2023 World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tips – JP
2023 World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tips
It was a profitable night for James Punt on Friday. His sole bet for the night won, Jonny Clayton landed his winning quarter tip and even better, his 15.00 o/r fancy Luke Humphries made it through to the final four. Hopefully there’s more of the same on the menu on Saturday, get his 2023 World Matchplay semi-finals tips below.
Friday Reflections
It was a much better night for us last night. Jonny Clayton beat Ryan Searle 16-11 to land our bet to win his quarter at @ 4.50, and our 2 point bet on Humphries vs. Heta to be over 27.5 legs won.
That was a 5.32 profit on the night and takes us black into the black for the tournament at +0.852 points.
Our 15.00 e/w selection, Luke Humphries is still there and is now the 3.25 second favourite, after tonight’s opponent, Jonny Clayton who is now the 3.20 favourite. We still have the winner to come from the 4th quarter bet. Hopefully that can be Cool Hand Luke, for some double bubble.
Nathan Aspinall vs. Joe Cullen
There is not much between the two players in terms of tournament average with Aspinall on 98.6 and 97.3 for Cullen.
The Asp is on a good run of consistent scoring, despite losing four of his last ten matches. These longer formats are rewarding that consistency.
Since the end of the Premier League he has played sixteen matches with a lowest average of 91.5, and twelve averages over 98. He’ll take some beating if he carries that on.
Consistent Cullen
Joe Cullen has won eight of his last ten matches and he too has been scoring consistently high with a low of 92 and four over 98. Not quite as consistent as Aspinall but still very good.
Their H2H record is 9-6 to Aspinall and The Asp has won their last five in a row. They met in the UK Open in March and Aspinall won that 10-2. Those results will give Nathan plenty of confidence that he can do it again.
Cullen has looked the more nervous of the two and his record in ranking semi-finals is played two, lost two. Aspinall has played six and won three, including two last season.
2023 World Matchplay semi-finals Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 1.67 with SpreadEx, Hills, BET365
Jonny Clayton vs. Luke Humphries
It is straight back on the horse for these two players who played last night. Both were in fine form, Clayton beating Ryan Searle 16-12.
It was a close match for most of the time but Searle’s comparative lack of long match experience told in the end. It was nip and tuck with neither player able to get a lead of any consequence. Clayton hit a patch of top form winning three legs on the spin to go 13-9 up and he held it from there. He had 10 winning legs of 15 darts or less.
Strange Match
Luke Humphries had a strange one against Damon Heta with breaks of throw dominating. Neither player could make the breaks count but eventually Humphries got a three leg lead, hit a hot streak and went 13-8 up and he seemed to have broken Heta by this time.
Heta then rallied to win four in a row but he was always chasing and eventually Luke hit a 15 darter leg to end it 16-13. Humphries hit 11 legs with 15 or less darts.
Luke Humphries has played just three ranking major semi-finals and won one. Jonny Clayton has played six and won two, but he has a lot of non-ranking TV tournament wins and is far more experienced in these big matches. He has lost his last five TV semi-finals so his more recent experience is of losing semi-finals so it is not all good news in that respect.
Averages
Tournament average wise it is 97.43 for Humphries and 95.7 for Clayton. The Ferret’s average is dragged down by an 87.9 in his opening match but since then he’s played much better. His distractions with his father’s illness put him out of his stride in the opener, but since then, he may be ‘doing it for Dad’ and getting energy from the situation.
Their H2H record is 4-1 to Jonny Clayton but they played just twelve days ago and Humphries finally got his first win against The Ferret. They have played in one TV stage match at last year’s Players Championship finals, Clayton winning 10-9.
We have a lot riding on Humphries. He makes the final and we land the place part of our outright bet, and he is batting for our 4th quarter bet. That’s 4 points on his back. Time to hedge? I think so. I won’t do a total hedge but a 3 pointer on Clayton will take the sting out of a loss for Humphries.
Tight Market
The market is struggling to split them, with Humphries a best price 1.92 and Clayton 1.95. Of their five matches played, three required a deciding leg, one was 6-4 and the last one 6-3.
This is a different kettle of fish, a first to 17 leg match so it’s unlikely to go to a decider. I would expect a close one, but I worry that Clayton’s greater experience could be the deciding factor.
Humphries does have an explosive A game, probably better than Clayton’s, but these long matches are often about consistency and I’d give the nod to Jonny in that department. Hoping it is Humphries that wins, but it makes sense to minimise any losses.
