon finished 5th here with Red Bull, but while the Williams will be handy in the second sector, the final sector will hurt them and with downforce levels at medium to medium high, this is not in their car’s sweet spot.

Alfa Romeo

They have started to get a bit more out of their car after fairly recent upgrades. A double points finish in Qatar yielded six points and suddenly they are just six points behind Williams. They have something to aim for now. Botas did get a win with Williams here, but outside of that it has not been a happy hunting ground. Like Alpine, Alfa Romeo are hard to pin down, but any points they could score are small ones.

Haas

It would seem a bit late for Haas to be introducing a significant upgrade but that is what they are doing. It is their home race of course, but it will need to be some upgrade if it is to return them to the points.

The car has decent one lap pace, but their tyre deg is the worst on the grid. I have been doing this job for many years now and it is very unusual for a car that has the trait of destroying their tyres in the race but be good in qualifying, to be able to change that without just being slow.

It tends to be a baked in design problem and the fact that the Haas shares DNA with Ferrari, which has similar problems, confirms it. Ferrari have mitigated it with setup changes, but they have not been able to ‘cure’ it. If Ferrari can’t, why should Haas?

Luck Required

One point scored from their last twelve proper races suggests that they will be outside the points again. They did pick up a couple of sprint race points in Austria, but they will need some luck if they are to add to their tally.

Introducing an upgrade in a sprint race weekend is not ideal. The team only have one session to find and gather all the data to try and find the best set up. That’s like hoping to hit the Bullseye with your first dart.

If they are to cause a surprise, it could be in FP1. A low fuel glory run at home would be no surprise, but they will have to have hit that Bullseye.

Alpha Tauri

Daniel Ricciardo returns following breaking his hand at Zandvoort. He has picked up a couple of podiums here and loves playing to the gallery with some gimmick or other.

In terms of the business of racing, Alpha Tauri have scored points here in the last two visits, both with Yuki Tsunoda. Their car has shown improved form and while the points have not been flowing in, at least they have been knocking on the door.

Tsunoda is being linked to a move to Aston Martin (going with the Honda power units) and also rumours that Red Bull boss Christian Honer would be glad to get rid of him. His head must be in a bit of a spin.

This will be Ricciardo’s second grand comeback of the season. His last yielded finishes of 13th and 16th and I don’t expect much more.

2023 US GP: Summary

Red Bull are in cruise control having wrapped up the two titles. All they have to do now is to try and guide the hapless Perez to enough points to get their first ever 1-2 finish in the drivers’ championship.

Verstappen will be driven to win as many races as possible, but the feeling is that this weekend could be a bit of a banana skin. That all depends on the state of the track.

Mercedes have a new floor, a great track record and they look to be right in the picture. McLaren will not have everything their own way this weekend and they are not nailed on for a podium, never mind a double podium.

Ferrari have been competitive here in recent years but will they have the race pace to mix it with Mercedes and McLaren?

Ante Post Selections

The only team I want to bet ante post this weekend is Mercedes. This has been a very good track for them, even last year when their car was poor.

It is still not a good car but it is better and they showed great race pace in Qatar. That was a track that wasn’t supposed to be a good one for them and this track looks a bit more in their sweet spot, a sweet spot which should be bigger if their new floor works as planned.

Downforce

These floors are the big downforce generator in ground effect cars. We can’t see it, so we can tend to ignore it.

However, one reason why the Red Bull is so good is because of their floor. McLaren have made huge mid-season strides and the big area of improvement? The floor.

Mercedes are not an underfunded bunch of guessers and with the reshuffle of the designers a few months ago, ditching the zero pod concept, they will have had a literal ground up rethink. Get the floor right and you can start to refine the design above the floor.

Lewis Hamilton to finish on the 2023 US GP podium 1 point @ 3.80 with Livescorebet

George Russell to finish on the 2023 US GP podium 1 point @ 4.33 with Livescorebet, Betfair

Mercedes double podium finish at the 2023 US GP 1 point @ 11.00 with Hills, BET365

There will be an update for qualifying on Friday around an hour before the session starts. The update for the Sprint Race will be around an hour before the session starts. Race Day update will be around four hours before the start of the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt