2023 World Grand Prix Betting Preview

The 2023 World Grand Prix is the only ‘double in, double out’ format in professional darts. It gives the tournament a novel twist, but we still talking about throwing darts.

The format perhaps plays a bigger part in the early rounds and especially the first, which is a best of three sets.

It is a short format in any case and a game can get away from a player quite quickly, but if they get stuck on a double at the start of the leg, then panic can set in very early. In the later stages of the tournament, there is a bit more time to reset and recover.

Double Trouble

Obviously, players who are proficient and comfortable on the outer ring are more attractive propositions but any player can get stuck on a double at any time.

It is how they deal with it which makes the difference. Having a plan of attack. What to do when you are missing your preferred double, having a plan B. Other than that, it’s another darts tournament.

In terms of doubles hit over the last 12 months in TV or Streamed events, a brief look at the top hitters on the popular doubles in the last 12 months may of some interest.

2023 World Grand Prix: Double 20 Hit Percentage

Jonny Clayton 45%

Gary Anderson 44.5%

Andrew Gilding 44.1%

Gerwyn Price 44%

Joe Cullen 43.2%

Double 18%

Andrew Gilding 50%

Gary Anderson 48%

Brendan Dolan 47.6%

Michael Smith 46.5%

Raymond van Barneveld 46.5%

Double 16%

Brendan Dolan 54.1%

Jonny Clayton 46.1%

Gabriel Clemens 46%

Gary Anderson 44.6%

Michael van Gerwen 43.9%

Only Gary Anderson features in the top five in all three. Interesting.

The 2023 World Grand Prix Seeds

1 Michael Smith

Perhaps the only thing we need to know here is that Michael Smith has never got beyond the second round in this and has only won two first round matches in ten appearances.

Given that his form has looked below par since switching darts manufacturer he looks to be one to avoid, and indeed oppose with Callan Rydz in the first round. He has said that he is still too inconsistent, but that his game is coming.

Will it come it time for this? His recent form is good with seven wins from ten matches.

2 Michael van Gerwen

A six time winner and the defending champion. His doubling has looked fragile under pressure at times but this is a format with which he is comfortable. He is all about winning majors and is an obvious contender. Good recent form with seven wins from his last ten.

3 Peter Wright

Reached the semi-final last year and was runner up in 2018. He has also suffered six first round defeats. Some signs of a return to form but I’d expect a player who is full of confidence to do well in this particular format, and Wright hasn’t quite got there yet. He has lost five of his last ten matches.

4 Gerwyn Price

The 2020 champion, 2021 runner up and 2022 semi-finalist. Price is a serious contender and is one of the very best double 20 hitters in the game.

Price hasn’t won a major title since the 2021 Grand Slam which puts his odds of 5.50 in a poor light and is just enough for me to leave him out of the selections. His recent form, eight wins from his last eight matches and two recent Players Championships.

5 Nathan Aspinall

Last year’s runner up and a quarter finalist in 2019, so he can handle the format. In good form and high in confidence. Now a two time major winner and a contender, but his recent form of five defeats from his last ten is not ideal.

6 Luke Humphries

Only just missed out on another Euro title in Budapest a week ago. Despite suffering a back spasm he was playing incredible darts, averaging over a ton in all five of his matches.

He has only played in two Grand Prix and only won one match. He has made the semi-final of six of his last six ranking majors and while he may be putting himself under a bit too much pressure in the big TV event, he is too good not to win one soon.

Luke hasn’t shown much in his first two Grand Prix which is a worry. His 2023 win rate is a field leading 74% and he has won seven of his last ten matches.

7 Jonny Clayton

Won this in 2021 when the world was at his feet. His record outside of that win is poor win just two other matches won.

His confidence was off the charts in 2021 which hasn’t been the case since, but he was runner up in the Matchplay in the summer and he looks like he is back in top form since the passing of his father. His record in non-ranking majors is bafflingly brilliant but surely, he can bring that to the ranking ones?

Of his last ten TV singles events, he has reached one final, five semi-finals and two quarter finals. He is simmering nicely. Look at the stats of doubles hit for each segment, and Clayton’s name is never far from the top. His recent form sees eight wins from his last ten.

8 Rob Cross

Another player who just hasn’t got on with this event. He has played six times and only reached the second round twice. It is his weakest major by a mile. He has lost four of his last five matches.

2023 World Grand Prix: Unseeded Players

Danny Noppert

Warmed up for this by winning PC22 on Wednesday. That was his second title in 2023 and ended a horrible trend of losing quarter finals. He is a major winner and ranked 12th for checkout %, so he is comfortable on the doubles.

Noppert has played in five previous Grand Prix, only lost one first round match and reached the semi-final in 2022. He is slowly improving in majors and a decent run is possible. Won eight of his last eight matches.

Dirk van Duijvenbode

Dirk is a player who has become expensive to follow. His scoring power puts him in the frame for so many events, but he keeps on coming up dry. He has only made the final of two TV majors and lost both, including this one in 2020. He has made one other semi-final and seven quarter finals.

This season he has lost two Euro Tour finals and looks increasingly frustrated. He has the game, but he is not making the most of it. He has won six of his last ten matches.

Joe Cullen

Winner of the 2022 Masters and runner up in the 2022 Premier League, but outside of that, Cullen has not enjoyed a lot of success in the big ones. He has lost three semi-finals and nine quarter finals. That is from a huge 70 TV majors played.

His Grand Prix record is one quarter final in 2020, two second round exits and four first round defeats. His recent form is not great, losing six of his last ten.

Dave Chisnall

You’ll hear a lot of people saying that this is going to be Chisnall’s year to win a major, and that this is the most likely tournament in which to do it. There are grounds to support the argument.

Chisnall has won three Euro Tour titles in 2023 and tops that OOM. His Grand Prix record sees two losing finals, two losing semi-finals and two losing quarter finals from twelve starts. He has lost a total of four ranking major finals and two non-ranking. The big question is, can he finally get one over the line on TV?

He has played in 88 ranking majors and made four finals, not a great strike rate. Perhaps the success of Michael Smith finally getting his major duck out of the way in fine style last year will inspire him. His recent form is excellent, winning nine of his last ten.

Damon Heta

The Heat has only played in two Grand Prix and is yet to win a match. He has reached four major quarter finals from twenty starts and he is still a relative novice at the top level.

Heta has had a decent Euro Tour campaign, making four semi-finals but his seasonal average has dropped by over 3.5 points. He could have a run, but going all the way to the final? Unlikely. He recent form has been better, winning seven of his last ten.

Dimitri van den Bergh

A quarter finalist here last year and a better stage player than on the floor. His 2023 form has not been great but he has made two major semi-finals and he is a player that can’t be easily dismissed. That said, it is hard to get too excited about his prospects. His draw is not the best either. He has lost five of his last ten.

Ryan Searle

A quarter finalist in 2021, Searle hasn’t really played to his abilities in the majors. He was runner up in the 2021 Players Championship finals and was a quarter finalist in the Matchplay this summer.

He has won four Players Championship events, including one this year, but his Euro Tour woes have continued and while Van den Bergh raises his game on the stage, Searle’s is diminished. He has lost five of his last ten matches.

James Wade

Playing in his nineteenth consecutive Grand Prix. In that time he has won it twice (2007 and 2010) and been runner up once (2014). Since that runners up spot, Wade has played in eight Grand Prix and lost six first round matches and two second round matches.

He made three TV semi-finals in 2022 and a quarter final, but he has regressed in 2023. His seasonal average is up a little, his win rate very much in line with his last five years, he is ranked second for checkout %, his scoring is very impressive at times, but he just doesn’t look like a contender.

His form has picked up a little in the last couple of months, reaching a Euro Tour semi-final and a Players Championship semi-final. If he can beat Ratajski in the first round, he faces the winner of Price vs. Noppert, and that looks a tough draw. His recent form is good, with seven wins from ten.

Pro Tour OOM Qualifiers

Josh Rock

Making his Grand Prix debut and comes here not in the best of form. He hasn’t made any great impression in the majors, yet, and he is hard to fancy when not winning a lot of matches, just four of his last ten.

Krzysztof Ratajski

Made the quarter final in 2021 (so he is defending that prizemoney). That was the year he threatened to break through in the majors, reaching three quarter finals and a semi-final. Since then he has been out early in the big ones, and this season has been no different.

He has picked up two titles in 2023, the German Darts Open earlier this month and PC9 in April, so he is having a good season. A tough draw suggests a second round exit is most likely. He has won six of his last ten matches.

Martin Schindler

Made his debut last year but mad a first round exit. He was a career best quarter finalist at the UK Open, but it would be a surprise to see him contend for a major title before he has won a senior PDC title of any sort. His recent form sees five wins from his last ten.

Stephen Bunting

A two time semi-finalist and the last was in 2021, so he is under pressure to defend that. He comes here in great form and must be feeling confident of a good run.

Bunting was runner up in the recent German Darts Open and he is no stranger to going deep in majors, including the quarter finals at Ally Pally at the start of the season. He has reached seven ranked major quarter finals and four semi-finals.

He has been impressing me lately and while not a likely winner, a deep run is very possible. He recently increased the weight of his darts from a feather weight 12 grams to a relatively hefty 16 grams. It seems to be working and he has won six of his last ten matches and his scoring has been impressively heavy. Lively outsider.

Ross Smith

Won both his first round matches at the Grand Prix. His major record is fairly ordinary, apart from winning the European Championship last year.

He has had a frustrating season, unable to kick on after that big win. Smudger is a solid player, decent on the doubles and a big 180 hitter. A dangerous opponent for Jonny Clayton in the first round. He has lost five of his last ten.

Andrew Gilding

Like Ross Smith, Gilding’s record in majors is very ordinary, until he went and won this year’s UK Open. Goldfinger lost his debut match here last year, but he plays with a bit more belief these days.

Meets Rob Cross in the first round and given Cross’ poor tournament record, do not rule him out of making some progress. Has lost five of his last ten matches.

Jose de Sousa

Only won one match in his three previous Grand Prix. He isn’t the player he was back in 2020-2021 but remains a dangerous opponent, especially if he gets his range on treble 20. He has drawn Gary Anderson in the first round and that might be as far as The Special One goes this week. Has won six of his last ten matches.

Gary Anderson

One of the few majors Anderson has never won. Is it too late now? His last major final was in the 2021 World Championship, but do not write him off this week.

He hit top form in the Players Championship events last week and looked very dangerous. When he wants it, when he puts the work in, Anderson remains one of the elite players.

He is very strong on double 20 and when he gets his range on that, combined with his heavy scoring, he is very much a contender. Comes into this having won nine of his last ten and PC24 on Friday.

Mike De Decker

A debutant but one who comes here in great form. De Decker is one of the big 180 hitters and while he has been around for a few years now, he is only now looking like realising his potential. He isn’t the finished article, but he isn’t a player anyone will relish playing at the moment. Won five of his last ten but has been hitting some big averages.

Daryl Gurney

The 2017 Grand Prix Champion, Daryl Gurney also reached the semi-final in 2018 and the quarter final in 2016. However, he has only won a single match in the last four years.

He has slipped down the rankings and is now outside the top 25. There are signs of a return to form in 2023 but progress has been slow. He has blown a bit hot and cold, struggling for consistency, but the target is a return to the top 24 by the end of the year. A few wins here would help.

He won his title by nailing the double 16 as his in shot and then attacked to treble 19, rather than moving around the board.

This year, he has decided that his favoured double is now double 18. It’s a strange choice. Go inside and you’re on nines, right across the other side of the board. There are fifteen players in this event who are better on the double 18.

A first round draw against Luke Humphries is not what the doctor ordered. Superchin is in good form, winning seven of his last ten.

Gabriel Clemens

One match won from his previous three Grand Prix appearances is not inspiring. He reached the semi-final of the World Championship at the start of the season, but outside of that, he has not looked to be a great stage player, indeed he has yet to win a PDC title. His recent form is not good, losing six of his last ten matches.

Brendan Dolan

Making his fourteenth appearance in the Grand Prix. He was a finalist in 2011 and was the first man to hit a nine darter in the ‘double in’ format.

The bad news is that he has lost nine first round matches and only won one in his last seven. His recent form is good, winning seven of his last ten matches.

Raymond van Barneveld

Barney is a two time runner up but the last time was back in 2009. His best days are well behind him and his last Grand Prix appearance was in 2018. On the credit side, he has only ever lost two first round matches from thirteen played. He has won six of his last ten matches.

Chris Dobey

A very respectable record for Dobey who has played in three previous Grand Prix and reached a semi-final and a quarter-final. He comes here in fine form, winning eight of his last ten matches.

I like his first round draw vs. Dimitri van den Bergh, but if he meets MVG in the second round? Well, at least his recent record vs. Mighty Mike has vastly improved. After eleven straight defeats he is 4-4 from their last eight. Interesting. His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten.

Callan Rydz

Lost both of his first round matches in the Grand Prix. This year he plays Michael Smith in the first round and he is 0-4 vs. Bully Boy. Rydz’ form is a bit inconsistent, 4-6 in his last ten, but when he is good, he is very good.

It is hard to see a deep run, but he has reached three major quarter finals and Smith has a poor first round record here himself.

Luke Woodhouse

The last man to qualify for the 2023 World Grand Prix and making his tournament debut. He has to be given credit for being able to lift his game when he needed to, under pressure in the Hungarian Darts Trophy.

His reward is to play the in-form Dave Chisnall in the first round. Woodhouse will not be an easy opponent for Chizzy as he has won six of his last ten. However, he lacks consistency and he will need his best game to upset the odds. He has received two drubbings from Chisnall in 2023.

The Draw

Q1

Gary Anderson has a nice draw here, he is in top form, has great doubling stats and a point to prove. He was around 41.00 earlier this week and 29.00 yesterday, but his excellent run of form at the three Players Championship events, culminating with him winning PC24 means he is now a best priced 23.00. That’s still enough value for me.

Q2

Gerwyn Price choose not to play in the Players Championship events earlier in the week but he comes here in great form, winning PC21 three weeks ago and reaching the semi-final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy.

A great double 20 hitter and multiple major champion. His draw sees him playing the in-form Danny Noppert in the first round, and that is a tough prospect, but he has won his last seven matches in a row vs. Noppert, including two 6-1’s. 

Stephen Bunting is another form player in the quarter but he has lost seven of his last eight vs. the Welshman.

Q3

There are two fancies in this quarter. Six time winner and defending champion, Michael van Gerwen, and the 2021 winner, Jonny Clayton.

The Ferret has a tricky first round match vs. Ross smith, but he has a good record against him, albeit with some close matches. His form is back to his best now that he has returned to full time play/practice after the death of his father.

That came just a few days after he lost the final of the Matchplay and he had done well to reach the final while his father was very ill. The loss of a loved one can be a great motivator, and Jonny will want to win it for his dad. He is also one of those players who gives MVG a hard time on the board.

MVG To Go Well?

With Van Gerwen’s record, he has to be fancied to go well. He is in good form and will want to get a major under his belt in 2023. He is not the dominant force he once was and there are other players with a better claim to being the best player in the world right now, but he’s never far off it.

MVG is the 5.00 favourite which is a sporting price given his record. Jonny Clayton is a 21.00 shot and that makes plenty of appeal. He is looking good and he is a great doubler all over the board.

Q4

Luke Humphries is one of the players who is playing like a World Champion in waiting. His standard of play is at a very high level almost every time he steps up to the oche.

Not in his favour is that he hasn’t actually crossed the line in a big one…yet. The other thing against him is that he is in the same quarter as Dave Chisnall.

Chizzy is the Kryptonite to Humphries Superman. They have met five times in 2023. All of them in finals and Chisnall has won four. Chizzy has won five of their last six matches and is 10-5 overall.

Major Maiden

Chisnall has famously never won a major. He is the best player never to have won a major, inheriting that moniker after Michael Smith won the Grand Slam last year.

In his favour, is that he has become used to winning not just matches in 2023, but titles. In the last 12 months or so, he has won the Gibraltar Darts Trophy 2022, PC25, three Euro titles in 2023 and finally got his first Players Championship title of the 2023 season last week, beating Humphries in the final of PC23.

Chizzy suffered his own bereavement late last year when his mum passed away and it has had a galvanising effect on his game. It must be said he came into this event last year on the back of a win and some great form, but got dumped out in the first round. You can want something too much.

2023 World Grand Prix: Ante Post Selections

It is twelve months since Michael van Gerwen picked up his sixth Grand Prix title. Since then he has won the 2022 Players Championship and the 2023 Premier League.

Michael Smith won the 2022 Grand Slam and the 2023 World Championship. Ross Smith won the 2022 European Championship, Chris Dobey won the Masters, Andrew Gilding the UK Open and Nathan Aspinall the World Matchplay.

Those are the nine big TV tournaments. Three favourites won, we had two big outsiders in Ross Smith and Andrew Gilding (and Dobey to a degree) and three reasonably not entirely unexpected winners (Smith twice and Aspinall).

More Contenders

It is not so long ago when previewing these events, you didn’t have to look too far down the list of favourites to find the winner. But now? The favourites have to be a decent price.

MVG might have won a third of the big TV events last year, but he no longer is going off at around evens for the majors. Taylor’s years of domination are like a distant memory. There are more names to consider and at bigger odds.

In this year’s lineup, we have eighteen winners of at least one of the big TV events. We have seven former World Champions and five former Grand Prix winners. We have many contenders, and of course we have winners in waiting, such as Luke Humphries.

There are plenty of names to consider, but I have picked three outright selections and one outsider to make the 2023 World Grand Prix semi-final.

Gary Anderson to win the 2023 World Grand Prix 1 point e/w @ 23.00 with Ladbrokes

Jonny Clayton to win the 2023 World Grand Prix 0.5 point e/w @ 21.00 generally available

Dave Chisnall to win the 2023 World Grand Prix 0.5 point e/w @ 21.00 with Ladbrokes

Stephen Bunting to win the 2nd Quarter 0.5 point @ 15.00 with Betfred, Hills, Skybet

We will have match by match betting throughout the week, so stayed tuned.

-JamesPunt