2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Preview
It was a mixed bag on Champions Weekend in Ireland. Saturday was a write off but at least we managed to land three places on Sunday, including with our NAP and NB. We go again on Saturday, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday tips are below.
1.15 Ayr – LiveScore Handicap (Class 2)
One horse at big odds that looks like he may have been targeted at this race is Diamondonthehill. Trained by Michael Dods, this five time winner comes into this on the back of two inauspicious runs at Haydock and Thirsk. His mark has dropped from 90 to 87 after those two efforts so he is only 2lb higher than when dead heating with Yorkshire at Thirsk in May.
His next start after that win came off 87 over today’s C&D. David Nolan gave him an extremely ‘considerate’ ride and he ran on very strongly under hands and heels to finish third, just 2.75l behind the winner Regheeb.
That wasn’t his first good run at this track. At the 2021 Western Meeting, he ran a blinder as a 3yo against older horses to finish fourth in a handicap on the Thursday. Paul Mulrennan, who was on board for his last win, rides and hopefully he rides this lad a bit more vigorously than David Nolan did when he last ran here. Michael Dods won this in 2010 with Tiger Reigns from stall 1, hopefully Diamondonthehill can repeat the trick at 25/1.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Diamondonthehill e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
1.30 Newbury – World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
I was amazed to see Annaf in this, surely he is best over 6f/7f these days and the only thing I can think of is that they think he needs another sharpener before a possible tilt at the Champions Sprint at Ascot. He could be worth taking on.
I was tempted by Significantly but I have a feeling his main aim is going to be the 50k 6f handicap at York in which he was beaten 1.75l by Montassib last October. Seven Questions could go well in first time blinkers for George Scott.
Group 3 Winner
He has already won at this level, beating Vadream in a Newmarket Group 3 back in May. He followed that up with a creditable third at Haydock in a G2 behind Kerdos and while he disappointed back in big field handicaps at Ascot and Goodwood the last twice, he at least had an excuse on his latest run as his saddle slipped.
There’s a bit of rain forecast at Newbury and that won’t inconvenience this horse. He handles cut and it was heavy when he was narrowly beaten into third in the G2 Mill Reef here a year ago. Darragh Keenan is 3/4 on this horse and he gets back into the plate on Saturday. If this horse is going to bounce back, everything looks right for him here so at odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Seven Questions e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
1.50 Ayr – Doonside Cup (Listed)
Nothing makes any appeal at a big price in this Listed heat. It’s a busy day and there’s hopefully better opportunities elsewhere. No bet.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.05 Newbury – Autumn Cup Handicap (Class 2)
I’ll probably live to regret this decision but at 50/1, I can’t resist having a small e/w interest on Lucander in this valuable 13.5f handicap. I really fancied him to run a big race in the Copper Horse handicap at Royal Ascot earlier this season. Unfortunately, he was slow from the gates and never got involved but he was just 8l behind the winner Belloccio and only 5.5l off a place.
He got a pound back from the handicapper for that run and is now rated 99. Less than a year ago this horse beat Isle Of Jura off level weights in a Bahrain Handicap over 10f and that horse is now rated 119. The winner reversed that form over 10f, 11f and 12f on their next three meetings but Lucander wasn’t far behind him and in March, he was only beaten 4.5l over 12f by him.
Soft ground isn’t a concern for this horse and Charlie Bishop has ridden him before. Bishop has a decent 50% frame hitting strike rate when riding for George Baker, 5/32 with another 11 top 4 finishes. Lucander has gone well fresh before, if he is on a going day he is no 50/1 shot and at the prices, he is worth throwing a few pennies at each way.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Lucander e/w @ 50/1 (4 places)
2.25 Ayr – Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2)
With the front runners Paws For Thought and Bergerac drawn in 1 and 2, a low draw may be an advantage in this big field sprint. We backed Rock Opera in the Great St Wilfrid on his last start and he could never get involved after missing the break. He does have a habit of doing that, so there are risks attached to him, but what do you expect with a 20/1 shot!
If he does get away better today, I have no doubt he is capable of winning off 81. He was only narrowly denied for a big prize at York off 80 for Andrew Mullen back in July and he was given far too much to do when flying home for fourth off 81 at Windsor a couple of weeks later.
He admittedly blotted his copybook at Ripon but I am willing to forgive him that and I am hoping the front runners go lickety split from the outset here and set it up for the closers. The drying ground will suit, Mullen is back on board so at odds of 20/1, Rock Opera is the e/w selection.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Rock Opera e/w 20/1 (6 places) nb
2.40 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)
Mustazeed caught my eye in this but he has been declared to run on Friday so he is unlikely to take his chance. I am going to sit this one out, no bet.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.00 Ayr – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3)
We backed Barefoot Angel to win this a couple of years ago. Richard Fahey has a decent record in the race but the fact Oisin Orr has gone to Newbury instead of riding at this meeting has put me off both his runners in this year’s renewal.
The one I am going to take a chance on at a working man’s price is the Raphael Freire trained Li Ban. Owned by AMO, this daughter of Prince Of Lir has a bit to find on the figures with a rating of 88. However, she caught the eye in a Group 3 at Kempton last time out, her first try in stakes company.
Prior to that run, she had usually been ridden forward in her races. This time, Kieran Shoemark anchored her out the back and she seemed to enjoy the change of tactics. Yes, she only finished fifth but she made up a heap of ground in the last furlong and she was just 2.75l behind the winner and 2l off a place.
I’d imagine the plan is to try and nick some black type with her and she has a better chance of achieving that aim if she is ridden more patiently. AMO’s retained pilot David Egan is back on board today and hopefully, he gets a good pace to aim at. If he does, hopefully Li Ban can stay on late for the place money at odds of 20/1.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Li Ban e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
3.15 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
It is a bit concerning that Star Anthem hasn’t been seen since running a cracker in the Coventry but odds of 33/1 look huge about Clive Cox’s son of Starspangledbanner. He got outpaced on ground plenty quick for him at Ascot but he finished off his race really well from an unpromising position and finished just 2l behind the winner.
His previous two runs came on good to soft ground and he hosed up at Bath in a maiden on his second start. There’s rain in the air at Newbury so he should get a bit of cut in the ground and he has experience of this track after finishing a neck second on his debut on easy ground back in April.
Now, as I mentioned earlier, he hasn’t been seen for 95 days so I am guessing he either had a growth spurt or maybe he was a bit sore after running on firm ground for the first time at Ascot. Either way, Cox is sure to have him as fit as he can for this heat and he won this in 2021 and 2016 so he knows what type of horse you need. Maybe he’ll be rusty and he’ll need the run, but if he isn’t he has shown more than enough ability to warrant an e/w interest at odds of 33/1.
2024 Ayr & Newbury Saturday Tip: Star Anthem e/w @ 33/1
3.35 Ayr – Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage)
Off a mark of 107 I can’t get away from an old friend of the blog in this year’s Ayr Gold Cup. Commanche Falls has to carry top weight but he has some serious form in the book this season and in my opinion, he is more than capable of running to 114/115 if he is at his best.
Back in June he ran in a Listed heat at the Curragh. He finished 1.5l behind My Mate Alfie, to whom he was conceding 12lbs. He won the Bold Lad on Irish Champions weekend at the Curragh on Sunday easily off a mark of 107. On his previous start to that he got to within 2.75l of Believing, to whom he was giving 8lbs. She has placed in G1s the last twice and is rated 112.
On his last handicap start off this mark, he ran a huge race at York where he met traffic problems and was only beaten 1.25l for the win in third. He was beaten a length in this race off 110 in 2022 and he has won over C&D. Stall 12 is fine and granted luck in running, Commanche Falls looks a cracking e/w bet at odds of 33/1.
