2023 US Masters Preview and Tips

The start of the 2023 US Masters heralds the arrival of spring in the northern hemisphere, but this weekend’s weather in Augusta, Georgia is going to be distinctly un-Spring like. Humid, thundery conditions are expected for Friday but the chances of thunderstorms have receded and Friday looks to be the best day in terms of weather, but there could be stops in play due to ‘electrical activity’ in the area.

Friday and Saturday will see plenty of rain around and there is a flood watch warning in place for both days. Heavy rain and cooler temperatures for both days all day, accompanied by gusty winds suggests that we might not see much golf and any that we do will be played in tough conditions. Sunday is better, dry, but cool and little chance of any thunderstorms.

Monday Finish?

This has a Monday finish written all over it. These sort of bad weather conditions can throw in a big random factor. Some players can get lucky with the weather but as it stands, the forecast suggests that things are going to be fairly evenly horrible for everyone, except for Thursday and Sunday, when they should be reasonably even for early and late starters.

There is a chance that the afternoon starters on Thursday could face some rain and slightly stronger breeze. The earlier forecasts had the afternoon hit by thunderstorms and heavy rain, but that has now been shifted towards Friday.

Soft and Long

The heavy rain will make the course soft and play long. Augusta has been extended over the years to ‘defend’ against the increasing numbers of players who are driving the ball well over 300 yards. A couple of weeks again we saw Rory McIlroy put his drive on a 378 yard hole to a couple of feet. He carried the ball 345 through the air. That is not golf as I know it.

This year the card of the course has Augusta playing 7545 yards, not excessive these days for a tournament par 72. However, the course plays longer thanks to the fairways being cut in the direction of the tee. The knapp of the grass is against the roll of the ball and effectively makes the hole play longer.

This means the extending of the course just plays into the hands of the gym bunnies who can smash it off the tee. Short hitters need not apply. Add to that the deluge of rain on Friday and Saturday, the balls are more likely to plug, meaning it will play longer still.

Undulating Fairways

Augusta is famous for its undulating fairways which can carry the ball away from where it lands. It requires better shot making from hanging lies and puts a premium in putting the ball into the right areas. That comes with experience from both player and caddy. Plugged lies may negate this defence to some degree.

The approach shots into the huge, fast, undulating greens are seen by many as the key to good scoring at Augusta. Avoiding downhill putts is key, as is hitting the green. Unlike most courses, there is no rough around the greens here, there is very little rough anywhere here, and scrambling requires a different skill set than the players are used to.

Again, experience can play dividends. The greens have sub air system which basically sucks excessive moisture out of them so they should remain the firmest part of the course.

Tough Challenge

All in all, it is a very tough challenge. The par 5s are scoreable, especially for those that can reach in two shots, but a good round here depends as much on avoiding bogeys on the par fours. Patience is rewarded here.

Attack too hard and you are likely to come undone. Let a bogey get you blood pressure up, and another will be along shortly. This is not a chaser’s course, but it is easy to blow a lead. Just ask Rory.

We are looking for a long driving player with a lot of experience of the course. A player who has excellent approach play, good scrambling skills and a patient demeanour. A caddy with plenty of experience will also help.

Golden Rules

There are some ‘golden rules’ for betting at Augusta, such as don’t back rookies and don’t back the defending champion. This year the defending champion is Scotty Scheffler and the only thing against his chances is that he carries the curse of the defending Champion.

Only Nicklaus, Woods and Faldo have defended a Masters title. It can be done is one argument, that it has only been done by three of the greatest exponents of the game is the other.

The 2023 US Masters Shortlist

Apart from that, Scotty Scheffler has excellent claims. His form is top notch. His last five events have seen finishes of 1/12/4/1/4 and his course form 19/18/1. Scheffler’s laid back nature is an asset. He is ranked 1st for shots gained (SG) off the tee, 1st for SG tee to green, 1st for greens in regulation, 6th for SG approach to the green, 6th for driving distance, and 8th for scrambling. An excellent skill set for this course.

Putting is his weakness, only ranked 82nd for total putting, but he is 3rd for three putt avoidance and as bogey avoidance is important on this course, it helps, and he is ranked 1st for bogey avoidance. He is very hard to ignore.

Best Scotty Scheffler odds – 8.50

Ireland’s hopes rest largely on the shoulders of Rory McIlroy. This is the missing piece of his major title jigsaw. The one he needs to land a career slam. Nobody is better off the tee and he has tweaked that part of his game by bringing a new driver onto play. He is ranked 1st for driving distance and 2nd for carry distance, important when the fairways are soft and not running out. He is 7th for SG approach to green.

Solid Form

His recent form is good, picking up a title in 2023 and having a 2nd and 3rd place in recent weeks. His course form sees seven top 10s in the last nine years. Rory’s weakness is with the putter. He has introduced a new one into his bag recently, but in 2023 he is ranked 178th for SG putting.

That new putter has a lot of heavy lifting to do if Rors is to win. He is 100% from 3ft but from 6 or 7ft, you don’t want him putting for your life. His recent record in majors is the big no-no for me. He hasn’t picked up a major since 2014. There are a lot of top 10s, 17 since his last win, and the pressure grows with each year dry.

Best Rory McIlroy Odds – 8.00

John Rahm has been one of the players of the season, winning three titles, but he had to withdraw from the Players Championship last month due to illness and he has played just once since and didn’t really fire at the World Matchplay. Not an ideal build up.

His stats make for impressive reading, 1st for SG total, 1st for eagles per hole, 1st for birdies per hole, 1st for scoring average. He is 4th for SG approach to green and 12th for SG putting. His all-round game is superb. Driving accuracy is a weakness, but that might not be a big problem here as there is no rough to speak of.

He is 10th for bogey avoidance and despite his reputation for being a hot head, he has matured in that department. Rahm’s course form is good with four top 10s bookended by two 27th finishes.

Best John Rahm odds – 10.00

Jordan Spieth really should have won back-to-back in 2015 and 2016. He was 2nd on his debut in 2014, won it in 2015 and was second in 2016, throwing it away on Sunday, giving Danny Willet his big chance. He has had a couple of top 3 finishes since, but he isn’t the player he once was. His last major title was in 2017 and his is winless this season.

Best Jordan Spieth Odds – 17.00

Patrick Cantlay is in good form with form figures of 3/4/19/9 coming into this, but his Augusta record is only reasonable with a best placed 9th place in 2019. He is winless in 2023 but has had three top 10s in his last four events. He came close in 2019 and was leading on the final day for a while but his record here overall is not great.

Best Patrick Cantlay Odds – 22.00

Justin Thomas has finished in the top 25 for the last five years and has a 4th and an 8th in the last three. He is in decent form, with a 10th place in his last outing. Thomas picked up his second major last year with the USPGA Championship.

He has a masters specialist caddy on his bag and that has improved his reading of the greens. Ranked 1st for SG around the green but when he gets on the dancefloor he is just 147th for SG putting. A GIR ranking of 132nd is not great either.

Best Justin Thomas odds – 23.00

Tony Finau has been a bit of a nearly man in majors, racking up plenty of top 10s, but yet to win one. He was never a great title winner full stop, but he picked up two wins lasts season and won one this season. His Masters record sees three top 10s in the last five years so he knows his way round.

He is 4th for SG total, 3rd SG approach to green, 23rd SG putting and 9th for greens in regulation. Finau is not as complete a player as the very best, but another high finish would be no surprise.

Best Tony Finau Odds – 26.00. Best chance, top 10 finish @ 3.20 Ladbrokes

Xander Schauffele is another player whose recent and course form puts him on the radar. He has had two top five finishes in the last four years at Augusta and his recent form sees two top 5s from his last seven tournaments. Not the best off the tee, but is 9th for SG approach to green and 20th for SG putting. Another good run is possible, but he hasn’t won this year and there are better options.

Best Xander Schauffele Odds – 26.00

Outsiders to Consider

Sungjae Im decent odds for a player who has finished 2nd and 8th in two of the last three years. Three top 6 finishes in his last seven events shows that he is in decent form. Ranked 12th for SG total, and particularly good on the par fives. Steady rather than spectacular, he can play the course and may well figure at some stage, if not on Sunday evening.

Best Sungjae Im odds 36.00. Best chance, 1st round leader @ 41.00

Justin Rose hit the post here in 2015 and 2017, finishing second both times. He was 7th in 2021 and has played some good stuff this season, winning at Pebble Beach in February and was 6th at the recent Players Championship.

This will be his 18th appearance at August and he has been the first round leader four times, including two years ago. Distance off the tee is not the best and that may hurt in soft conditions.

Best Justin Rose Odds – 61.00. Best chance, 1st round leader @ 46.00

Tom Hoge ranks 1st for the important SG approach to green and 14th SG total. He was 39th on debut last year and most recently he finished 3rd at the Players Championship. Not a likely winner but might be in the hunt for a high finish once again.

Best Tom Hoge odds: 111.00

Ante-Post Selections

One good bit of advice would be to wait and see who is in the top 4 at the end of round 1 and take your pick from that much reduced list. Of the last ten winners, seven had finished in the top four on round 1, but that luxury is not afforded to an ante post preview.

2023 US Masters Tip: 2 points Scotty Scheffler to win @ 8.50 with Boylesports (win only)

Scheffler is hard to get away from. His only serious negative is the historic record of defending champions. His form and course record are both very positive and I think he bucks the trend and can go back-to-back.

2023 US Masters Tip: 0.5 point e/w Sungjae Im to be first round leader @ 41.00 with Ladbrokes, Betfred, Betvictor

Ranked 6th for first round scoring and was leader at this stage last year. A relatively early tee time may not be ideal, but there is a risk that the weather may get a little worse for the later starters.

2023 US Masters Tip: 0.5 point e/w Justin Rose to be first round leader @ 46.00 with BET365

Rose has been first round leader here four times from seventeen starts and his recent good form offers some hope that he can go close again. He is one of the later starters (group 26 of 30) and they have tended to do better than the early starters, providing the leader/joint leader in 8 of the last 10 years.

2023 US Masters Tip: 1 point Jason Day to be top Australian player @ 2.80 with BET365

Day has enjoyed a return to form of late with five top 10 finishes from his last six events. Day has five top 20s (three top 10s) in his last nine visits to Augusta and he has the game to suit the course. This is a field of just five players, of which one is a 176.00 shot.

Cameron Smith, a LIV defector hasn’t been in great form and had been suffering with a wrist injury. Min Woo Lee is a threat, he has only one year’s experience of the course, but he did finish 14th. Adam Scott is a past winner but that was ten years ago.

2023 US Masters Tip: 1 point Tiger Woods not to make the cut @ 2.70 with Fitzdares

It would be rude not to have a Tiger Woods bet at Augusta and let’s face it, you are going to see a lot of him, playing well or not. His leg injuries mean that he can only play in a handful of events per year, if that. He finds walking hard work and especially hard on slopes/hills.

Augusta is not an easy walk and with the going expected to be soft to heavy, it will be a real physical challenge for him. He just about made the cut last year and the weather is against him this year. Thursday should be OK, but he is in one of the later groups on Friday and I would not be surprised to see that round not started or at least not completed due to rain delays. That means he has to play catch up at some point, maybe 27 or 36 holes in a day. That would be too much.

-JamesPunt