2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Preview & Tips
We landed a lovely winner at the Breeders’ Cup on Friday night. Our 12/1 e/w NAP Hard To Justify obliged and we also nicked some place money with My Boy Prince in the finale. Shards was denied a clear run and he is the horse I’ll be watching closely in the coming months. Our Saturday Santa Anita tips are here, you can check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday selections below.
1.15 Wetherby – bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 3)
From the sun and sand at Santa Anita, to the rain and muck and class 3 handicaps at Wetherby and Ascot. Quite the contrast. The start of the NH season is always pretty treacherous for punting. Lots of horses lack a recent run but that isn’t the case with our selection for this class 3 contest.
The Paddy Pie, a course and distance winner on Boxing Day last year, should be fit after a run at Warwick (20f gd) a month ago. Admittedly, it wasn’t his best effort there but the 10yo did shape well to a point and that outing should have blown away any cobwebs.
The handicapper generously dropped him 3lbs for that effort. That means he races off 107 today, 7lbs lower than he was for his C&D victory. This dual soft ground winner won’t mind the ground, Ross Chapman knows him well and Sue Smith’s last two runners finished third. At odds of 14/1, The Paddy Pie is the e/w selection.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: The Paddy Pie e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
1.30 Ascot – Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The only one that makes any appeal at double figure odds is Jipcot for Ben Pauling. Kielan Woods rides this 4yo son of Choeur Du Nord, a formerly useful French performer. He didn’t show a whole lot on his first two UK starts last season but his return at Carlisle (20f gd) last month, his first run after a wind op in the summer, was a bit more promising.
Held up just behind the leaders, Jipcot was a bit big over the first fence. However, I was pretty impressed by his jumping after that first obstacle and he travelled well for a long way before blowing up in the straight.
Both of this horse’s French wins came on very soft ground. That suggests that today’s conditions should be right up his alley and it’ll be the first chance he has had on soft ground in the UK since his debut on these shores at Cheltenham. Ben Pauling’s horses are in pretty decent fettle and this slightly shorter trip should suit. At odds of 11/1, Jipcot is the e/w selection.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Jipcot e/w @ 11/1 NAP
1.50 Wetherby – bet365 Mares’ Hurdle (Listed)
Salsada ran a blinder on her seasonal reappearance last year in a Doncaster G2. She chased home former Champion Hurdle heroine Epatante and she was only 6L behind her. However, that was on good ground, as is all her best form, so today’s conditions are off putting.
This looks like it’ll be between the top three in the market and with just seven runners, we’ll steer clear. No bet.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: No bet
2.05 Ascot – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Premier)
A £100k race with nine runners, all of whom lack a recent run. Boothill is the 4/1 fav for Fry and Burke. His 5.5L second to Tommy’s Oscar at Donny (16.5f gd) conceding 5lbs, is rock solid form and he didn’t stay 20f on his final run of last season. His mark of 149 could be a gift now he returns to handicaps and he handles soft ground. If fit, he’s the one to beat.
One at a big price with a decent record when fresh is The Last Day. He fell when booked for second on his seasonal reappearance in 2018. In 2019, he landed an Aintree chase (16f sft) on his comeback off 131 then he subsequently ran fourth in a handicap over this C&D. His 2020 return was a poor effort and last year he had the race at his mercy when falling at the last at Haydock after a 353 day absence.
When last sighted, this horse ran a big race in a handicap at the Grand National meeting. The son of Oscar finished third behind Dancing On My Own and we all saw what he did at Cheltenham last weekend. The Last Day is only 2lbs higher than when beating that same horse at Aintree in 2022, his last win, so at 28/1 he is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: The Last Day e/w @ 28/1
2.25 Wetherby – Bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2)
Just six runners so not a betting race for me today. Friend of the blog, the warrior Dashel Drasher makes his return and as ever, I’ll be cheering him on. Unfortunately, he is just 9/4 so he isn’t a bet today. No bet.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: No bet
3.00 Wetherby – Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
What a septic turnout for this 100k race. Four runners. Bravemansgame is odds on and Gentlemansgame has been well backed. Ahoy Senor could be the value at 5/1 and it’ll be interesting to see how Midnight River gets on in this company. This is a win only race so we’ll also be giving it a miss. No bet.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: No bet
3.15 Ascot – handicap hurdle (Class 3)
Faivoir has finished first and second in two previous visits to Ascot on good and good to soft ground. It will be more testing today but he is a multiple soft and heavy ground winner so conditions should hold no fears for the son of Coastal Path.
Dan Skelton’s charge races off a mark of 139 today, 5lbs higher than when winning the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. However, he has won off 144 over fences so he should be capable of being competitive off that rating.
On his seasonal return at Ffos Las he only finished sixth, beat 19L behind Nemean Lion. He was always out the back and that flat track probably didn’t play to his strengths. This horse is best when held up off a strong pace on a stiff track and he should get a good gallop to aim at here. With Fergus Gillard taking off 3lbs he is effectively just 2lbs higher than he was at Cheltenham last season, hopefully another good Ascot run is on the cards at odds of 22/1.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Faivoir e/w @ 22/1 (4 places) NB
3.30 Wetherby – Bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
In the hope that he is fit for his comeback, Rafferty’s Return is the only one at double figure odds that makes any appeal. A C&D winner of a novice hurdle back in January 2022 on soft, his last win also came here, over 21.5f in a handicap hurdle off 125 in December of last year.
His seasonal comeback at this track last year was nothing to write home about. However, the ground was good and he should be more at home on this softer surface. Interestingly, he won a soft ground Newcastle novice hurdle on his return to action in January 2022 after a 286 day break so he has previous of running well fresh and the conditions today should be pretty much the same.
Rebecca Menzies is in pretty decent form right now, firing in four winners from her last 23 runners. Ross Chapman has been aboard two of those and he is 7/37 with 13 top 4 finishes when riding for John Wade. As is often the case at this stage of the season, fitness must be taken on trust, but Rafferty’s Return ticks the course form and ground boxes so at 10/1, he is the e/w selection.
2023 Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Rafferty’s Return e/w @ 10/1
3.45 Ascot – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)
Larry scored in this race two years ago. Last year, he won over C&D on his seasonal reappearance. He is 3lbs higher today than he was for both of those wins and even though Jamie Moore has chosen to ride him, I’m going to back his stablemate Zhiguli instead.
By Flemensfirth, this 8yo will be ridden by David Noonan. He is 0/19 for the stable but he has finished 2nd on four occasions and another one of those would do us rightly today. Like Larry, this horse has won on his seasonal bow before, over 23f at Lingfield on bottomless ground in October 2021. That win came off 123, his last win was off 126 and he races off 128 today.
The softer the ground, the better for this fella. He loves it when the mud is flying and he proved at Sandown last year that he could handle a right handed, testing track. He did pull up on his last visit to Ascot but the ground was probably too lively for him. Today’s conditions will suit much better, he has a feather weight of just 10st 2lbs and at odds of 16/1, Zhiguli is the e/w pick.
