2023 US GP Sprint Race Preview

James Punt has already posted his outright betting preview, read that here. We were out of luck with our qualifying bet on Russell yesterday, he had a bit of a mare with track limits. You can check out James’ 2023 US GP Sprint Race preview below.

2023 US GP Sprint Race

The joys of track limits returned to mix up the gid for Sunday’s race, but today is given over to the Sprint race.

It is hard to overestimate the need to have hit the ground running on a sprint weekend. Just one practice session to gather data and set the car up for the rest of a busy weekend.

With qualifying completed, the cars are under parc ferme conditions and as such, the setups are now locked. If the car has struggled on Friday, it is unlikely that it is suddenly going to find anymore pace for the rest of the weekend.

The weather is set fair and while the track will evolve to some degree, this is not a once a year venue and it is a mature surface.

Red Bull

Not having it all their own way this weekend. The very bumpy surface isn’t helping but the car was suffering from some understeer yesterday. This is likely to be due to a tendency for it to take a little longer to get the front tyres into the right temperature window.

That isn’t going to be a problem after a few laps, so I expect their race pace in the sprint and tomorrow’s race to be more competitive.

Verstappen was chasing his final lap in Q3 yesterday after a mistake into the first corner, and eventually he pushed just a fraction too hard and lost the lap.

Perez looks just as slow and as low on confidence as ever. He will see that Hamilton is poised for a good weekend and that his second place is under real threat. Pressure and Perez rarely go well together.

Ferrari

Good top speeds and the car has looked hooked up from the start. They are in a good position for the rest of the weekend but as usual, the real test for Ferrari is race pace compared to qualifying pace.

Leclerc has performed with great consistency on the this track, 4/4/3 in the last three races and he has put himself in the frame for another podium. Sainz was OK, but just never quite as well dialled in as Leclerc.

Merecedes

We are invested in the team this weekend and so far so….OK. Hamilton’s track record is very strong and he was third in both Friday sessions. The Mercedes is a better race car than qualifier which bodes well for his podium chances.

However, both the Mercs were noticeably slow on the straights. Their car has been draggy all season and I had thought that the new floor might have helped them to be able to take a bit of wing off and help with straight line pace, but not so. That does make them vulnerable on the long straight and blunts their ability to attack.

George Russell just didn’t find the sweet spot on Friday. He said that qualifying 5th was as good as he was going to get. He admits the blame lies at his feet as the car is better than his results suggest. Hopefully he can find some answers before tomorrow’s race. He used up too many soft tyres to make the most of today’s sprint shoot out and this evenings race has been compromised.

McLaren

The track may not be as perfectly well suited to their car as Qatar was, but they remain podium contenders.

Norris ended qualifying in second place after Verstappen lost his final Q3 time and a front row start has been a prerequisite of winning this Grand Prix. Piastri is making his first appearance here and he looked to be struggling all day on Friday.

Norris is in the hunt for both the sprint and Grand Prix.

Alpine

Both cars into Q3 was a good result for the most unpredictable of teams. With Aston Martin in the bin this weekend, the coast is clear for Alpine to score points.

Both drivers were happy with the car’s set up and while they are not going to be up with the big boys, one of them could match Alonso’s seventh place here last year.

They qualified in the same positions in Qatar but dropped a few places in the sprint shoot out, and both missed out on the sprint race points. They were poor in the sprint shoot out and their eyes are really on Sundays race.

Alpha Tauri

Able to take advantage of Aston Martin’s woes, but still not good enough for Q3 on Friday. Ricciardo was a bit rusty while Tsunoda does his usual thing of almost getting it done but ended up 11th.

They have brought some aero updates and found it difficult to get the most out of them with so little practice time. Hard to see anything more from them this weekend.

Ricciardo was 11th in the shootout, Tsunoda only 19th after a muddled final lap attempt saw him miss out on a final lap.

Alfa Romeo

Much like Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo are flattered by Aston Martin being poor, and they still can’t make an impression on the top 10. It says a lot when Bottas was quite pleased with being 13th.

They may be able to scrabble a car into the points on Sunday, but it is far from certain. They were worse in the sprint shoot out.

Haas

The much heralded upgrade delivered not very much in terms of pace. Both were well inside the top 10 in FP1 but who knows how much fuel they were running with?

Come qualifying and they looked very ordinary. This may not have been a bad thing. Their problem is tyre degradation over race distances and it is likely that any fix for that, and that is what the upgrade was all about, will have had a negative impact on one lap pace. We will learn much more about the Haas upgrade in the sprint race.

Hulkenberg blamed traffic for a poor lap, which kept him in Q1, and said the car was better than where he ended up. Magnussen was more realistic and said that the proof of how good, or not, the upgrade is comes on Sunday. He was not expecting any improvement in one lap pace. Their sprint shoot out was disappointing but not surprising.

Aston Martin

The bad Alonso was showing himself yesterday. He looked very pissed off after both cars failed to get out of Q1. Stroll you expect to fail, but Alonso was made to look poor in a car with a raft of upgrades which clearly didn’t work.

He was questioning bringing them to a sprint weekend and it looks like he is beginning to fall out with another employer.

The team executed their final laps in Q1 poorly which further irked Alonso, as did having the brake problems in FP1. Without a motivated Alonso, this team has nothing. The shootout qualifying was better, but they are very much a midfield looking outfit right now.

Williams

Sergeant took his usual place at the bottom of the time sheets. Albon was not much better in 18th. They had looked in decent shape in practice but couldn’t get the tyres switched on in qualifying.

Both drivers said the car just felt different from session to session. It is due to be a bit more windy today and that could make life more difficult, but Albon is capable of better in the sprint race.

Albon is optimistic that he can do something on the medium tyre this evening. A point is possible but odds of 1.73 are too short.

2023 US GP Sprint Race: Summary

We have had four Sprint race weekends so far and in terms of converting the sprint shootout pole into a sprint race win, it has been three from four.

Perez won the sprint race in Azerbaijan from second on the grid, but the last three have gone to the pole sitter.

The tracks have all been very different and I’m not ready to read too much into past sprint weekends as a great guide, especially as two of them were in the first half of the season and things have changed a lot since. Except Verstappen still being the quickest.

No Pit Stop

We now have a mini race with no mandated pit stop. The soft tyre looks significantly faster than the medium but it is unlikely to be a choice, even for a sprint race, the degradation looks to be too high. The medium looks to be the best tyre for a sprint.

Verstappen looks in a strong position. The Red Bull looked like a better car today. Nothing can be changed since yesterday’s qualifying, but it looked planted and predictable.

He starts from the front row, which has been half the battle on this track and he has converted both of his sprint poles into sprint race wins. He was only a tenth faster than Norris in fourth, so there is no great pace advantage over one lap, but he starts from pole and that remains a good advantage.

Leclerc Second

Charles Leclerc starts second, and that is not a bad place to start from. Some say that it is better to start from that side of the track and in races here, starting second has won as many races as pole.  Let’s say he is not losing out by being second on the grid.

Tyre deg, even in a short format, is still his main threat. The track is hard on tyres in terms of lateral loads and traction events. You need good tyre use to perform at your best and Ferrari may not have that.

Lewis In The Mix

Lewis Hamilton was right in the mix despite the Mercedes looking like the hardest car to drive of the top four on the grid. It is very stiff and bouncy over the bumps which must be uncomfortable.

He knows how to win here and the Mercedes has been better over race distances compared to qualifying. A sprint race lessens that characteristic to a degree but if tyres are marginal, then Hamilton could be a feature at the end. Poor straight line speed is a worry.

Lando Norris was not making very encouraging comments after the shootout, especially about their pace on the mediums. The track isn’t ideal for them but he’s still right up there. To win today seems like a big ask.

Max Strong Fav

It looks to me like Verstappen is a strong favourite. He is the 1.33 favourite which is of no interest betting wise. Leclerc is the 7.5 second favourite with the each way books, Hamilton 17.00 and Norris 19.00.

Of those four, and I would be surprised if the winner/second place came from outside the top four, any value looks to lie with Hamilton.

He has been third in every session so we know the car has competitive pace. We know that the car is generally better over long runs than qualifying and that tyre wear is an issue, Hamilton is strong in that area. He is also very good on this track.

He is likely to be playing for second place but I’ll have the smallest of bets on him for this evenings race.

2023 US GP Sprint Race Tip:  0.5 point e/w Lewis Hamilton to win the Sprint race @ 17.00 with BET364, Betfair

I am happy to keep the powder dry until tomorrow’s race proper, so just the one small bet tonight.

-JamesPunt