2024 Abu Dhabi GP Outright Betting Preview – JP

by | Dec 4, 2024

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Betting Preview

Things didn’t go to plan for James Punt (or McLaren) at the Qatar GP. We will be finishing well ahead for the season no matter what happens this weekend, but hopefully we can finish the campaign with a flourish. Check out James’ 2024 Abu Dhabi GP outright betting preview and tips below.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP

Last weekend’s race was another loser. Race day was a wipeout. Russell’s race was effectively over in the first corner. Hulkenberg spent his race being driven into various times before he had to retire.

Bottas had his best result of the year, but he lost out to his teammate, who finished eighth. Our ante post best on Norris and McLaren looked to be just about over the line, before he missed a yellow flag, didn’t lift, and was given a draconian 10 second stop – go penalty.

We rarely see a stop- go penalty being issued, it is the second most severe penalty at the stewards’ discretion. Only disqualification is more harsh. Was it proportionate? Hardly. There were no marshals on the track, there was no safety car and indeed the stewards thought the problem ( a wing mirror that had fallen off Albone’s creaking Williams) was so minor, they left it lying out on the track for six laps.

Only when Bottas drove over it, did they deploy a safety car. It was incompetent stewarding and I have to wonder, were the stewards very harsh on Norris to distract from their own short comings?

Harsh Penalty

Norris didn’t lift under a yellow flag. You get a penalty for that. It is a slam dunk. The penalty applied is at the stewards’ discretion. Why they decided to hand down such a harsh one? Well…it keeps the Constructors’ Championship battle alive and avoids this weekend’s race being the deadest of dead rubbers. A 5 second penalty looked the likely penalty, but that would hardly have made any difference, so the heavy artillery was brought out.

Overall it was a 5.27 point loss, taking the season to date tally to +55.68.

We now make the short hop over to Abu Dhabi for the final race of an overly long season. Everyone is knackered, the drivers couldn’t care less and if we didn’t have the Constructors’ title to finalise, I guess the viewing figures would be on the floor. McLaren lead by 21 points from Ferrari. It is a straight fight between the two, McLaren are the 1.14 favourites and Ferrari 7.00.

New Face

We will have a new face on the grid for this race. Esteban Ocon has been granted permission to terminate his contract early and will be replaced by Jack Doohan, who will be driving the Alpine next season. He gets a chance to make is debut in this year’s car.

Alpine are only five points clear of Haas in the constructors table, so they are taking a bit of a risk in putting a rookie in the second car. Yes, Ocon had not been in good form and his second place in Brazil was just a fortuitous freak result. Perhaps the team just thought he was not good enough?

At the time of writing there is no news as to whether Lewis Hamilton will be driving this weekend. His strop reached new lows during the race last Sunday as he told the team he wanted to come into the pits to retire the car. Not because there was anything wrong with it, just that he was hating having to drive the car.

That is the same car that George Russell drove to fourth place. Pathetic and unprofessional. It would be better for all if he just stayed away and gave their reserve driver a go. I am sure they would appreciate the chance.

The 2024 Abu Dhabi GP Circuit

First used in 2009, the Yas Marina track is another Herman Tilke designed track. Its signature feature is a 1.2 km straight that terminates with a sharp left right combination corner. The heavy braking offers up an overtaking/collision opportunity, before another long, flat out blast into a 180 degree double apex corner.

That is followed by a slow technical sector with seven corners in quick succession. There is another modest straight at the end of the lap before a 90 degree left hander leading into the only fast, flowing corners, before a hairpin leading back to the long straight. It is a soulless place.

Long straights and lots of slow corners, sounds very much in Ferrari’s ballpark. However, it is a track on which Ferrari have never won. Since the beginning of the turbo-hybrid era, Mercedes have won six times (2014 to 2019) and Max Verstappen has won the last four and been on the podium for the last six.

Leclerc has been second for the last two years. Norris has a steady if unspectacular record here. He has always finished in the top 8 with a best result of fifth, twice.

Pole Position Important

This track has been a good one for the pole position driver, winning the last nine Abu Dhabi GPs in a row. The attrition rate has been very high between 2024 and 2018 at 3.20, but in the last five years, it has been just 1.40.

The attrition rate in recent races this season has taken a turn. After two high attrition races in Monaco and Canada, we had ten races which produced a total of just eight cars not classified. We have since had fourteen in the last four races.

Four of the five retirements last weekend were driver related errors. A sign that the schedule of the last few weeks has caught up with them? Some drivers have complained about being tired with the strange schedule in Vegas. Followed by a very long flight to Qatar, for another night race, and another this weekend. Verstappen said that he really wants to see some daylight, and that “I am not a Bat”, which did make me laugh.

The 2024 Abu Dhabi GP Weather

Dry, hot and sunny for all three days, but we are once again racing under the lights. It will still be around 20 degrees but there is 0% chance of rain.

Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Last weekend almost went to plan. They had a 1-2 in the sprint race, but in the race, Norris was hit by that penalty which knocked him to the back of the field. He recovered to finish tenth for a solitary point and another for fastest lap.

Piastri manged to finish 3rd in the race. Norris is now only eight points ahead of Leclerc. If the Ferrari driver wins the race this weekend Norris needs to finish second if we are to collect on our ‘without Verstappen’ bet.

McLaren lead Ferrari by 21 points in the Constructors championship. If McLaren can score 23 points, they are the champions, even if Ferrari got a 1-2 and fastest lap. McLaren have scored at a rate of 27.83 per GP weekends, Ferrari, have scored at a rate of 26.91 per GP.

Ferrari have outscored McLaren in four of the last five races and their biggest gain over McLaren was in Texas. That was a 1-2 finish for Ferrari and a nineteen point gain. A repeat of that would not be enough for Ferrari.

Piastri will be sitting out FP1 to allow their reserve driver to get a run out, but he will still have two sessions to get up to speed for Sunday’s important race.

Ferrari 

On a roll compared to McLaren. They have closed the gap by 38 points in the last five race weekends. They need to be perfect this weekend, and then hope that McLaren cannot score 23 points. The second part is more than likely. McLaren last scored more than 23 points in a Grand Prix in Singapore, six races ago. McLaren have been less than sure footed, and Norris’ lapse in concentration in missing the waved yellows was a case in point.

Ferrari have managed just two 1-2 finishes in 2024 and just four double podiums in total. They are likely to need another double podium this weekend, something they have never achieved here. The track does look to play to their strengths and I expect Leclerc to at least have a podium finish.

Sainz has bagged a third and fourth place in two of the last three years here and their best result in Abu Dhabi was a second and fourth place finish in 2022, yielding 30 points. A repeat of that would leave McLaren needing just nine points.

It looks like Ferrari are going to have a good race, perhaps a win or double podium, but it is a very big ask for them to win the Championship, unless McLaren have a disaster. Ferrari’s biggest threat is unlikely to be McLaren, but Max Verstappen.

Red Bull 

Verstappen has ruled the roost here for the last four years and he has won two of the last three races in 2024. His tail is up again. The Red Bull looked in poor shape last weekend, but not for the first time, the team at the track, combined with the simulator work back at the factory, worked their magic overnight. The result transformed the car into a well-deserved race winner.

Maybe Norris could have closed the gap late in the race, but the dubious stewarding made sure that didn’t happen. Red Bull should have no trouble setting the car up this weekend. Firstly, there is no sprint race this weekend, so the teams can have the usual three one hour sessions to fine tune things. Secondly, they are going for their fifth win in a row on this Yas Marina circuit. They should have a very good baseline set up to start from.

This should be Sergio Perez’ last race for Red Bull. He has a contract to the end of 2026, which the team signed up to only five months ago. Madness. He insists he is staying, Red Bull hope he retires. I think he will want a hefty lump sum to feather his nest. He has scored just nine points in the last six races. He has to go. It is unlikely he goes out with a flourish.

Mercedes 

It will be the last race for Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes. It is all a bit embarrassing. He hates the car and can’t drive it as well as his teammate. What makes it worse is that he is not even trying now. Making a false start last weekend and speeding in the pitlane meant he got two penalties. It was a performance worthy of Sergio Perez. Maybe they could swap cars, just for the LOLs?

Russell is 24 points ahead of Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship, so our ante post bet on that is all but home and hosed. Russell is 8-1 in their last nine qualifying sessions, and 7-2 in the races. George has beaten Hamilton here for the last two years, and that was when Hamilton was trying.

The Yas Marina circuit should suit the Mercedes reasonably well. It is another very smooth circuit which means they can run the car low and stiff. Last week Russell was quick, certainly in qualifying, but the tyre deg over the race distance kept him out of the race. We may see something similar this weekend.

Aston Martin 

Alonso is still doing his best, but in a car that is busting a gut for a point or two. The team managed a double points finish here last year, and Stroll has managed to score points in three of the last four races here.

Alonso was having some problems with battery deployment on the safety car re-starts but he came through the chaos to finish seventh last week. Of course, the terrible stewarding did mix things up, and seventh was flattering.

Alpine 

Gasly’s run of good form has come at a good time for the team. Twenty eight points from the last four race weekends, and that included a DNF in Vegas, where he had qualified third. The team ran him with a new front wing and nose in the last weekend’s races, and he was a top ten runner for most of the weekend.

With more data gathered, he may be quicker still this weekend. The team are now five points clear of Haas, which is a handy lead for teams that are only expected to be picking up minor points. I think that Gasly will be back in the points again this weekend.

Haas 

A bit unlucky in Qatar last weekend The car had top 10 pace, but Hulkenberg had a technical problem in qualifying, only making eighteenth. Any chance he had in the race was hampered, and finally ended by being crashed into.

Magnussen was left to pick up a solitary point on Sunday after Hulkenberg had finished seventh in the sprint race. They have only missed out on points in one of the last six races, and that was in the chaos in Brazil. It will be the last drive for both drivers at Haas, and it would be nice for them to sign off with another top ten.

Hulkenberg had four consecutive top seven finishes here between 2014 and 2017, Magnussen has only had one tenth place as his best result here. If Haas are to score a point, I would have to go for Hulkenberg to get it.

Visa RB 

Out of the fight for sixth place, and now eight points behind Haas in seventh. Tsunoda has shown some good qualifying pace in the last six race weekends, but either he, or the car, does not have great race pace. He has gone well here in the past three years, with finishes of 4/11/8. He will be thereabouts on Saturday, but might just lose out on Sunday.

Liam Lawson has just dropped off the radar. He returned to F1 in impressive style in Texas, scoring two points and did so again in Sao Paulo, but he has been right off the pace in the last two races, and he was poor last weekend, ruining Valtteri Bottas’ race with a clumsy lunge. He is still one of the favourites to replace Perez at Red Bull, but he isn’t looking up to much.

Williams 

It looks like the two cars they have cobbled together with old parts, and borrowed parts, are not very fast. It was no great surprise that the problems with a wing mirror that had fallen off a car last week, came from a Williams. Just the vibrations of going over the kerbs was enough to shake it off. It was probably held on with modelling glue and sticky tape.

A poor season is petering out in a disappointing style. I have never seen a new driver’s stock rise so quickly, and then fall with even greater rapidity, than Colapinto’s. One minute he is making Albon look a bit ordinary and lining up a drive at Red Bull, then the next minute crashing out all over the place and not on anyone’s shopping list.

Sauber 

Pulled off a great result last weekend. The new floor from a couple of weeks ago, was supplemented by a new front wing last weekend. The unusual run of events did them no harm of course, but Zhou ran a good race, looked after the tyres nicely and deserved his eighth place finish.

It was annoying that we backed Bottas, but he got no luck in the race. Could they repeat a points finish this weekend? It would still be a surprise. Qatar was their best venue in 2023, and it looks like it could be in 2024 as well.

Summary

I want to end the season with a profitable race. Five of the last six have been losers, which is disappointing, so I will be taking a cautious approach, and not having too many ante-post bets for now. I suspect Sunday will see the bulk of our bets this weekend.

There are two bets at this stage which look worth striking now. I am leaving the outright market alone until raceday. That pole position record suggests the race winner may be very obvious on Sunday morning.

The first bet is for Pierre Gasly to finish in the points. He is finishing the season with the wind in his sails. Alpine have steadied the ship by putting some serious management in place and pursued upgrades all the way to the end of the season, both of which have paid off.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Tip: 2 points Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 1.73 generally available

The second bet is another points finish bet, this one for Nico Hulkenberg. The Haas is also finishing the season well, with their Texas upgrade making them more competitive. He has gone well here in the past and hopefully the team can get everything in order to give their two departing drivers a good chance to do so in style.

2024 Abu Dhabi GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes

There will be an update before qualifying on Saturday, and the usual Raceday Update on Sunday.

-JamesPunt

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