2023 World Matchplay Final Preview & Tips – JP
2023 World Matchplay Final Tips
Another two winners for James Punt on Saturday night. His last three match tips have all won, hopefully the hot streak continues tonight. Get his 2023 World Matchplay Final tips below.
Semi Final Thoughts
Last night saw the end of our hopes of a big pay day. Jonny Clayton got the better of Luke Humphries to win 17-15. It was a fair enough result but frustrating to get so close to the payout zone.
The net tally for the night was -0.48 points, leaving us with an eye watering profit of +0.37 points. But there is still one more match to go, the final.
Nathan Aspinall vs Jonny Clayton
The last ten Matchplay finals have not seen many close matches. There was one of the all time great finals in 2018 when Anderson beat Suljovic 21-19. The next closest score was a 18-14 last year when MVG beat Price. Half of the last ten matches have seen under 29 legs played.
Aspinall will be playing in his fourth major ranking final and he has lost two of the previous three. He also lost the final of the non-ranking 2020 Premier League final.
The more experienced Jonny Clayton has played just two ranking major finals and won one. He has also played in three non-ranking finals and won all three, as well as winning two World Cups. The Ferret has more experience and more winning experience.
Recent Form
Recent form sees Aspinall winning six of his last ten matches and he has been playing very well this week, averaging 97.7. Twelve of his last sixteen matches have seen 98+ averages so he is hitting big numbers consistently.
Jonny Clayton’s tournament record is 96.55 and he has won eight of his last ten. He too is hitting solid averages, not quite as heavy scoring as Aspinall, but close enough.
Clayton is the better player on the doubles, checking out at 50% or better in seven of his last ten, whereas Aspinall has only managed it four times.
180s
Aspinall has been the biggest 180 hitter in the tournament having hit 37 at a rate of 0.37 per leg. Clayton has only managed to hit 18 maximums at a rate of 0.19. He does hit plenty of 140’s but not the 180’s. Aspinall is the power scorer, Clayton the grinder with a stronger finish. Aspinall is the 1.25 favourite to hit the most 180’s.
Their H2H record is 6-3 to Clayton with a draw in the premier league. Clayton has won four of their last five with Aspinall winning their last match 6-1 in a PL match back in May.
Aspinall says that defeat is not on the menu tonight while Jonny is doing it for his dad who isn’t very well. So who will it be?
Ferret The Fav
The market is making Jonny Clayton the 1.73 favourite with Aspinall 2.25. That looks about right and you can argue a case for both players. Clayton is more accustomed to winning on the big stage.
Aspinall hasn’t done it since that great performance to land the UK Open in 2019. My guess is that he will be feeling it more than Clayton.
If both play like they have been this week we should have a close match, even if the stats say we should not expect one. In the last ten years only two matches went beyond 31 legs (18-13).
