2023 World Series Darts Finals Outright Betting Preview

The 2023 World Series Darts Finals takes place in Amsterdam this weekend. It is a non-ranking event made up of twenty four players. The top eight from the World Series OOM, eight invited players from around the globe and eight tour card qualifiers.

It is a glorified exhibition event but the winner picks up £70000, the runner up £30000 all the way down to £5000 for first round losers. Just about worth getting out of bed for the likes of four time winner Michael van Gerwen and two time winner Gerwyn Price.

Price is the defending champion having beaten Dirk van Duijvenbode 11-10 last year. There have only been four different winners of the title, MVG, Price, Wade and Clayton.

The Seeds

1 Rob Cross

Cross won the two titles down under and is enjoying his best season for some time, winning the two World Series events, his first Euro Tour title and Players Championship title. He was runner up in this in 2020.

Cross’ most recent form is OK, winning six of his last ten and he is playing with more consistency. He isn’t the best player in the event on form, but if he brings his A game, and it has been on show much more often in 2023, he can go deep.

2 Gerwyn Price 

Arguably the best player in the world right now. Price didn’t win a World Series title but was runner up in the first two. He has won twice on the Euro Tour despite not playing in many events, he has won the World Cup once again, was the Premier League runner up and won two Players Championship titles, both in the last three weeks.

He will be keen to make it three World Series titles which will set him up nicely for the big money events that are coming up in the run up to the World Championships.

3 Michael Smith 

Winner of the first event on the World Series calendar, The Bahrain Masters. His form has tailed off in recent months, perhaps inevitably after a hectic early season schedule. His last title was Players Championship 13 back in June but his recent form sees seven wins from his last ten.

He has played some very good stuff in those ten, but there have been a few not so good performances. He is the World Champion and remains a contender even if there are a few players in better form.

4 Michael van Gerwen

A seasonal win rate of 69% is right up there but his most recent form is a bit confusing. He has taken a lot of time out to have dental work and that has led to a lot of rust in his game. He has lost five of his last ten matches but worse than that, he has lost five of his last six.

MVG lost to Brendan Dolan in the first round of the World Matchplay, took two months off before returning for the three Players Championship events a couple of weeks ago. He played four matches and won just one, a 6-0 win over Tony Martinez. He lost his others to Suljovic, Graham Usher and Grahame Hall.

Van Gerwen skipped the Euro Tour last weekend to play a couple of exhibition events with Gerwyn Price. He still has the game to win, but where is his all-important confidence?

5 Dimitri van den Bergh

His seasonal win rate is a worrying 54%, and he has won just two of his last ten matches. That is not the sort of form to inspire any confidence in his chances this weekend.

6 Peter Wright

Another player who is not in good form, but he has shown a few signs of coming back. His seasonal win rate is just 48% but he made the semi-final of PC21 just over a week ago and played more like his old self.

However, he went to Jena at the weekend and averaged 89 in a 4-6 loss to Cameron Menzies in his opening match. He didn’t have the full Snakebite hairdo and that usually means that his wife did not travel with him. If he is distracted by any issues off the oche, his performance usually suffers. Hard to fancy.

7 Nathan Aspinall

Took the chance to have a month long break after winning the World Matchplay and fulfilling his World Series duties down under. He returned to action last weekend on the Euro Tour, beating Gian van Veen 6-3 before losing 4-6 to Brian Raman.

The Asp averaged below 90 in both and he was clearly a bit rusty. I expect him to be sharper this weekend, but it is hard to be confident in where his game is after a long break.

8 Luke Humphries

Cool Hand had a rare early exit on the Euro Tour at the weekend, going down 5-6 to Wesley Plaisier in the third round. However, since returning from the summer break, Humphries has played fifteen matches and won twelve, including winning PC20.

His win rate in 2023 is 74% and he is right up there with Gerwyn Price as the best player in the world on recent form. His target now is to start winning majors, and while this isn’t one, it would set him up nicely for the big money events coming up. He has to be on the short list.

2023 World Series Darts Finals: Invited Players

Damon Heta

His seasonal average is worth noting. He ended 2022 on 97.55, but that has dropped to 94.23. His game was built around his heavy scoring and he has just gone off the boil in that respect. Heta’s 2023 win rate is a healthy 67% but he has lost six of his last ten matches and his consistency is not great.

Danny Noppert

Noppert has become one of those steady players who has reasonable runs in tournaments but very rarely threatens to win one. He lost his quarter final in Jena last weekend and that was his ninth straight quarter final loss in 2023.

The Freeze has won seven of his last ten matches and another losing quarter final would be no surprise, but he has a tough draw. He did reach the final in 2019, but there are many more live contenders this weekend.

Jeff Smith

It’s good to see Smith getting an invite. He puts a lot of effort into playing in Europe while living in Canada. His expenses must be wild. His problem is that his scoring isn’t good enough to survive at this level.

The Canadian’s seasonal average is down to just under 89, his win rate 43% and he has lost six of his last ten matches. He plays Raymond van Barneveld in the first round and while he could give him a game, he will have a large crowd on his back.

Jonny Clayton

The 2021 champion loves his non-ranking events but his recent form is a cause for concern. He was runner up in the World Matchplay and very emotional after a disappointing performance in the final. His father had been ill and he had wanted to win it for him.

The Ferret then took time out to be at home, pulling out of the World Series events down under and he finally returned to action at the three Players Championship events a couple of weeks ago. He lost all three first round matches, averaging sub 90 in all three. Rust, or still not totally focused on his game?

Raymond van Barneveld

Barney can still shift tickets and hence his inclusion in the invitees list. He is no more than a journeyman pro these days, playing at a decent level but not being a tournament contender. He has lost six of his last ten matches, but he has played some good stuff. Van Barneveld is hard to get involved with betting wise however, he is inconsistent and hard to predict.

Simon Whitlock

Is the sun finally setting on The Wizard’s top flight career? He has been written off many times before and has always come back like some kind of darting vampire. He is still an above average Pro Tour player and can still put in top class performances, but just not consistently. Whitlock has lost six of his last ten matches but he could make the second round.

Haupai Puha

Hopes has made the journey from New Zealand for this event. At least the prizemoney will cover his expenses and he is not without a chance of making the second round and a meeting with Peter Wright. He played here last year, losing 5-6 to Dirk van Duijvenbode in the first round.

Krzysztof Ratajski

The surprise winner of last weekend’s Euro Tour event. He played well enough but nothing special and it was a funny tournament, with the big guns failing to fire and he was the last man standing. Still, it will only boost his confidence and he remains a talented player, if not at his best. He has won seven of his last ten matches but had four sub 90 averages along the way.

The Qualifiers

Dirk van Duijvenbode

Last year’s runner up is still looking for his first stage win. Last weekend’s German Darts Open presented him with a good chance, but he fell in the quarter final with a 5-6 loss to Josh Rock.

His seasonal win rate of 74% is matched only by Luke Humphries and he has won eight of his last ten matches. He gets involved in a lot of final leg deciders and that is putting a lot of pressure on him. He needs to start dominating players, especially players who he should be smashing up.

Dirk could/should go deep again, but is he mentally strong enough to get a big one over the line? The jury is still out on that one. He faces fellow Dutchman Danny Noppert in the first round and he is 5-8 with him. Aspinall awaits the winner and Dirk is 3-7 against him. A tough draw in other words.

Martin Schindler

Continues to be everywhere but never wins titles. Like Noppert, he loses a lot of quarter finals and farms a decent amount of money, but a title winner in waiting? That is hard to see.

He has won seven of his last ten matches and he is 3-1 against Jonny Clayton, his first round opponent. If he can do it again, he faces the in-form Rob Cross and he is only 3-7 against Voltage.

Ricky Evans 

Not so Rapid Ricky Evans is using new darts and employing a more modest pace of play. He has improved his average by a couple of points compared to 2022, so he is heading the right way.

A seasonal win rate of 51% suggests a decent run is unlikely, however, and he has lost five of his last ten matches. On the plus side, he faces Damon Heta in the first round and if he can beat the out of form Aussie, he faces the very out of form Van den Bergh. The road to a quarter final is not the hardest, but that is where things should end.

Gabriel Clemens

Hasn’t kicked on since making the semi-final of the World Championship. He has improved his averages and is picking up nice money, but he is another German who threatens to break through, but hasn’t.

His win rate is 58% and he has won seven of his last ten matches. He faces William O’Connor in the first round and he has won their last four matches in a row. Clemens has lost both his previous first round matches in the event but he could progress to the second round where he would face MVG. He is 0-3 against Mighty Mike.

Graham Usher

Won his four qualifying matches to get here, had a recent win over MVG and will be feeling good about things. He occasionally shows a good A game but his seasonal average of around 90 suggests he will struggle sooner rather than later. He played in three Euro Tour events in 203 but only won one match.

Daniel Klose

Hit good form in PC21 couple of weeks ago, reached the final and gave Gerwyn Price a game, losing 6-8. That was very much out of the blue as he had been struggling in his first year on the Pro Tour.

The confidence boost helped him qualify for this event and he will be on cloud nine. He will need to keep playing his A game to make any great impression. He faces Euro Tour winner Ratajski in the first round, and Luke Humphries in the second, should he beat the Polish Eagle.

Keegan Brown

Had to go back to Q school in January but regained his card and his long run on the Pro Tour continues. He reached the quarter final of ET1 but has done little else since. He has lost six of his last ten and while he can hit the high notes from time to time, he can’t be expected to do much this weekend.

Brown faces Simon Whitlock in the first round and a win there is within his grasp, but he would then face Gerwyn Price.

William O’Connor

Has lost five of his last ten matches and hit five sub 90 averages. Occasionally he strings a good match performance together but his win rate is just 56% and he isn’t playing well enough to think he can have a good run at the 2023 World Series Darts Finals. He faces Gabriel Clemens in the first round and the big German is something of a bogey man for him.

2023 World Series Darts Finals: Ante Post Selections

There are three players who are in great form coming into the 2023 World Series Darts Finals. Gerwyn Price, Luke Humphries and Dirk van Duijvenbode.

Dirk has got a very tough draw versus two players against whom he struggles, and his tournament win rate on stage is notably absent. For that reason, he gets binned.

Gerwyn Price is a two time tournament winner, is in great form and is the obvious choice. His path to the semi-final is a good one, he has great H2H record against his likely opponents and his biggest challenge is most likely to be a semi-final against Michael Smith.

Smith has a winning H2H against Price and in 2023 he is 5-4 up. Price looks in better form right now, but it would be a close match to call.

Hard Draw Humphries

Luke Humphries has a harder draw. He should face last weekend’s winner, Krzysztof Ratajski, in the second round, Cross in the quarter and MVG in the semi-final. He has losing H2H record against them all. That is not to say he can’t make the final, but it does look harder on paper.

Others to consider are Rob Cross, MVG and Michael Smith, but recent form wise, MVG is not so solid, Cross never goes well when I back him and Smith has not looked in great form for a while.

They could do it. MVG is a four time winner and on home soil. Cross is feeling more confident than for a long time and Smith can kick off at any time. Cross and Smith have both been runners up in the past.

Gerwyn Price is the 5.00 co-favourite with MVG. Michael Smith is 7.00, Humphries 9.00 and Cross 17.00.

2023 World Series Darts Finals Tip: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win @ 5.00 with Hills, Boylesports, Skybet, Fitzdares

2023 World Series Darts Finals Tip: 0.5 point e/w Rob Cross to win @ 17.00 with Unibet, Betvictor, Skybet, Fitzdares

This event clashes with the Singapore GP this weekend, but hopefully I can find the time to cover at least some of the matches that look to offer some value bets. Stay tuned.

-JamesPunt