2024 Australian GP Betting Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Australian GP Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Australian GP betting preview.
2024 Australian GP
Two races down, twenty two to go. It is going to be a long old season watching the Red Bulls getting 1-2 finishes.
The Track
The track, which was resurfaced during the pandemic, requires medium downforce levels, and does not stress the tyres too much. As a once a year circuit, track evolution is high.
The track has been reprofiled in recent years and it has changed its character. Cornering performance is now more important compared to traction and braking. It used to be a real point and squirt layout, which rewarded good traction and braking stability, but it has changed somewhat in that respect.
With cornering now more important, McLaren should improve compared to Jeddah, which exposed the car’s relatively high drag. We will also learn about how they are doing in slow corners, which was a big weakness last year.
DRS Zones
Albert Park has four DRS zones, none particularly long, and overtaking remains difficult, especially if the driver is not confident under braking. Pirelli are bringing tyres that are one step softer than last year, but the track surface is much more smooth and grippy since it was resurfaced, so the softer compounds should be fine.
There are fourteen corners and six are still very much brake, turn, accelerate, short duration corners. So, for the best lap time you still need decent braking and traction. The changes have made Albert Park a more flowing layout but has removed some of its character.
It is at the faster end of the spectrum and historically has been hard on cars. Fast, with walls close in places, means mistakes can be heavily punished. Part of the reason for the high attrition rates was that this was the traditional season opener. Cars arrived here not fully sorted, and reliability was not the best. Accidents are quite common which plays a part in the relatively high attrition rate.
Attrition Rate
The improved reliability of the cars these days means that the attrition rate has dropped, and the last three races here have all seen three DNFs. In the turbo hybrid era, the pole sitter has won four of the eight races, but no one has won from outside the top three on the grid.
Safety cars are common as, like all ‘street’ circuits, room off the race track is limited and it can take longer to clear debris and collect any crashed cars.
The race last year saw two red flags and ended in a total shambles. This venue has produced some chaotic races and there is a high degree of jeopardy.
2024 Australian GP: Team by Team
After two races, the pecking order is firming up, but Bahrain and particularly Jeddah, are not the greatest of form guides. Another race at another venue will firm things up further.
Red Bull
The RB20 is a considerable improvement on the all-conquering RB19. The rest of the field, barring Alpine, have built faster cars for 2024, but Red Bull have raised the bar even higher. Untouchable as it stands right now.
Verstappen’s record here is not great. He did win last year, his first Aussie GP win, and I think we can forget his struggles before that win.
Sergio Perez struggled with his braking here last year, failed to set a time in qualifying but climbed through the field and finished 5th. He was second in 2022 and he looks more comfortable in the RB20 than last year’s car. Qualifying remains his weakness, and with overtaking tricky here, that may be of concern.
Verstappen is going for his third win of 2024 and his tenth race win in a row. He is the 1.20 favourite to do so. Perez is the 8.00 second favourite (or 13.00 win only).
Ferrari
Six tenths better than 2023, but now further back from Red Bull. Clearly the second best car so they are racing for podiums and maybe a win if Red Bull ever have a problem, and they will at some point.
The car is said to be 0.2s – 0.3s off Red Bull in qualifying, and a bit more over a race distance. Team boss Fredric Vasseur says that the team are finally able to just concentrate on development of the new car, rather than fixing problems, which has been the case in recent years.
Solid Record
Albert Park has been a strong venue for Ferrari in the modern era, winning three of the last five Australian GP’s.
Charles Leclerc won the 2022 race and was fourth in 2019 (there was no race in 2020 or 2021) but was punted off by Lance Stroll last year. Carlos Sainz has picked up four top tens but has failed to score in the last three.
His participation must be in doubt following his appendectomy two weeks ago. Ollie Berman is on stand by and it would be interesting to see how he got on after having a F1 race under his belt. Sainz says that he is not 100% fit, but will take part in FP1 and FP2, before making a final decision as to whether to do qualifying and the race.
McLaren
They have made some progress but the car is not a good all-rounder. We learned a lot about the McLaren in Jeddah. In the fast, sweeping corners it was almost as quick as the Red Bull. On the straights it was slow. They might be the second best team, on a track that has lots of fast corners and only a few short straights.
The team did run with a bigger rear wing than the rest in Jeddah. That didn’t help with their top speeds and while it helped with their cornering pace, it is hard to be competitive while being slow on the straights.
A threat to Ferrari for second place? Probably not yet. The team admit that the front end ends an upgrade in order to address its weakness in long corners, and in slow ones.
Top 6 Target
Norris has finished top 6 here for the last two years, Piastri was eighth on his home debut last year. A double top 6 in not being unrealistic, but how the car goes in the six, slow, short duration corners will be crucial. The team say their biggest weakness is in long duration slow corners, and this track doesn’t really have any of those. The straights are not particularly long either.
I can see the car being good through the first and second sectors, but the third, with four slow corners, not so much. There is an upgrade in the pipeline to improve the cars aerodynamic sweet spot in corners, but it will not be ready for a few races yet.
Mercedes
The problem with having to start from scratch, as Mercedes have been forced to do following a poor initial ground effect car design, is that you are fixing teething troubles. Meanwhile, the other teams are making progress and improving performance.
It looks like the new Mercedes has vices. The lack of rear end stability in Jeddah will have been a huge set back. That was a feature of the binned design of 2022 and 2023. Already, the designers are going to have to figure out why the car is lacking consistent rear end grip.
Serious Issue
Toto Wolff says that the problem with the car is serious. It is not something that can be fixed by changing the set up. The car is seriously slow in high speed corners. Watching the McLaren pull away from the Mercedes around the high speed curves in Jeddah was telling.
This track shouldn’t expose Mercedes’ weakness as much as Jeddah did, but there are parts where they are going to be lacking competitiveness. It is a fast track and the high speeds will mean the car being pushed closer to the floor…and then the trouble starts.
Positives
On the positive side for Mercedes is that they have gone better here than just about anywhere in the ground effect era. They were third and fourth in 2022 and while Russell had a DNF last year (he qualified second), Lewis Hamilton finished second, from third on the grid. Australia is the land of the Kangaroo, so perhaps a bouncy car is quite appropriate.
Lewis Hamilton has had one win and five second places in the Turbo-Hybrid era, but he hasn’t dominated his teammates. Past form under the new regulations suggests Mercedes could be a surprise package, but they won’t match Red Bull, probably not Ferrari, and McLaren could be in the podium mix as well.
Aston Martin
In the top division but hard to place. Fifth best car? Maybe, but with Mercedes having problems, they might be able to step ahead with some upgrades. Alonso is getting the most out of the car, Lance Stroll not so much. His crash in Jeddah was down to him and he just isn’t quite good enough.
The car is still a bit slow in the straights and with Red Bull and Ferrari comfortably ahead, podiums are going to need some luck. The car is at its most competitive on low fuel. Quick in qualifying and towards the end of the race. Tyre degradation over the long runs is said to be a relative weakness.
Alonso was third here last year, with Stroll following him home in fourth. They did have the second best car at that stage, and that is not the case now.
Haas
Sixth in the Constructors’ title race thanks to a cunningly conceived strategy in Jeddah. Their opponents were complaining of ‘un-sportsman like behaviour’. Magnussen, his race ruined by two 10 second penalties, was able to back up the field to the extent that Hulkenberg had a big enough gap to protect and stay in tenth place.
For one of the ‘second division’ teams to score a point was a result, but the truth is that it needed Stroll to crash out. There is a significant gap between the top five and the bottom five. Haas must be near the top of that second division. The car has good straight line performance which makes it hard to pass, even for the top cars.
Good Memories For KMAG
Haas have enjoyed some success here in the past, but a lot of that was down to them having better reliability in high attrition races. Hulkenberg was seventh last year and that was his fifth seventh place in Melbourne in the last seven races here. Magnussen was second in his F1 debut race here, and he was sixth here in 2019.
This has been a good track for Haas. They were sixth in 2016, had a third row on the grid in 2017, qualified fifth and sixth in 2018 (both retired after losing a wheel after a pit stop). Magnussen was sixth in 2019 (both cars made Q3 comfortably), and Hulkenberg was seventh last year.
In a race that should see some attrition, Haas could well be on the scoreboard once again. They know what is required here.
Williams
It is an OK car in Albon’s hands. Nothing special. Sargeant continues to be a waste of space. Albon was tenth in 2022, but it will be hard for the second division teams to score unless we see some attrition, and Haas look to have the better car at this point.
Williams had to spend heavy to upgrade their facilities, everything was late as a result, and they now don’t have a lot of budget left for developments. The necessary changes to the way the team builds its cars, basically trying to overcome years of underinvestment, is a process that will take three years to bear fruit.
Visa RB
Any fears that this car was going to be a RB19 have proved well wide of the mark. One lap pace is OK, but they are not able to compete with the top five and they look slower than Haas and Albon.
Ricciardo has been very poor and his days in F1 are surely numbered. A lot will be expected of Ricciardo on home turf, but when you are struggling for form, a home race is not what you need.
So far in 2024, Visa RB have finished thirteenth, fourteenth, fifteenth and sixteenth. That is a fair reflection of their potential.
Stake F1
Slow is the easiest description. The wheels coming off is not what you want in a car, but they do have to in a pitstop, and this car doesn’t seem to like having the wheels taken off. That is two consecutive races where one of their cars has suffered with a stuck wheel nut.
There is little positive to be said for this car. It is easy to spot might be one. That bright green thing near the back of the field. I believe the team will be called Kick F1 for this race. That may be the most interesting thing about them this weekend.
Alpine
Just dreadful. There is no one weakness. The power unit is uncompetitive, the car is overweight, it lacks downforce, and crucially for this track, it lacks traction.
Weather Forecast
Early Autum in Australia and the weekend’s weather looks to be fine. Temperatures around 21 degrees, partly cloudy but with little chance of any rain. McLaren may have wanted it warmer, but the weather should not be a big issue.
Summary
It is already clear that while Ferrari in particular have made good progress over the winter, Red Bull have improved even more. Could anything change in Melbourne?
In terms of winning the race, no. It would take a rare mechanical failure or an even rarer accident to stop Verstappen. What may be more difficult is getting their third 1-2 finish of the season.
Perez is still lacking in terms of qualifying performance. He qualified 5th in Bahrain and 3rd in Jeddah. The Albert Park circuit is not an easy place to overtake and if he was to have to start from the third row, it may be difficult to make second place, even in a Red Bull.
Ferrari In The Podium Mix
Ferrari have a good record here and this year’s car has already scored two podiums. They will be in the mix for another, but will they have both race drivers fit and ready?
Alex Albon returned to the cockpit a week after his appendectomy two years ago, but later admitted that he wasn’t fully recovered until the end of the season. We have to think that Leclerc will be Ferrari’s main man this weekend. Olly Bearman did a fine job in Jeddah but the fact is that he finished seventh in the second best car. An unfit Sainz or a stand in reserve driver is not ideal.
That is actually a positive for Perez’ chances of a podium finish. If Perez has a bad qualifying, Leclerc might just be able to finish ahead of him.
McLaren & Mercedes
The two teams that are head scratchers are McLaren and Mercedes.
How the McLaren will suit the nature of the track is hard to tell. The lack of any really long straights is a plus, but a lack of many fast corners is not. Their slow corner performance is another worry.
Mercedes have a problem with the car bottoming out and starting the dreaded porpoising. However, they have had that problem for the last two years and they have still been competitive at Albert Park.
2024 Australian GP: Ante Post Selections
Charles Leclerc has made a solid start to the season. He is leading the ‘without Red Bull’ championship, ten points clear of George Russell.
Leclerc has qualified on the front row for the first two races of the season and getting as close to the front as possible offers up a much better chance of getting through the tricky first few corners intact. Charles says that Albert Park is one of his favourite circuits and that his 2022 was perhaps his best ever race.
He is Ferrari’s leading contender this weekend and looks a good bet to get his second podium of the season.
2024 Australian GP Tip: 2 points Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes, BET365
George Russell is ten points ahead of the departing Lewis Hamilton after the first two races. He has outqualified his teammate twice and he just sounds more positive than Hamilton.
Lewis knew very early on that this car wasn’t the answer to all of Mercedes woes. It was going to be a long season of not winning anything again. He is leaving because he reckons Ferrari have the better prospect of winning and no doubt he is counting down the races to the 2025 season. Russell is establishing himself as the new number 1 at Mercedes.
Russell led this race last year after getting the jump on Verstappen, but his power unit suffered a rare failure and he had to retire. He beat Hamilton to 3rd place here in 2024 and he is worth backing to get the better of his teammate again.
2024 Australian GP Tip: 1 point George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes
Haas have been a revelation so far in 2024, and deserve their sixth place, albeit with just a single point. They have addressed the car’s weaknesses of 2023 and are now firmly in the midfield.
Traditionally, Haas have gone well at Albert Park. They haven’t always got the results they deserved but the potential has usually been there. Magnussen and Hulkenberg both have positive mental associations with the circuit, both are perfectly capable of scoring points, and the team do know how to set the car up for this track.
They are a decent price to be the second division winners.
2024 Australian GP Tip: 1 point Haas to be the winning car without the Big Five @ 3.25 with Livescorebet
The final ante-post bet for this weekend is on the number of classified finishers. In the turbo hybrid era the average number of cars not classified is 4.75. I do not expect it to be that high, but it has never been less than 3.0.
Last year’s late race chaos saw a total of eight cars not taking the chequered flag, but five were classified as they had completed 90% of the race distance when they crashed out. Accidents play a big part in the retirement rate at Albert Park.
