2023 World Matchplay Darts Betting Preview – JP
2023 World Matchplay Darts Betting Preview
The 2023 World Matchplay Darts will be the 30th renewal of an event widely regarded as second only to the World Championship in terms of prestige.
Thirty two players will take part, the top 16 in the PDC OOM, and the top 16 players from the Pro Tour OOM not already qualified from the top 16 list. In essence you get the top 16 best players joined by that year’s ‘form’ players who are not (yet) in the top 16 of the world rankings.
Looking at the last ten years, only one player from the Pro Tour OOM has made the final and that was Dimitri van den Bergh. He won the 2020 title, the year when the event was not played at its traditional home, the Winter Gardens, Blackpool. A co-incidence? Maybe not.
The Winter Gardens is regarded as unique in terms of the crowd. The fans are much more up close to the stage and it is famously hot. On and off stage.
Taylor Dominance
This was an event totally dominated by Phil Taylor in his pomp. He won it no less than 16 times, but since he last won it in 2017 there have been five different winners. Gary Anderson, Rob Cross, Dimitri van den Bergh, Peter Wright and Michael van Gerwen.
There have only been 11 different winners of the event and with Taylor retired, it has become a much more open tournament. However, Dimitri van den Bergh’s win excepted, the last ten years have only one player seeded higher than 4th going on to win the title. Ironically that was Phil Taylor who was ranked 8th when he last won the title in 2017.
If you had just blindly backed the top 4 seeds every year since 2013, you would have got eight winners and five runners up. All of the last ten runners up have been seeded in the top 8.
Recent history suggest that the winner will be a top seed, as will the runner up.
2023 World Matchplay Darts: The Seeds
1 Michael Smith
Bully Boy was the runner up in 2019, a semi-finalist in 2020 and quarter finalist in 2021 but has failed to get past the second round seven times.
It is fair to say that his majors’ form has been excellent since the start of 2022. He was runner up in three, won the Grand Slam and then the World Championship. The tag of best player never to win a major was getting to him, but once the first was landed, he feels like he can win the lot.
He has picked up a Players Championship title and the European Tour title since winning the World Championship. His recent form saw six wins from his last ten matches.
Smith switched his darts manufacturer a couple of weeks ago. I’m sure there was a good financial reason to do so, but from a performance point of view? So far, there is no noticeable difference.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 7.00
2 Peter Wright
This is why the rolling two year O.O.M. is flawed as a form guide. Peter Wright is not the second best player in the World. He was, but right now?
The current form based FDI rankings have Wright at 16th and that still looks generous. His win rate in 2023 is just 47%, his seasonal average is down to 93.7. It was over 97 when he won this title in 2021.
He did win the Czech Darts Masters back in May but since then he has hardly played, just five matches, lost four of them and failed to average above 88.5 in any.
Deciding to not play competitive darts as a way to find form seems a strange one, but at least his confidence can’t get any lower that way. Wright is a top 4 ranked player, but it is hard to see him lifting the trophy.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 23.00
3 Michael van Gerwen
Prepared for this by setting a new World Series final record, averaging 113 in an 8-3 win over Dimitri van den Bergh in the Polish Masters at the weekend. That was his first title since having major dental surgery which has left him struggling to speak and in considerable discomfort.
He was in great form across his three matches and despite his discomfort, he looked in great nick. MVG is a three time Matchplay winner and defending champion. He successfully defended his title here in 2016 but the competition is tough these days.
He starts as favourite. Beware the injured player? He does makes plenty of appeal.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 5.50
4 Gerwyn Price
Last year’s runner up, Price came up dry in the majors in 2022. This was his only ranking final.
Price has won two Euro Tour titles this season and while his win rate of 69% is some way off his 80% in 2021, his seasonal average of 99.2 is nearly two points up on 2022.
He has won six of his last ten matches and while there is little wrong with his game, he isn’t picking up as many titles as he should be given his scoring power. He has the game to win and remains shortlisted.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 5.50
5 Rob Cross
A winner on the Euro Tour and the Pro Tour in 2023. Cross won this title in 2019 but failed to get beyond the second round in his other five appearances.
His most recent form saw him getting knocked out of the Polish Masters last Friday by Ratajski in the first round. He then played in the two Pro Tour events on Monday and Tuesday, winning three of his five matches. That means he has lost five of his last ten.
I find Cross hard to read but he doesn’t quite get my vote.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 26.00
6 Luke Humphries
Cool Hand has been kind to us this year. He won the European Matchplay two weeks ago and backed that up by winning PC15 on Monday.
His form on the Euro Tour has been excellent. He has reached five of the ten finals, winning one. That he is still going off at double figure odds is wrong, but long live those odds.
He is a complete player, now very experienced and comfortable winning finals. Some may bemoan his lack of a major title but he has only played in 25 ranked majors and in that time, reached three World Championship quarter finals, a UK Open final, a European Championship quarter final and the semi-final of Grand Slam and Players Championship finals.
In 2022 he had two ranking quarter finals and two semis. Doors are being knocked on and one will open. Humphries has a seasonal win rate of 74%, has won twelve of his last thirteen matches and he has to be on anyone’s shortlist.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 15.00
7 Jonny Clayton
We haven’t seen much peak Ferreting for a while, but Clayton is never far from his best form. He has tended to do much of his winning in non-ranked majors, winning five and being runner up in another.
In terms of ranking majors he has won one, been runner up once, reaching four more semi-finals and four quarter finals. He has won big finals and the ranking vs. non-ranking thing is just a co-incidence.
However, his Matchplay record isn’t great, winning just one match from five appearances. It is by far his weakest major. His recent form is decent with eight wins from his last ten matches. He has arguably the best B game in the sport.
He has picked up a Euro Tour and Players Championship title in 2023. There is little wrong with his game but that terrible Matchplay record is a big negative.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 21.00
8 Danny Noppert
The last of the prime seeds historically. Noppert made a big impact in the majors in 2022. He won the UK Open, was a semi-finalist in the Matchplay and a quarter finalist in the European Championship and Players Championship. That was enough to raise him to 8th in the world rankings.
2023 started with a Players Championship title but he was overlooked for the Premier League. His 2023 win rate is 62%, down from 71% in 2022, and his average has slipped a little. He hasn’t kicked on but is a dangerous opponent, especially when in form.
Noppert is playing some nice stuff, reaching a lot of Euro Tour quarter finals, but he lacks the consistency to get proper long runs going. He has won six of his last ten matches, hit six 97+ averages, but also three sub 90s, and it is that B game that lets him down.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 51.00
9 Nathan Aspinall
The 2019 UK Open remains The Asp’s only TV title but he strung some good runs together in 2022. He reached the final of the Grand Prix and Grand Slam and the quarter final here. He was a quarter finalist in this year’s UK Open.
His 2023 win rate is down to 57%, but his average up to 96.4. It must be said that he is not a prodigious title winner. His most recent form has seen some excellent scoring, big averages, but too many defeats. He has lost five of his last ten matches but he had been in better form quite recently.
2023 World Matchplay Darts: Odds – 29.00
10 Dimitri van den Bergh
If you are a ‘horses for courses’ punter, Dimitri is for you. He has played in just three Matchplays but has won on debut in 2020, was runner up in 2021 and a semi-finalist last year.
He has gone well in the first two ranked majors of 2023, reaching the semi-finals of both the World Championship and UK Open. However, his form outside of those has not been great.
His seasonal win rate is just 56% and he hasn’t won a ranking event since 2021. Most recently he has won six of his last ten matches but shown a great deal of inconsistency.
He was runner up in the World Series Polish Masters last week and he does have a great record in those events, another horses for courses formline. His form says no, but his tournament record demands respect.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 29.00
11 Dirk van Duijvenbode
Dirk is back! He was in great form earlier in the season, winning three Players Championships. He injured his knee at the Dutch Darts Championship at the end of April and his form suffered. Dirk was still winning matches, but his power scoring dropped off and his win rate dropped.
However, he has been showing signs of a return to his best form. His knee is getting better and he is now able to spend more time practising. The improvement can be seen from his results.
He made the final of the European Matchplay two weeks ago, and won six of his eight matches at the two Players Championships earlier this week. He hit six 99+ averages and hit 38 maximums. That is prime Aubergenius.
Quarter Finalist
He reached the quarter final last year and while his ranking major record is not extensive, he has made one final, a semi-final and five quarter finals. How he performed in the final of the recent Euro Tour final was a concern.
He really wants to win a Euro Tour title, he has reached two finals this season and lost both, both in a deciding leg. His desperation to win stopped him doing just that.
Dirk has won 74% of his matches in 2023 and seven of his last ten. His form makes him a contender, but his emotions, his adrenaline control, can let him down.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 26.00
12 Dave Chisnall
He is now the undisputed best player never to have won a ranking major. Can he take inspiration from Michael Smith and shed that tag? He has to be given serious consideration at the very least.
Chizzy sits on top of the Pro Tour OOM and the Euro Tour OOM. He has won 70% of his matches in 2023. He has won two Euro Tour titles and been runner up in another.
Chisnall hasn’t won a Players Championship this year but was runner up in PC15 on Monday. He played nine matches across the two Players Championships this week, won seven and hit six ton plus averages.
Matchplay Form
His record in the Matchplay is extensive. He has played twelve and reached five quarter finals, the last in 2018. His overall record in ranking majors sees four runners up spots, four losing semi-finals and eighteen losing quarter finals.
When he gets to the later stages of a major tournament with the word final in the title, you have to watch from behind the sofa.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 26.00
13 Joe Cullen
In his mind, one of the top players. On the record he has won one non ranking major, last year’s Masters. That got him into the Premier League and he was runner up in that.
In the ranking majors, he has reached two semi-finals (both in the European Championships) and lost six other quarter finals, including one here. Not bad, but not great.
His 2023 form is decent, winning 62% of his matches and his most recent form see eight wins from his last ten matches, reaching the quarter final of PC15 on Monday and the semi-final of PC16 on Tuesday. He has enjoyed a lot of good runs on the Euro Tour and in Players Championships.
His Players Championships have yielded three quarter finals and two semi-finals and on the Euro Tour one quarter final and two semi-finals. He comes into this tournament in great form and a decent run is possible.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 81.00
14 Damon Heta
Like Cullen, Damon Heta comes into this event in great form, but unlike Cullen, Heta has been converting good runs into titles. He has won PC14 last month and PC16 on Tuesday. On the Euro Tour he has reached two quarter finals and four semi-finals.
I am often a bit hard on Heta, but only because he hadn’t been converting good runs into titles. He has now done it twice on the floor in the last month. Is Heta about to move up a level and start realising his potential on the big stages?
So far, he has played in nineteen ranked majors and reached three quarter finals. He has played in two Matchplays and lost both first round matches. Heta has won 68% of his matches in 2023 and won nine of his last ten.
He is in top form but his performances in majors does bother me. Since reaching the quarter final of the 2022 UK Open, Heta has fallen at the first fence in six of seven ranked majors.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 67.00
15 Ryan Searle
Searle is another player who hasn’t quite replicated his floor form on the big stage.
He has won a Players Championship title every year since 2020, but his Euro Tour form is indifferent at best and in ranking majors he has made one final, the Players Championship finals in 2021, and Grand Prix Semi-final also in 2021.
Searle isn’t the same player when the TV cameras are around. His recent form is encouraging, reaching the semi-final of PC15 on Monday and he has won seven of his last ten matches.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 81.00
16 James Wade
The Boys are Not Back in Town anymore, but Wadey is still standing. The 2007 World Matchplay champion had a tremendous record in this event. Between 2006 and 2015, Wade reached at least the quarter finals, won it once and was runner up five times. Since 2016 he has lost three first round matches, three second round matches and a quarter final.
His form in 2023 is OK, winning 63% of his matches and upping his seasonal average to 95. His recent form is good, winning seven of his last ten matches and he reached the quarter final of PC16 on Tuesday.
He was a beaten semi-finalist at the European Matchplay two weeks ago, averaging 109 in a 5-7 defeat to Luke Humphries. Good enough to roll back the years and have another big run in Blackpool? He thinks so and if you agree the odds are big.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 67.00
The Unseeded Players
Unseeded players have not had great record in the last ten years, with the exception of Van den Bergh in 2020 when it was played behind closed doors at the MK Arena, Milton Keynes.
That is a bit surprising given the strength in depth of talent these days. The unseeded players don’t have to play an extra round or have any built in disadvantage, but the cream has risen to the top.
Josh Rock
Not in his best form of late and is very inexperienced in the majors. His time will come, but maybe not this time. He has the firepower to live with the very best players and has been building up stage experience on the Euro Tour but recently he has lost five of his last ten matches and he has looked a bit frustrated.
He is the markets joint 5th favourite which is very short despite his potential.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 21.00
Martin Schindler
Yet to win a senior PDC title of any kind and that suggests that this will be beyond him. He has plateaued somewhat in the last year or so, looking very good at times, but not able to get over the winning line. He has won six of his last ten and he can be a dangerous opponent but a long run would be a surprise.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 126.00
Ross Smith
Winner of the European Championship last year but Smith has endured a very frustrating 2023. He is playing better than ever and won PC5 back in March but since then he has struggled to get many good runs going due to finding opponents who play their best stuff against him.
He has been losing matches with ton plus averages, doing little wrong but just not winning. More worrying is that he comes here on the back of losing six of his last ten and his last four in a row.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 67.00
Krzysztof Ratajski
The Polish Eagle is another player who has never really transferred his floor game to the stage. He has six senior floor titles under his belt but 2021 aside, his major performances have been disappointing.
In 2021 he reached the semi-final here and three other major quarter finals but since then he has headed home reasonably early. He was a quarter finalist in the behind closed doors Matchplay in 2020, so this has been his most lucrative major. He has lost six of his last ten matches and makes no appeal.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 81.00
Jose de Sousa
Not the player he was in 2020-2021. He was the world number 7 at the end of 2021, he won the 2020 Grand Slam and had three major quarter finals since, including one here last year.
He reached the semi-final of PC16 on Tuesday, just to remind us that he can still play and he has won six of his last ten matches. Mercurial may be the best way to describe Jose. He can be a tough opponent but it’s hard to see a really deep run.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 201.00
Andrew Gilding
This year’s UK Open winner gets his fourth shot at the Matchplay. He has only won one match here in the past and outside of the UK Open, his record in majors is poor. His win rate in 2023 is 65% and he has won seven of his last ten matches. He reached the quarter final of PC16 on Tuesday.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 151.00
Gary Anderson
Not seeded for the first time in a long time. Anderson has upped his game in 2023. From verging on retirement, he has started to practice again and still wants to compete, especially in the majors.
His win rate in 2023 is 68% and he has put a couple of points on his seasonal average, now up to 97.9. This is right up there with the big boys.
He has reached three Players Championship finals and won one. Anderson won this in 2018, his last ranking major win. He was runner up in 2020 (in Milton Keynes) but he hasn’t been the force he was in majors. He will be keen shut his critics up by winning another major and he has the game to do it.
His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and by and large, he has been very consistent in 2023, so a decent run would be no surprise.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 34.00
Stephen Bunting
Reached the quarter final here in 2019 but outside of that he has won just one more match in eight appearances. His recent form sees six wins from ten but he hasn’t done much since reaching the quarter final of the World Championship.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 151.00
Gabriel Clemens
Went one better than Bunting and reached the semi-final of the World Championships. This will be his fourth Matchplay and he has only won one match. His win rate in 2023 is just 53% and he has lost five of his last ten matches. His lack of consistency will get found out soon enough.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 151.00
Chris Dobey
Remains one of the heavier scorers in the game but he has never won a match here in three appearances. His win rate in 2023 is only 53%. He has won six of his last ten and while his scoring can be very heavy, it lacks a bit of consistency.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 81.00
Raymond van Barneveld
Barney was runner up in 2010 but hasn’t qualified since 2018. Between 2012 and 2018 he reached the second round five times and lost two first round matches. His win rate in 2023 is 62%, his best since 2015.
He has won five of his last ten matches but lost the last three in a row. Another second round exit? He actually has a decent draw, if he can get past Ryan Searle in the first round. They have met twice in 2023 and its one win each, both 6-5 results.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 126.00
Daryl Gurney
A two time World Matchplay semi-finalist with the last back in 2019. His major form rather dried up in 2022, the first year he hadn’t made at least one major quarter final since 2014.
Superchin has played in seven Matchplays and has only lost two first round matches. He faces Rob Cross in round one, a repeat of THAT semi-final in 2019 in which Gurney surrendered a big lead and lost 15-17. Cross then went on to win the title.
Gurney has a 2023 win rate of 64% (his best since 2017) and seasonal average of 94.4, up over two points on 2021. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten and while his A game is still there, the consistency isn’t.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 201.00
Mike de Decker
Has made some progress in 2023 but remains a bit of an underachiever. Qualifying for this for the first time is a sign of improvement and he reached his first Pro Tour final in May. His most recent form sees six wins from ten but his scoring is too inconsistent to think a good run is coming. Ranked 7th for 180s per leg in the last 12 months.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 151.00
Steve Beaton
Will be making his 22nd appearance in the Matchplay. His best result came with a semi-final in 2001 and he made the quarters in 2016, but he has made thirteen first round exits, including the last four. His recent form is six wins from ten.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 501.00
Brendan Dolan
Dolan has played in eight previous Matchplays, reaching the second round three times, the last time in 2016. He has lost his last three first round matches. His win rate in 2023 is a healthy 65% but he is a floor merchant rather than a stage player. He had a run to the semi-final of PC15 on Monday and has won seven of his last ten.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 401.00
Kim Huybrechts
The last of the qualifiers. Huybrechts has also played in eight previous Matchplays and only won one match. His 2023 win rate is just 54% and his recent form is worst of anyone in the tournament, losing seven of his last ten matches and his last five in a row.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Odds – 401.00
The Draw
1st Quarter
The four seeds are Michael Smith, Danny Noppert, Nathan Aspinall and James Wade. Michael Smith is the 2.10 favourite to win the quarter, the strongest favourite in any quarter. He faces Steve Beaton in round one and he is 8-2 in their last ten.
Smith has a winning H2H record with everyone in the quarter except James Wade, who he could face in round two. Smith has lost in round two seven times. An omen? If he was to fall, Aspinall makes the most appeal to win the quarter and he is the 6.00 second favourite.
2nd Quarter
Joint tournament favourite Gerwen Price is the 2.20 favourite to win the quarter. He does look to have his work cut out, however. He plays Stephen Bunting in the first round and given Bunting’s poor tournament record and their H2H record, he wins that.
I would expect Joe Cullen to beat De Decker in their first round clash. Price and Cullen are 5-5 over their last ten matches, so that is no given for Price.
Cross, Gurney, Chisnall and Anderson are in the bottom half of the quarter and Price doesn’t dominate Anderson (11-11 and 0-2 in 2023) and he is 7-6 vs. the in-form Chisnall. If Price is to win the quarter he is likely to be well tested from round 2 onwards.
The Anderson vs. Chisnall first round match is a big one. Both players are in good form and capable of a deep run. Anderson is 19-7in their H2H but Chizzy has won their last two and he is in better form right now. Chisnall beat Price in their only match this year but Price beat Chizzy 11-8 in this event last year. For me, this quarter is Price or Chisnall.
3rd Quarter
For some reason Peter Wright is the 3.75 favourite to win the 3rd quarter. That means good value on the other seven players odds.
My favourite to win what looks like the easiest of the four quarters is Jonny Clayton, but he’s not a strong fancy as his tournament record is poor. However, he has drawn Gabriel Clemens in the first round and he is 11-2 against the German Giant. If he wins that, it should settle him into the tournament.
He has a losing record against tournament specialist Dimitri van den Bergh, but its 2-2 in 2023. He also has losing H2H records against Wright (but he has won the last three), Gilding and Ryan Searle.
Messy Group
It is a messy group with no real stand out candidates. Dimitri van den Bergh is the tournament specialist but he kicks off against Ross Smith with whom he is 2-5. Dimitri is not in great form, but he is a better stage player than floor player and this is his event. However he has losing records against Smith, Searle, Gilding and Wright.
It is an open looking group but Clayton’s consistency makes the most appeal. Van den Bergh has made the semi-final twice in three Matchplays, so he can be considered. It is so open that the 15.00 for Andrew Gilding to win the quarter is not a silly bet either.
4th Quarter
It is VERY annoying when your two leading fancies for the tournament are drawn in the same quarter.
MVG is joint favourite to win the tournament and while odds of 5.50 are not great, he is a three time winner in the last eight years and he was in mighty form at the Polish Masters, hitting three tons and thrashing Humphries and Van den Bergh along the way.
He averaged 107 across his three matches. He didn’t play the Players Championships earlier in the week and he looks well prepared, despite his dental woes.
Red Hot Humphries
Luke Humphries is on fire but he could hardly lay a glove on MVG in Poland, despite averaging 105 himself. He carried that form into PC15 and won it before an early exit on Tuesday. He and MVG look the best two players going into the tournament, but only one can make the semi-final.
But what of the rest of the 4th quarter? It is dripping with class. We have PC16 winner, Damon Heta, playing hot shot Josh Rock. The returning to peak form Dirk van Duijvenbode, and even Jose de Sousa showed some form earlier in the week. Only Brendan Dolan and Kim Huybrechts can be dismissed as a possible quarter winner.
MVG is the 2.50 favourite to win the quarter, Humphries 4.33, Dirk 6.00 and Heta 11.00. This truly is the Group of Death.
There is quarter betting on this event and also a market for which quarter will produce the winner. I think this group has the most potential winners in it.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Tip: 2 points 4th Quarter to be the winning quarter @ 3.00 generally available
2023 World Matchplay Darts: Ante Post Selections
Despite losing 2-6 to MVG in Poland last weekend, I will keep the faith in Luke Humphries. His time for his first major is near, he is full of confidence and in peak form. He is in the toughest group and just winning the quarter is a tough task, but he has won enough for us recently to reinvest some of the profits into his chances.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Tip: 1 point e/w Luke Humphries to win the World Matchplay @ 15.00 with Betfred, Boylesports, Skybet, BET365
Looking for a player, or players, from the top half of the draw and I have four on the shortlist. Michael Smith, Gerwyn Price, Dave Chisnall and Gary Anderson.
Chisnall and Anderson meet in the first round and that is a huge match. Whoever wins that is in with a good shout of making the semi-final. Chisnall is in better form, winning eight of his last ten matches and scoring great. Anderson has the better H2H form but these days, they are hard to separate.
The downside for Chisnall is that he hasn’t won a major and he has had plenty of chances. For Anderson, it has been five years since he won his last major. Gerwyn Price has lost four of his last ten matches, so he is not in peak form and at odds of 5.50, I’d want every box ticked.
Smith Well Drawn
Michael Smith has won eight of his last ten matches, is the number 1 seed, is a World Champion and has a decent draw.
I do worry that he could lose a second round clash with James Wade, but in the longer format matches, he should have too much for most players, never mind Wade, but he has to get past that second round hoodoo.
If he can, he can motor on to the final. He has won two of the last nine ranking majors and been runner up in three. He is now a proper big tournament contender AND potential winner, which he wasn’t this time last year.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Tip: 2 points Michael Smith to win the World Matchplay @ 7.00 with SpreadEx
The final bet is a smaller play on Jonny Clayton to win the third quarter. It is the most open of the quarters and while Clayton doesn’t have a good record in the event, his game is in good shape and he is arguably the most consistent player in the quarter.
2023 World Matchplay Darts Tip: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win the 3rd Quarter @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes
I’ll be previewing every match of the tournament, which kicks off on Saturday evening.
