2023 Wednesday World Grand-Prix Darts Preview – JP
2023 Wednesday World Grand-Prix Match Previews
Before we get into James Punt’s 2023 Wednesday World Grand-Prix match previews and tips we will look back at some of the first round action.
First Round
We lost two of our four ante post bets in the first round which is not bad given the brutal format that is the first round.
Dave Chisnall’s wait for that first major goes on. He was fairly beaten by a confident Luke Woodhouse, while Jonny Clayton just wasn’t good enough against Ross Smith.
We go on with main selection Gary Anderson, and Stepehen Bunting, who both play tonight. The second and third round matches are best of five legs, a longer format which should reduce the chances of surprise results.
Gary Anderson vs. Andrew Gilding
Gary Anderson had to work very hard to get past Jose de Sousa in the first round. The Special One put in a very good performance and both players averaged over 95 in a double in format (that’s 103 in real darts apparently).
It was the highest quality match of the first round by some way and Anderson’s average was bettered only by Michael Smith, MVG and Luke Woodhouse in all the first round matches.
Andrew Gilding added to Rob Cross’ terrible Grand Prix record by beating him 2-1. It was the lowest quality match of all the first round matches with both players averaging just 74. Needless to say that Andrew Gilding will have to play a lot better to avoid a thrashing tonight.
Gary Anderson has won nine of his last ten matches and hit seven ton plus averages. He is doing more than just getting there.
H2H Stats
Their H2H record is 6-1. Gilding did win their only match in 2023 6-4. That was a Euro Tour qualifier and I wonder if Gary was fully invested in wanting to win. He did qualify for one but lost the first round and went home, confirming his loathing for travelling.
Their first three matches were all 6-5 wins for Anderson but the more recent matches have seen more comfortable wins. Their only TV match was a 4-0 win for Anderson in the 2017 World Championship. Anderson has played nine last 16 matches in the Grand Prix and won six.
Andrew Gilding has won just five of his last ten matches. Only three saw averages over 95 and three saw him win over moderate opposition in a deciding set. Very unconvincing form. Gilding has only played one Grand Prix second round and he lost that 1-3 to Phil Taylor.
Flying Scotsman Fav
Anderson is the 1.27 favourite and Gilding 4.33. It is hard to make a case for anything but a win for Anderson. He is an experienced operator, he won’t take Gilding for granted and won’t have one eye on the quarter final.
It is hard to find much in the way of value here. Everyone expects an Anderson win and he is priced accordingly. The handicap betting has him @ 1.58 -1.5 sets which is a safe looking bet but I’ll be more ambitious (greedy) and risk a 3-0 bet. Anderson’s last two second round wins have both been 3-0, one vs. Noppert, the other Jeffery de Zwaan.
2023 Wednesday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point Anderson to win 3-0 @ 3.33 with Unibet
Stephen Bunting vs. Martin Schindler
Stephen Bunting was not at his best when beating Nathan Aspinall but the win was most welcome. He has won eight of his last ten matches and the two defeats were at the hands of the in-form Gary Anderson.
Martin Schindler won a low quality affair vs. Raymond van Barneveld with a 2-1 win. He didn’t play much differently to Bunting in his first round match, but he did have the easier opposition.
Schindler has won six of his last ten matches but not with a great deal of consistency. There have been two ton plus averages but also seven sub 92s.
Their H2H record is 5-4 to Schindler but in the last meeting, just a month ago, it was Bunting who was the 6-1 winner. That ended a run of four straight wins for the German so despite that recent heavy loss, Schindler will not be intimidated by facing Bunting.
Bullet In Better Form
Bunting is playing the better darts right now. He has hit a rich vein of form of consistently heavy scoring. For that he starts the 1.67 favourite, with Schindler 2.30.
Bunting has played in five second round Grand Prix matches and won just two, but he did take MVG to a decider last year. Schindler is treading new ground, never having made the second round.
It is hard to see either player bossing this match to a 3-0 win, but Bunting’s recent form has been good enough to think that he should be the winner here.
2023 Wednesday World Grand-Prix Tip: 1 point Stephen Bunting to win @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes
Gerwyn Price vs. Krzysztof Ratajski
These two have met fourteen times. Price has won ten in total and eight of their last ten. On TV it is 3-1 to Price, and he has won their last three.
Of those last three TV wins, Price has won 10-3, 5-0 and 5-10. Price is a proven big stage beast, Ratajski much more comfortable on the floor.
Gerwyn Price is in very good form, winning eight of his last ten and Ratajski six of his last ten. Both have played second round Grand Prix matches. Price has won four from five and his last four in a row, Ratajski won one from two.
Iceman A Warm Fav
Price is the 1.24 favourite and Ratajski 4.33. Much like the first match of the evening, it is hard to make a case for anything other than a win for the favourite and probably a comfortable one. Price has had Ratajski’s number on the big stage and he likes to dominate.
A 3-0 scoreline to Price is a 2.88 shot but we have only seen one 3-0 win at this stage of the GP in the last two years. 2020 did see four and 2018 saw five, so in the longer run it evens out but over the last five years, a 3-2 score line has been the most common, followed by 3-1.
Ratajski is no mug and good enough to maybe get a set and as such, I’ll be more conservative here and back Price on the handicap but to bigger stakes.
2023 Wednesday World Grand-Prix Tip: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win -1.5 sets @ 1.67 with Betfair
Michael Smith vs. Brendan Dolan
Brendan Dolan opened the tournament with a surprise win over Dirk van Duijvenbode. He was able to just hang in and let Dirk beat himself. That looks to be as far as he will go this year.
Dolan has played in four second round matches and won two, but those were way back in 2011 and 2012. In those four matches, he always won at least one set and all ended in four sets.
His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches and while he’ll rarely be seen smashing in big averages, his strength is to hang in and grind out a result, to win legs and be awkward.
Fast Start For Smith
Michael Smith hit the ground running, beating Callan Rydz 2-0. Rydz was a spectator and won just one leg. Smith averaged 96.1, the highest average across the sixteen first round matches.
Consistency is his problem at the moment. Smith has won seven of his last ten matches and there has been a little bit of everything in that ten, from brilliant to poor.
His record in the Grand Prix is poor, only making the second round twice in ten attempts and losing on both occasions.
Interesting H2H
Their H2H record makes for very interesting reading. Michael Smith will have a great record of course….No. Dolan is 8-5. Not only that, but Dolan has won their last three matches, including a 6-2 win in February this year.
They have met four times on TV and those resulted in three wins for Smith, but of those, two were way back in 2014 and his most recent TV win over Dolan was a 6-4 win in the 2019 Players Championship finals.
Smith is the 1.29 favourite, Dolan 4.00. It would be a brave punter who was backing Smith at those odds, given their H2H record, Smith’s inconsistency and his tournament record.
Dolan To Nick a Set?
I expect Dolan to get something on the scoreboard, and traditionally he gets at least a set in defeat. But how much?
I worry that Smith can still have double trouble, there is scar tissue there, but that is balanced by the fact that he is now a World Champion. He should be ready to move on, beat Dolan and contend for the title, but there are two chances to get stuck on the outer ring and that is why this has not been a good tournament for him.
It strikes me that this is not a great betting event, but I’ll have a small stake on Smith to win 3-1. That needs him to play well, which is not a given, but he is the better player and should perform better than Dolan.
