2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Preview
We are quids in already thanks to Leclerc, Colapinto and Perez doing the business in qualifying. The bookies are running for cover and James Punt is hoping to cause them even more misery today. Check out his 2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday update and tips below.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday
We got off to a good start in Baku. Charles Leclerc got the pole position yesterday to land our ante post bet, and both Colapinto and Perez beat their teammates to land a couple of big price match bets.
We are on Leclerc to win the race, each way, at 6.00 and he is now the 1.91 favourite. We have also backed George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton and he outqualified his teammate yesterday. That bet now looks a lot better after the news that Hamilton has taken a new engine and changed his suspension. That means he must start from the pit lane, with Russell starting fifth.
Our final ante post bet is for Alex Albon to finish in the points. He starts from ninth and is now a 1.62 shot to do so.
All very nice, but we now go into a race that has a history of being a bit chaotic. The pole sitter has only won two of the seven races here for a start, and with crashes and safety cars all part of the package here, anything could happen. We could be sitting on nothing come the end of the race, wondering now did that happen. Hopefully we can have a nice, boring, processional race.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday: Team-by-Team
Ferrari
It looked like the track would suit them, and so it has. Leclerc had a crash in FP1, but otherwise has been up at the sharp end all weekend. Carlos Sainz doesn’t care much for this circuit but even he made third place on the grid.
The team are much better operationally than has been the case for many years and it is just in the lap of the gods now. They have the best car, their race pace was OK on Friday and as the car looks after its tyres, they have every chance to win, if circumstances do not go against them
McLaren
Circumstance did not go McLaren’s way yesterday when an unnecessary yellow flag was briefly thrown in Q1, causing Norris to lift and be eliminated. He now starts from fifteenth place. He has a fast car, not the fastest this weekend, but he should still be able to score a point or two.
I imagine he will plan for a long first stint, hope to be able to take advantage of a safety car and make up as many places as possible. Norris was very down in the dumps after qualifying, saying that it is so hard to overtake here etc, etc. He needs a slap and to be told that if he doesn’t score points, he is a fanny.
Piastri will not be burdened by team orders this weekend and he is free to max out his potential. He starts second and I would be happy if that is where he finished. McLaren will now have one eye on the gap to Red Bull, but the other on Ferrari closing in on them from behind.
Making snap strategy decisions has been a weakness for McLaren this season, and this race can be a real test for the strategists. That may not bode well for them today.
Red Bull
It looked like the Bulls were back on Friday, the nature of the track sparing their blushes. However, set up changes going into qualifying pushed Verstappen’s car into the uncomfortable zone and he starts sixth, with Perez in fourth.
The Mexican is just a better driver around this track and Verstappen doesn’t go well here. His job is to try and make up some places and extend his World Championship lead over Norris. He may struggle to make much progress as the car was running with more downforce. That means he will be slower down the long finish straight, and that is where the bulk of the overtaking is done.
The reason given for running with more downforce was to protect the tyres. However, this is a low tyre degradation track and it is a strange choice, unless they have a serious problem. Verstappen hates understeer and whacking on a bigger rear wing to get the back end glued to the road means the front end gets a bit light and understeery. He will need luck if he is to win and Red Bull’s best hope is Perez.
Aston Martin
Alonso starts an unlikely eighth but just staying there will be a challenge. The two Williams behind him look potentially faster and the Astons have struggled to make much impression in the races this season. Stroll starts back in thirteenth and with a good start he could have a claim for a points finish, with a bit of luck.
Williams
Why, oh why did they not sack Sargeant sooner? Yes, Colapinto has got the upgraded Williams at his disposal and yes, he did stuff it in the wall on Friday, but he has made up for that by qualifying ninth and now starts eighth on just his second start in F1, and on a track which was totally new to him. He just needs to keep his head down, not crash, and bring it home in the points.
Albon starts from ninth after a bizarre incident which saw him leave the pits in Q3 with an enormous cooling unit still attached to his car. He did manage to shift it, but lost so much time, he couldn’t get a final run in. Which was bad news for him, but ensured our bet on Colapinto to outqualify him was a winner. A double points finish is up for grabs and their mission is just to not screw up and hope for the best.
Haas
Oliver Bearman is the leading Haas driver. The stand in for Magnussen now starts tenth and could score points for two different teams in a season, despite only starting two races, which is remarkable. He did crash in FP3 but has been either tenth or eleventh in the other three timed sessions. Hulkenberg starts twelfth and is not out of the points race.
Visa RB
Improved form this weekend. Tsunoda starts eleventh, Ricciardo fourteenth and with a bit of luck they might get a point on the board.
Sauber
Thanks to others’ misfortunes and various penalties, Sauber will not start last. Hamilton, and now Ocon, will start from the pit lane after engine changes. Gasly was not able to set a time in qualifying and was due to start last, so Bottas now starts sixteenth, Zhou seventeenth. It doesn’t matter as they are still driving a shitbox.
Alpine
What a disastrous weekend for Alpine. The cars have been breaking down on a regular basis, Gasly retired in Q1 without setting a time and now Ocon starts from the pits after having to take a new engine. Gasly was disqualified post qualifying for a fuel flow infringement, but he will start eighteenth. It is as clear as soup.
Call me a cynic, but maybe the fact that the team intend to close their engine manufacturing facility might be linked to the fact that their engines are now breaking down. A nut not tightened here, a loose hose pipe there. F**k you Renault, love the workers. Just getting to the end of the race would be a result.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Summary
We start in a strong position, but that means little at this particular track. We have had a couple of fairly boring straight forward races here, but it does tend to throw up strange races. Things happen, and right up to the very end of the race.
Remember 2021? Verstappen was leading from Perez and Hamilton on lap 43, but he suffered a blow out, leaving Perez in the lead. The race was eventually red flagged to allow the drivers to pit for fresh tyres for safety reasons. George Russell’s car then broke down on the way to the re-start grid.
We were left with a two lap shoot out with Perez starting in front of Hamilton. Hamilton then hit the wrong button on his steering wheel and overshot the first corner and was out of the points. Perez took the win. We were on Perez that day, so we got on the lucky side of the draw.
Leclerc carrying Our Cash
Today, Charles Leclerc is carrying our cash, and a fair bit of it as well. He has been here before. Leclerc has started on pole here for the last three years and finished 4/DNF/3. There is no shame in taking the chance to lay off the bet on Leclerc at around evens. History is not on his side, but an optimist would say that he is due one. Fingers crossed.
I was tempted to just sit on my hands for this one. We are in a very good position as things stand, and if things go well, a good weekend is possible. But I will try and add another winner or two.
Oliver Bearman is trying for a remarkable double of scoring points for two different teams in the same season, and in just two races. He did it for Ferrari in Saudi, and he only had one practice session that weekend. Here he starts tenth and his pace in practice has been good, the FP3 crash excepted. The only car behind him that is massively faster in Norris’ McLaren.
Retirements Likely
We should expect a few retirements in the race, and it may only take one of the cars in front of him to retire, and he can sneak home in the points. He raced in F2 last year and won both races, one from pole, so he has good memories of the circuit.
The risk is that he starts in the middle of the pack this time, and he is in the first lap crash zone. However, odds of 2.63 do look a touch generous and worth a modest bet.
2024 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to finish in the points @ 2.63 with Betfred, Betfair
With the two Alpines suffering with chronic unreliability this weekend (sabotage?)I am happy to split a point on them NOT to be classified finishers.
