2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Preview

It was a mixed bag for us at the Breeders Cup last weekend. Arizona Blaze, Vodka With A Twist and our NAP Shahryar all got the place money but we didn’t manage to find a winner. We go again this weekend, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday preview and tips below.

1.25 Doncaster – Wentworth Stakes (Listed)

Just the eleven live races on ITV this Saturday. Nothing appeals in the opening five runner handicap case at Wincanton so we’ll leave that race well alone. Three of the live races are on the flat at Doncaster and the first one is this 6f listed heat.

The ground is currently soft at Donny and with no rain forecast, it won’t be any worse than that. It might dry out to good to soft but there should be juice in the ground whatever happens. Ed Walker fires three bullets and on ratings, Ten Bob Tony looks the most likely of his trio.

Already placed in Group 2 company in Germany and in a Group 3 in France, odds of 12/1 look pretty generous about the joint top rated horse in this race. However, all that form has come at 7f and 8f and I am not too sure this trip will suit him, especially after he seemingly got outpaced over further at Newmarket last time.

Thunder To Rumble

The one that makes most appeal at a working man’s price is the Irish raider, Thunderbear. This horse is effective at 5f and 6f and he enjoys a cut in the ground. The 4yo son of Kodi Bear was last sighted chasing home My Mate Alfie in a Listed heat at Ayr and I think that horse will be winning in Group 1 company next year. Thunderbear was only 0.75l behind him and while he was getting 5lb, it was still a fine effort.

Jack Davison’s charge has already won a Group 3, on heavy ground over 5f at Newmarket in September 2023. Two of his four wins have come at 6f and two of his wins have come in the UK, so he travels well. Rossa Ryan is an eye-catching jockey booking and odds of 16/1 are worth taking.   

2024 Doncaster Saturday Tip: Thunderbear e/w @ 16/1 NB

1.30 Aintree – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

It has been a dry week at Aintree but they’ve been watering so there should be a little bit of give in the ground. A field of nine will go to post for this 24.5f Pertemps Qualifier and the one I’ll take a chance on at a decent price is the Mark Walford trained Willaston.

This four time winner over hurdles is back down to his last winning mark of 126. That win came over this trip in a valuable handicap at Haydock in May 2023 and he had Bold Endeavour 2.25l behind. He was getting 14lb from that rival that day, he gets 15lb from him here.

Good ground suits this horse well. It was good to soft for his seasonal reappearance three weeks ago and he shaped nicely enough over 20f at Uttoxeter, beaten 6.75l into third. He should strip fitter with that under his belt and he now steps back up to his optimum trip.

After he won that nice pot at Haydock, connections suggested he might be a Pertemps horse so hopefully, he’ll be doing his best to qualify here. He was bigger yesterday but at odds of 12/1, Willaston is still worth backing e/w.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: Willaston e/w @ 12/1 NAP

1.45 Wincanton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

The horse I like here in this mares’ handicap hurdle is Greyval. Trained by Fergal O’Brien, this 5yo daughter of The Grey Gatsby is stepping markedly up in trip. She has won four races in total, two on the flat at 1m4f when trained in France and two over hurdles at 16/16.5f for her current yard.

This mare is versatile as far as the ground is concerned so it won’t matter what the weather does, although she is probably at her best on good ground and the ground is currently good at Wincanton. She has yet to win a handicap over timber, her wins coming in a 4yo Listed race at Donny and a mares’ hurdle at Huntingdon.

She has had a few goes in handicaps now and she has been improving gradually. Greyval wasn’t beaten far in April/May at Stratford and in both of those races, she shaped like a greater test of stamina might suit.

It was a similar story on her return at Market Rasen in September but she needs to bounce back from a below par effort when a beaten fav on heavy at Stratford on her latest start in October. Perhaps the bottomless ground wasn’t ideal and I am hoping the return to a sounder surface and this longer trip sparks a revival. At odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest on Greyval is advised.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: Greyval e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

2.05 Aintree – Boylesports Handicap Chase (Class 2)

This is not a race that makes much appeal as a betting heat. I was half tempted by Magistrato at 20/1 but he might just find this too tough up in grade. El Borracho is well handicapped on old form but he ran very poorly last time at Kelso. I think we’ll have to swerve this contest. No bet.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: No Bet

2.23 Wincanton – Boodles Novice Chase (Grade 2)

In what may be a recurring theme in the UK this season, it’s a pitiful turnout for this 75k Grade 2 Novices’ Chase. Just five will run and Glynn is the only one available at double figure odds. He is probably a shade big given that a couple of his rivals lack a run but Soul Icon is a horse I really like and I hope he can win for Keiran Burke and Tom Bellamy. He’s just 4/1, however, so we’ll also give this race a wide berth. No bet.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: No Bet

2.40 Aintree – Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class 2)

We have backed Percussion for this race before but unfortunately, the cat is out of the bag regarding his liking for this C&D and the son of Malinas is just 7/1. He is on a competitive mark and he ought to run well again. Frero Banbou has dropped to a dangerous mark but he would probably like softer ground and the drop back to this 2m5f trip has to rate a worry for the hat-trick seeking Gaboriot.

I have been hmming and hawing all week over whether to put this horse up. The fact that it hasn’t rained at all is a bit of a concern but it seems like there will be plenty of watering done and in the hope that it is genuinely good to soft ground, I am going to take a chance on backing Richmond Lake.

Boxes Ticked

This horse ticks a number of boxes for this race. Firstly, he has experience over the fences. He finished tenth of 24 in the Topham back in April and while his jumping wasn’t perfect, he got around and completed. Secondly, he may lack a recent run but he has a fine record when fresh. He won on his seasonal reappearance last year off 137 and then followed up at this track off 142 (both on heavy ground) and he is running off that latter mark here today. He also won on his reappearance in 2021.

What was putting me off was the prospect of good ground as Richmond Lake’s two wins last year came on heavy. However, he has form figures of 21 on good to soft ground over fences and the win came off 140 in a valuable handicap at Ayr over 20.5f. Hopefully they put half the River Mersey on the track tonight and there is a bit of cut in the ground on Saturday. If there is, hopefully Richmond Lake can outrun his odds of 22/1.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: Richmond Lake e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)

2.55 Wincanton – Elite Hurdle (Grade 2)

Elite by name, not very elite by nature. A piss poor turnout for this Grade 2 with the defection of Forever William reducing the field to three. Rubaud is odds on but he is not exactly bulletproof. Aspire Tower and Brentford Hope are no mugs and the De Bromhead horse probably represents a bit of value at 5/1 but I am happy to just sit back and watch this one. No bet.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: No bet

3.10 Doncaster – Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)

We just missed out on a nice touch at 33/1 with Treasure at Newmarket. Ralph Beckett has wasted no time in switching back to stakes company and her mission will be to finish in the first three here and pick up some precious black type. She is more than capable of doing that in this company, soft ground is fine and she should go well. However, she is not 33/1 this time, unfortunately.

The question here is, can any of the other fillies that are switching from handicaps make an impact in Listed company? Loughville may be up to the task but I think Ciara Pearl is unexposed at 1m2f on soft ground and though she only won off 81 at Newbury (10f, hvy), the front two pulled 10 lengths clear and I think she is well worth a go at this level.

By Twilight Son, this 4yo has had just three runs on softer than good. She has returned form figures of 131 and the third came at Leicester where her stamina probably just gave way on the uphill finish. This flatter track should suit her well and Saffie Osborne, who won on her last time, keeps the faith.

She’ll probably need one or two of the top four in the betting to flounder but with four places on offer, a chance is taken on Ciara Pearl at odds of 18/1.

2024 Doncaster Saturday Tip: Ciara Pearl e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.30 Wincanton – Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier)

Finding one that might go well at a price in this isn’t easy. The Anthony Honeyball pair would usually pique my interest but they ran in this last year on their seasonal comebacks and didn’t make an impact. The Big Breakaway also lacks a run and he has never won going right handed. Al Dancer looks to be on a tough mark and he’s another one that is making his seasonal reappearance.

The only other one in here at double figure odds is Riskintheground. He has progressed well during a summer campaign, winning four of his seven starts. His mark has risen from 112 to 134 but he proved last time at Cheltenham that he was still capable of being competitive off his current rating.

He was beaten just 2.75l into third in that 20.5f handicap chase, not quite getting home. That has been the case in two of his previous three tries at further than 21f but he did manage to finish a 2.5l third over 24f at Kempton in October 2023 so there is hope that he might see out this trip on this flat track now that he is a year older and stronger.

Back in July he ran a creditable race in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, finishing fifth off 127. He’s 7lb higher now but we know he can place off his current mark, he is race fit, he has won going right handed and he likes flat tracks. If he can see out this trip, hopefully Riskintheground will sneak into the places at odds of 14/1.

2024 Aintree & Wincanton Saturday Tip: Riskintheground e/w @ 14/1

3.45 Doncaster – November Handicap (Class 2)

I’ve just about had it with big field staying flat handicaps after the Melbourne Cup. However, we have done alright in this race over the years so we live in hope. Last year we backed Onesmoothoperator who won for us at 22/1 (NAP) and in 2020 we should have had a 28/1 winner with Rhythmic Intent but he was given far too much to do.

This year, I am going to take a chance with Austrian Theory for Tim Easterby. Cam Hardie gets the leg up on this former Charlie Johnston trained son of Awtaad and he got off the mark for his current yard on his last start at Pontefract last month (10f, soft). That win came off 79 and he got a 5lb hike to 84 but he won off 94 and 91 for his old stable so he is still on a workable mark.

This will be this lad’s first try at beyond 10.5f but his half-brother Corsica stayed further than 12f and he shaped like the trip might be within his compass when staying on for fourth on soft ground over 10.5f at York on his penultimate start (4.5l behind Two Brothers). His only previous run at this track resulted in victory over 7f in a maiden in 2021 and he is relatively unexposed at middle distances on soft ground. At odds of 33/1, Austrian Theory is the e/w selection.

2024 Doncaster Saturday Tip: Austrian Theory e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos