2023 US GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2023 US GP Qualifying Preview
James Punt has already posted his outright betting preview, read that here. James will also have previews for the Sprint Race and on raceday, his 2023 US GP qualifying preview is below.
2023 US GP Qualifying
The only free practice session of the weekend was never going to be a great guide, but it is pretty much all we have got.
The first impression is that the track is, indeed, very bumpy. Visually you can see the cars being shaken by some big bumps but there are lots of smaller ones which must be making it tough for the drivers to see properly. It is a real bone shaker.
However, it hasn’t yet slowed Verstappen down much. He was 0.156 ahead of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and 0.281 in front of Hamilton in third.
When Red Bull were hit by the shakes in Singapore, Verstappen was back in third place after FP1. That wasn’t a sprint weekend and we are comparing apples and pears to some degree, but I would say that while things are not ideal for Red Bull, they are not struggling anywhere near as much.
Perez was up in 4th place which underlines that they are not in any great bother.
Data Gathering
It looked like the teams were not really going for outright pace. They had to try and get data for the race and not just today’s qualifying. Was Russell carrying more fuel, Lewis less? It would make sense to try and cover as many bases as possible in a one hour session.
The only clear losers so far are Aston Martin. Both cars needed work on the front brakes. Stroll only completed five laps, but Alonso got out late in the session and manged nineteen, which was the second fewest.
Their pursuers, McLaren, stood out for not doing any running on the soft tyres. They ended up 15th and 19th and the fastest one, Norris, 1.344 off Verstappen’s time. The difference between the hard and soft was 1.586 for Verstappen, so the medium to soft would be less. Time corrected, it still looks like McLaren are three or four tenths off.
Competitive
Qualifying has been the more competitive arena this season. The Red Bull not quite as dominant as in the races. In the last seven race weekends, Verstappen has been on pole four times, Sainz twice and Hamilton once.
The drivers to have qualified in second place are Verstappen twice, Russell twice Piastri once, Norris once and Leclerc once.
That suggests we are once again looking at Verstappen on pole, and if not, second. Sainz got his poles on the outlier tracks of Monza and Singapore and he was on the pace there from the word go. So far, the Ferrari of Leclerc has been quicker than Sainz, as he has been for the last two races.
The McLarens do look to be a little bit outside of their sweet spot and their race pace has been more impressive in any case.
Big Jump
Mercedes made a big jump from FP1 to qualifying in Qatar for the last sprint race weekend. They ended up 2nd and 3rd, having been 8th and 13th in FP1. This is a good track for them and they look to be the more likely of the possible upsetters.
George Russell has qualified second in two of the last three races, but Hamilton is very quick here. So, which one of the Mercedes’ drivers to go for? It is a bit of a toss-up, but the odds will be the guide.
Hamilton is just 9.00 while Russell is 19.00. There has been very little between the two in qualifying in 2023 and the difference in odds is unreasonable.
