2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Preview

We had to make do with a solitary 20/1 place at Leopardstown on Sunday. We are back over the jumps this weekend at the Grand National meeting and it should be three days of quality racing. Hopefully we can get back on the winning trail, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Aintree Festival Thursday tips below.

1.45 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

The Mildmay course at Aintree is currently soft, heavy in places. There is no heavy rain forecast before racing starts on Thursday but there’ll be a few showers so conditions are unlikely to improve too much. Another major Spring jumps meeting without decent ground, what a frustrating season it must be for those who were targeting races on nicer ground at the big end of season festivals.

With the above in mind, it is not surprising to see small fields for today’s Grade 1s. Only five will run in this one and Grey Dawning is even money to follow up his Cheltenham win. However, Cheltenham winners have a dire record at this meeting and he would be the first last time out winner to score in this race.

Too Big

I was going to leave this race well alone but the 33/1 about Colonel Harry is too big to turn down. We backed him at Cheltenham in the Turners (20f sft) where he finished well behind Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny in sixth. However, I think he could get an awful lot closer to those two on this more testing ground in a much smaller field.

His form figures on heavy read 112, including a close second in a Sandown G1 Novice Chase. He didn’t have as hard a race at Cheltenham as the two market leaders, Blow Your Wad is best going right handed and I’m not sure Il Etait Temps wants this ground. So, at odds of 33/1, a small e/w bet on Colonel Harry is advised.

2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Colonel Harry e/w @ 33/1

2.20 – 4yo Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)

We just don’t know whether Sir Gino is 100% so this is a race best watched. Nicky Henderson’s charge was seen as the English banker of the week at Cheltenham before the virus struck his yard and if there are any holes in him, this testing ground will find them.

Kargese looks the form pick on his Triumph second but the likes of Nurburgring and Kalif Du Berlais are potential flies in the ointment. You couldn’t fully discount Intellotto either but with just two places on offer, we’ll sit this race out. No bet.

2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: No Bet

2.55 – William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1)

We have already posted a stats based preview for the Bowl. You can check that out here. That pinpointed Ahoy Senor, Gentlemansgame and Gerri Colombe as the most likely to finish in the first three and we recommended a bet on Mouse Morris’ charge at 25/1.

Corbetts Cross is clearly a horse on the up but this is a tougher race than the marathon he won at Cheltenham last time. Shishkin was good at Newbury last time out and he swerved Cheltenham but are Nicky Henderson’s horses over the virus that hit the stable?

Thunder Rock also skipped Cheltenham and he won well at Kelso in a listed chase last time out. That was on good to soft though and his form on that type of ground is streets ahead of anything he’s done in more testing conditions.

Ahoy A Decent Price

There could be value in Ahoy Senor’s odds of 12/1. He comes alive at this track and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back from his below par effort in the Ryanair. His last good run came when chasing home Shishkin in this race last year but the vast majority of his best form is on good to soft.

We have already backed Gentlemansgame at 25/1 and I am happy to stick rather than twist. He should have learned a lot from his first try in Grade 1 company in the Gold Cup and he might find things easier in this smaller field. If Darragh O’Keefe can get the grey son of Gentlewave jumping, hopefully he can sneak into the first three.

2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Already advised – Gentlemansgame e/w @ 25/1 (3 places)

3.30 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)

20f is the trip for this Grade 1 and a field of eight will go to post. Langer Dan begins his campaign to get handicapped for next year’s Coral Cup and he should get a couple of pounds back as he may not appreciate this ground.

Bob Olinger and Impaire Et Passe spearhead the market. I’ve never been a big Bob Olinger afficionado but he has undeniably been running well this season. He got to within 5l of State Man over 16f last time in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown and he’s won his last two outings at 20f on heavy ground quite easily. He enjoys a slog and he’ll get that here.

Scope To Improve

Impaire Et Passe is the narrow second fav at 15/8. He was back in third in the Irish Champion, 5L behind today’s fav. As a 6yo he probably has more scope to improve than Bob Olinger and he looked a proper horse in the making when hammering Gaelic Warrior at Cheltenham in the Ballymore last year. Stepping back up to 20f is going to really suit him and he’d be my pick of the top two in the betting.

Is there an e/w angle here? Quite a few of these won’t like the ground but Beacon Edge doesn’t mind it. He ran ok in the Coral Cup behind Langer Dan but the run that makes him of interest here (in terms of finishing third) was his penultimate outing in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan (21f hvy).

Boyne Hurdle Second

He ran really well that day to finish second, 3L behind the promising winner Hiddenvalley Lake. At Leopardstown in December he finished fourth, 13L behind Irish Point in a G1 (23f hvy). He was only 2L behind Coral Cup runner up Ballyadam and he was 7L in front of Home By The Lee.

Another cause for optimism is the fact that Jack Kennedy is on board. He has only ridden this lad twice, winning once and finishing second in that Boyne Hurdle. Beacon Edge has career form figures of 212P242 when going left handed on heavy ground, hopefully it keeps raining for him on Merseyside. At odds of 66/1, a small e/w interest is advised.

2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Beacon Edge e/w @ 66/1

4.05 – Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2)

I broke the habit of a lifetime and had a bet in this last year and guess what? It ran a stinker. Lesson learned. No bet.

2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: No Bet

4.40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier)

Dancing On My Own won this last year off 144. Off 12lbs higher on this bad ground, he could struggle to repeat the dose.

One Irish raider that won’t mind the ground is Bythesametoken. Ross O’Sullivan trains this son of Fame And Glory and he’ll be ridden by Robbie Dunne. He has a fine record when riding for this yard in the UK, winning once and finishing in the top four three times from five rides. He’s also hit the frame in three of his four rides for O’Sullivan in Ireland.

His last outing at Naas off 124 looked like a quiet run. Raced wide, switched and only beat 3.25L. He’s had a nice break since then and he’s finished second and third on his last two runs after similar absences.

He ran ok off today’s mark of 130 when beaten 15l into second at Haydock in December (16f hvy) by the 110 rated Netywell, to whom he was conceding 23lbs. That horse went on to win his next two starts and he is now rated 131 so in hindsight, it was an excellent effort by Bythesametoken. With the size of the pot on offer here he should be trying his best and with trip and ground to suit, he is the e/w selection at odds of 18/1.

2024 Aintree Festival Thursday Tip: Bythesametoken e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NAP

-DaveStevos