2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Preview – DS
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Preview
Sunday was almost another write off at the Dublin Racing Festival. We backed a couple of doubtful triers in the opener and then Charlie Stout made a bad mistake from which he couldn’t recover. Thankfully, Nibiru ran a cracker, landing our NB at odds of 40/1 (BOG). We are back in the UK this weekend and the Betfair Hurdle is the highlight. Check out Dave Stevos 2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday preview below.
1.30 Warwick – Warwick Castle Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Warwick is a sharp, flat track where a mix of speed and slick jumping is the order of the day. Will it suit the 6/4 fav Stolen Silver? He has shown his best form by far at Cheltenham, a very different test to this one. He’s off a career high mark of 154 today and he was beat off 150 last time out. So, while he may outclass these, he does have to concede a big chunk of weight.
With Galahad Quest a non-runner, unfortunately only four run. If I had to back one in here it would be Mackenberg. Donald McCain’s consistent son of Jukebox Jury races off 143 with Theo Gillard claiming 3lbs. That means he is 4lbs lower than when running well over an inadequate trip of 16f at Doncaster last time behind Malystic.
His previous start over 19f at the same track resulted in victory and he has won four of his last six. He has less questions to answer than Knight In Dubai and Messire Des Obeaux and if you are taking on the fav, he could be the one. However, just four run and odds of 5/1 are no good for the blog. No bet.
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
1.50 Newbury – Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
As open a handicap as you’ll see. Nine are due to go to post and Barbados Buck’s is the jolly at 7/2 for Nicholls and Cobden. He’s run okay on both starts this season, finishing 3rd here in November off 128 and then filling the same position off the same mark at Wincanton on Boxing Day, beaten around 6/7L in both races. The handicapper has not relented and he is off the same mark again today. His backers will be hoping that the drop down into class 3 company does the trick. However, he’s hard to fancy strongly on recent form.
Outsider
The outsider of the field, Sirobbie, is more than capable of winning this if on a going day. Now trained by Ian Williams, he ran really well at Ludlow last month, beat 0.75L off 118 (24f sft). His last win came off 117 but he has won off 120 and 124 in the past. So, if he is on form, this rating is not beyond him. The win off 124 saw him beat West To The Bridge by 1.25L when in receipt of 5lbs. He gets 12lbs from him this afternoon.
Five of his six wins have come on good ground so conditions are ideal and while he admittedly pulled up last time, five of his shorter priced rivals didn’t pull up any trees on their last runs either. Flemenstide pulled up, Bridge North was beat 25L, Jay Bee Why has been beat a combined distance of 32L on his last two runs, Jatiluwih was 15L behind Sirobbie last time out and Annual Invictus was also pulled up at Wincanton. If Sirobbie can reproduce the form he showed at Ludlow, a place is not beyond the realms of possibilities at odds of 16/1.
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Sirobbie e/w @ 16/1
2.05 Warwick – Warwick Mares’ Hurdle (Listed)
Just the six runners here and Love Envoi is odds on to make it 3/3 this season. Harry Fry’s mare is a cracker of a horse and it seems she doesn’t know how to run a bad race. She has now won 7 of her 8 starts over hurdles and she is 8/9 overall under rules. She is a dual G2 winner and her sole defeat came behind Brandy Love in a G1 at Fairyhouse last term. At Sandown in a Listed heat last time out she hacked up (20f sft) and the only concern here is the ground. All her best form is on soft or heavy but she should have sufficient class to take care of these.
Theatre Glory has won at Listed level on good ground but she unseated on her seasonal comeback before running 3rd off 137 in a handicap at Kempton. That form won’t be good enough here but she could improve now returned to quicker conditions. On a line through Martello Sky, Mollys Ollys Wishes has over 10L to find with the fav and Skyace can’t be fancied on what she has produced in the last two seasons. Love Envoi should win and with just six runners, I’ll sit this race out. No bet.
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.25 Newbury – Denman Chase (Grade 2)
Another race that is hard to get excited about as a betting heat. However, it is an intriguing contest and I really hope Hitman bounces back to form. I really fancied him to make his mark at G1 level last time in the King George but he ran a bitterly disappointing race. Afterwards, it transpired that he burst a blood vessel so at least he had an excuse. As someone who has been involved with owning bursters in the past, it can be a tricky situation for trainers to solve and with that in mind, Hitman is definitely best watched here.
Eldorado Allen was my other main fancy for the King George and like all good e/w bets, he finished just outside the places in 4th. He is probably just below G1 level but in this lower class, he should be more than capable of making his presence felt. We backed him in this last year when he beat Royal Pagaille and I’d expect another bold bid from Joe Tizzard’s charge today.
First Time Cheekpieces
Fanion D’Estruval somewhat returned to form last time at Wetherby. His G1 3rd behind Fakir D’oudairies at Ascot would give him a big chance here but he’s been beaten in handicaps the last twice. The first time cheekpieces need to eke out improvement if he is to win.
Does He Know is very talented on his day and he was a G2 winner as a Novice last year (and also as a hurdler). A wind op in the off season has obviously paid off given his Cheltenham win last time out and he is one to keep a close eye on.
Sam Brown disappointed last time out and his connections also reach for the cheekpieces. His Wetherby 3rd behind Bravemansgame was a superb effort and a repeat of that would give the 11yo every chance. However, I think he might prefer slower ground than he’ll get at Newbury today.
Course Specialist
Kalashnikov and Zanza complete the field and the former is hard to fancy on recent form. Zanza, on the other hand, may have heaps to find on the figures with a rating of 143 but his Newbury form is very eye-catching. He’s had five starts here, returning form figures of 11611 and the 6th came in the Betfair Hurdle three years ago when he was beat just 2L. It is fair to say that Philip Hobbs’ charge is a bit of a course specialist.
On paper, he probably has to improve a stone to figure but he did get to within 3.75L of Eldorado Allen (and 2.75L of Hitman) in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter a couple of years ago. He was in receipt of 3lbs from both those rivals and he gets 6lbs from Eldorado today. With three places on offer from a couple of firms, Zanza is the e/w selection at around 18/1.
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Zanza e/w @ 18/1 (3 Places) NB
2.40 Warwick – Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Four runners and it is all about one horse. Jonbon has his third run of the season and his final prep before the Arkle in March. Nicky Henderson’s charge has beaten every horse he has faced so far, apart from Constitution Hill. Now a G1 winner over both hurdles and fences, he has to give 5lbs to his three rivals but that shouldn’t be an issue.
He is rated 159, 13lbs higher than Haddex Des Obeaux, 18lbs higher than Bass Rock and 23lbs higher than Calico. The former is probably the biggest danger on paper and that is reflected in his odds of 5/1. Even an 80% fit Jonbon should have too much up his sleeve for these rivals and I’m not going to take him on in a race like this. No bet.
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: No bet
3.00 Newbury – Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2)
Greaneteen’s chasing form figures going right handed read 11121412112. Going left handed they read 14345 with the 3rd coming in this race in 2021 when he was beat 12L. With that in mind, there is not a chance I’d be lumping on at 4/9, even if he is miles clear on the figures. On his last left handed start he was beat 74L at Leopardstown, so favourite backers should proceed with caution. I don’t lay horses but if I did, he’d be a candidate.
Funambule Sivola has 15lbs to find on the figures. However, he needs to leave his three runs this season well behind. He has been beat 23L, 36L and 21L after having wind surgery in the off season but clearly, that hasn’t worked. His last win came in this race a year ago and Venetia Williams will be hoping that the return to this track sparks a revival. There’s no way you could back him at just 5/1 though.
Back On Song
Elixir Du Nutz landed a 20f handicap in fine style last time at Wincanton. The one time G2 winner over hurdles looks like he is back on song and that last win was arguably a career best. He’ll go forward and he might take Greaneteen on for the lead. If they go too quick, it might set up for Malystic.
He landed a lovely pot at Doncaster two weeks ago, his second win on the spin. I had high hopes for this horse over fences after his good effort behind Protektorat in October 2020 but until this season, he hadn’t reached the heights I expected. Danny McMenamin is 2/2 on him now and unsurprisingly, Niven has retained his services. He is best going left handed, a strongly run race should suit and I think his odds of 9/1 are big enough to warrant an e/w interest.
2023 Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Malystic e/w @ 9/1
3.35 Newbury – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
The best betting race of the day by a country mile. Last year we found Glory And Fortune and he is back to defend his crown. He is currently chalked up at 18/1 and that is an insult. I read during the week that Paul Nicholls said there is no Champion Hurdler in the field, well this lad wasn’t far off nicking a place in last year’s renewal.
He is only 5lbs higher than last season and it looks like he has been trained for this race. At Ffos Las in October he ran a cracker off 153 on his last handicap hurdle start and he is now 5lbs lower. His last two runs in Novice Chases were likely designed to just keep him ticking over and I’d expect Stan Shepperd to revert to much more patient tactics today. Glory And Fortune should definitely be trying and at odds of 18/1, he is the headline pick.
Overpriced
Another overpriced horse here is Onemorefortheroad. Neil King trains this 8yo and Jack Quinlan will ride. He comes into this race on the back of an 85 day absence but that isn’t a worry. His record after breaks of 80 days or more read 3311144. He goes well fresh and he returned from an almost identical absence with a cracking run in the Imperial Cup off 137 at Sandown last season.
King’s charge then followed that up with another fine effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle off 136. He was only beat 1.75L that day and he is now 3lbs lower after a couple of below par efforts in October/November. My only worry with this horse is whether he is going to be doing his best. Given how well he ran in the Imperial Cup last season, I am concerned that his trainer may be targeting that race again and if he is, then this will be used as a sharpener for Onemorefortheroad.
However, there is also a chance that this contest has been earmarked as his main target. His last start at Newbury was the last time he won a race, a Listed handicap hurdle off 133 back in November 2021. He races off the same rating today and he gets his preferred good ground too so at the prices, he is also worth a small e/w investment at 33/1.
