2023 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips
Dave has already posted tips for Kempton and Chepstow today, see them here. His 2023 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tips are below.
1.10 – Paddy Power Chase (Grade 1)
An absolute joke of a Grade 1. Five runners, four trained by Willie Mullins and three owned by JP. Captain Guinness, second in this last year, won well on heavy last time. The majority of his best form is on better ground though so it might depend how much the rain has got into the track.
The second fav Dinoblue has also produced her best form on half decent ground but she did win her maiden hurdle on heavy. I won’t waste any more time on this sham of a contest. No bet.
2023 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tip: No bet
1.45 – Future Champions Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
I really fancied The Big Doyen in this race before the weather changed. I love taking on horses stepping up from maiden company in these types of races and Peter Fahey’s charge gives them a pretty high standard to aim at. He’s already rated 135 over hurdles and he has the best form in the race.
The 16f trip rates as a negative as his best form is over further but maybe this will turn into enough of a stamina test on the rain sodden ground. I do think this fella wants yielding at worst but he did run well on heavy at Limerick behind High Class hero in Listed company. I was going to put him up at 25/1 but those odds have long gone. He’s just a shade too short for me now in these testing conditions but I’d love to see him run a big race for the Money For Jam lads.
Dual Purpose
One that looks far too big is Smooth Tom. Andy Slattery’s charge is 2/2 over hurdles and he is also a very useful horse on the flat. He’s been placed off 92 in that sphere and he won here on heavy ground off 83 on the level back in May (10f sft/hvy).
The form of his Listowel (16f yld/sft) win hasn’t worked out but he could only beat what was in front of him. He stepped up from that on his next start in a Naas novice last month (16f sft), beating Mayor’s Walk by 3L. She was running big in a Listed race next time before a bad mistake two from home. The fifth was also placed in a Listed race next time out so the form looks pretty decent.
Keith Donoghue takes over in the plate and while he is 0/4 for Slattery, he still looks a good booking. Smooth Tom has run well on two of his three previous visits to this track, he should handle the conditions and I can see him outrunning his odds of 50/1.
2023 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tip: Smooth Tom e/w @ 50/1
2.20 – Handicap Hurdle (4yo+)
The interesting one here now that the ground has turned testing is The Model Kingdom. Noel Meade’s daughter of Aizavoski ran no race last time at Fairyhouse but sometimes mares have a propensity to throw in an occasional stinker. Previously, at Down Royal, she ran a super race in 2nd behind Magic Tricks (16f sft) and she is only 3lbs higher here.
This mare has done most of her winning on better ground than this but she has run well plenty of times on soft and arguably one of her finest efforts came on heavy. That was at Punchestown back in January when she finished 6L behind the now 160 rated Impaire Et Passe in a G2 Novice. The 140 rated Shecouldbeanything was 8L back in third so on that form, 130 looks very workable.
Micheal O’Sullivan gets the leg up on this mare for the first time today. He is 2/3 when riding for Meade and hopefully he’ll have a confidence boosting winner earlier on this card with Marine Nationale. At odds of 22/1, The Model Kingdom is the e/w selection.
2023 Wednesday Leopardstown Xmas Meeting Tip: The Model Kingdom e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NAP
3.00 – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Listed)
We have already backed Enjoy D’Allen at 40s for this valuable handicap chase (reasoning here). Now that the rain has come, it should enhance his chance. He has form figures of 2121 on ground with heavy in the description, including a 2L second at Navan off the same mark as today’s. Sean Flanagan is a decent booking and I am happy to stick with him as my sole selection. Fingers crossed he is in the mood.
