2024 Austrian GP Raceday Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Austrian GP Raceday preview. Our outright selection Lando Norris starts from second on the grid, hopefully Max Verstappen has an off day.

2024 Austrian GP Raceday Preview

Unfortunately for our 3 point Norris to win bet, Max Verstappen looks to have this one sewn up. There was nothing between the Red Bull and McLaren in the sprint race phase at the weekend, but since the parc ferme was reopened for the Grand Prix phase, Red Bull have sprinkled their magic dust over the car and it has picked up several tenths of pace.

To be faster by 0.40s around this short lap is huge. The last time we saw that kind of gap here was back in 2016 with Lewis Hamilton over 0.5s clear of Rosberg. He went on to win by just over 5 seconds. He very nearly lost the race to Rosberg. It was Rosberg who was leading on the last lap but the two collided at turn 3, breaking Rosberg’s front wing and Hamilton was able to take the lead and win the race.

Safety Car

Even with a dominant car, an ill-timed safety car (50% chance) can turn things upside down and this is a race where we have seen quite a bit of drama at times.

Norris doesn’t seem to have the pace to match Verstappen. He did in the first part of the weekend but lost his chance to win the sprint with his open door policy at turn four. It would seem his hopes, and ours, depend on luck, or perhaps tyre wear becoming a big issue. The McLaren is able to get more life out of the tyres late in the stints, but Norris needs to be close for that to be of any use.

Norris is over a tenth clear of Russell and the Mercedes race looks to be with Ferrari. Russell was just 0.011 ahead of Carlos Sainz, Hamilton 0.141 ahead of Leclerc.

Leclerc Out Of Sorts

Leclerc messed up his final flying lap in Q3 and he has looked out of sorts all weekend. Sainz has been steady so far, never worse than fifth. For Mercedes, Russell has been faster than Hamilton in all but the FP1 session. It is Russell who looks quite happy, while Hamilton looks like someone has stolen his bun…again. We are on Russell to beat Hamilton, so hopefully that stays the same today.

Starting in seventh is the out of place Oscar Piastri. We had a small e/w bet on him for qualifying. He ended his session in third, but then had his last flying lap deleted for exceeding track limits. McLaren did appeal the decision but that was rejected. It was very marginal. Up to that point Piastri had been second or third in every session and having a very good weekend.

Overtaking Possible

The McLaren is faster than the Ferrari and Mercedes, it is just a matter of whether he can make that pace advantage work and make his way up to the podium. Overtaking is possible and if it was Norris in the same position, I would say he would be a banker to make third place, but will Piastri be able to be fast and manage his tyres?

Having three DRS zones will help him make up ground. Ladbrokes have him in a group with the two Mercs and Sainz and that will be a great battle. I’ll take the Aussie in the faster car to come out on top.

2024 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to win Group 1 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

Sergio Perez starts in eighth place, but he is not out of place. The Red Bull number two is driving poorly, and he has not been better than seventh in any session.

Staring ninth and twelfth are the two Haas’ drivers. Hulkenberg had been struggling in the sprint phase of the weekend, but obviously the team changed his setup once they came out of parc ferme.

Magnussen had been well ahead of Hulkenberg up to that point. Will Haas be able to convert two good starting positions into points? In the last five races, Hulkenberg has had one DNF and four eleventh place finishes. Ninth is his joint best qualifying session of the season.

He did the same in China and Miami, finishing tenth and eleventh respectively. There isn’t anyone massively faster behind him. The two Alpines are maybe a little faster. Ocon starts tenth and Gasly thirteenth. They dropped back in the sprint race and maybe they are not quite on it on this track.

Hulkenberg is 1.60 to finish in the points, but he is 2.75 in Ladbrokes Group 2. He is in with the two Alpines, Ricciardo and Magnussen. That looks a better bet than just going for a points finish.

2024 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Hulkenberg to win Group 2 with Ladbrokes @ 2.75

The two Aston Martin drivers were expecting to struggle this weekend and they have done just that. Stroll, with a new long term contract in his pocket (I wonder why?) had been going quite well up to yesterday’s qualifying session and finished the sprint race in tenth place.

However, whatever changes they made to the car after the sprint race seem to have had a detrimental effect. Stroll only qualified seventeenth, Alonso fifteenth. I was considering a bet on Stroll to beat Alonso as he had been faster up until the GP qualifying, but that drop in pace from the sprint to qualifying is off putting.

Visa RB Regressing

Visa RB went from regular points scorers to lower midfielders after a big upgrade in Spain. Their pace hasn’t been great here either.

Ricciardo manged a creditable eleventh in qualifying yesterday, but Tsunoda qualified fourteenth in both qualifying sessions. He ended the sprint race in thirteenth, and both cars made up one place in the sprint. The changes made after the sprint have made a positive difference, but Tsunoda admitted that his driving was poor in qualifying yesterday.

Riccardo doesn’t have a great raceday record in 2024. He struggles to make up places on his grid position. He has only had four qualifying positions of twelfth or better and in those four he DNF’d in two and dropped four places in one and three in the other.

The Aussie may have over performed yesterday, and on this very short lap you can do that. Just picking up a tenth is gold. He is matched with Gasly with Hills, Unibet and Ladbrokes and Ladbrokes offer the best odds.

2024 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Gasly to beat Ricciardo @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

We had a nice winning margin bet for the sprint shootout and I have had a look at the winning margins in the twelve races here since 2014.

Three have been over 10 seconds, two between 5 and 10 seconds and seven under five seconds. In 2015, Hamilton crossed the line 3.8 seconds behind the winner, but he then had a 5 second penalty applied for an in-race infringement, so you can take that two ways, but I’m counting it as an under as it is relatively unusual to have that situation.

The average winning margin in 2024 is 8.59 seconds, but three of the last four have been under 5 seconds, the three races in which Norris finished second. I can see that being the case once more. Norris tends to finish fast, helped by the car’s low tyre degradation.

2024 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point winning margin to be under 5 seconds @ 3.25 with Boylesports, Skybet, Betfair, Ladbrokes

Of the last seven races here, including the Styrian GPs, Verstappen has set the fastest lap four times, including for the last three years. All have been set by a car starting in the top three.

Verstappen’s pace yesterday was impressive and on their home turf, Red Bull will want to get the holy grail of pole, race win and fastest lap. Verstappen is just 2.40 to make it four in a row, which is a bit short for me in that particular market.

In the last five races in 2024, three fastest laps have been set by a Mercedes, and two by a McLaren. Mercedes haven’t quite looked like they have the pace here, Norris makes some appeal at 4.00, but just not enough.

-JamesPunt