2024 Bahrain GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Bahrain GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Bahrain GP Raceday preview. We landed a nice match bet in qualifying, a 2 pointer on Ricciardo to out qualify Magnussen. Never in doubt… Get his thoughts on the first race of the 2024 F1 season below.
2024 Bahrain GP Raceday Update
Everyone else is just racing for second place. So says George Russell, regarding the prospects for the nineteen drivers not called Max Verstappen. At best odds of 1.20, the market agrees.
Carlos Sainz says that come the race, Red Bull have ‘a race pace that no one can have’. They are further helped by having a new set of soft tyres, while the rest only have used sets. They used the hard tyre in practice, while others burned through the softs.
Verstappen was fastest in Q3, but Leclerc set the fastest time of all in Q2, so perhaps the Red Bull man will not have it all his own way. Last year, Verstappen was 0.292 ahead of Leclerc, this year it was 0.228. So, Ferrari have made a very marginal improvement. In last year’s race here, Verstappen took off in the lead and won the race by just under twelve seconds from teammate Perez.
Perez starts 5th
Sergio Perez qualified second last year, but only fifth yesterday. He just doesn’t have the one lap pace to be competitive, not on the purposed built tracks at least. However, he will have the Red Bull’s race pace at his disposal and he will be looking for a podium finish.
The evidence from the long runs in practice suggest that the Red Bull is a stronger race car than qualifier, as was the case last year. Ferrari were the reverse of that in 2023 and today is the acid test as to how well they have addressed that problem.
Russell Strong
George Russell got every last drop of speed out of his Mercedes, leaving his teammate lagging, back in ninth place. As usual, Mercedes say they have set the car up for the race and not optimised for one lap pace, but who hasn’t?
What they mean is that they once again have a car that is slow over one lap, but hopefully looks after the tyres better than most. We shall see. They may well have stronger competition in the upper midfield this year. Ferrari look to have a better car and if they can manage the tyres well, Mercedes are going to struggle for a podium.
It is worth looking at last year’s race as a form guide. The rules are much the same so we can have some idea of who has improved and who has gone backwards, in relative terms.
Red Bull The Team To Beat
Red Bull remain the team to beat, no surprise there. Another 1-2 finish today? It would not be a shock. Perez did line up on the front row last year but had a poor start and was passed by Leclerc. It took Perez 26 laps to pass Leclerc for second place.
He did the first two stints on the soft tyre and with a brand new set at his disposal, I would expect something similar and Perez is in a good position to attack on the new tyres. The DRS is also available from lap 2 this season, so he will be looking to make his advantage count early.
Ferrari were second only to Red Bull in qualifying last year and they are in much the same position this year. If they have solved the tyre wear issue, they should get one car on the podium.
George Russell is three places better off than 12 months ago, Lewis Hamilton two places worse. Their car is better, so it was a poor effort from Hamilton. He finished fifth (Russell seventh) so it will be interesting to see if Mercedes can improve on their qualifying pace.
Alonso 6th
Aston Martin have Alonso starting sixth, one place down on 2023. Alonso was happy with his qualifying effort but he didn’t sound too optimistic about the race prospects. Last year he made up two places to finish on the podium but he was helped by Leclerc retiring.
Last year’s car was relatively more competitive at this stage of the season. Lance stroll qualified eighth in 2023, despite being injured. A fully fit Stroll was just twelfth yesterday. It looks like the Aston has fallen back a little.
Disappointing McLaren
McLaren were disappointing yesterday. We were on Norris each way for pole yesterday, and it nearly paid out. The car had the pace to be on the front row, but Norris completely ballsed up the first sector to the extent that his chances were gone. He got the fastest second sector but it was all too late. He is definitely out of position.
Their car is a huge improvement on twelve months ago, but last year’s car was a dog until the Austria update. How the two McLarens get on will be interesting. They lacked straight line speed, which may make overtaking tricky.
Nico Hulkenberg repeated his tenth place of 2023. He made Q3 eight times last year but then spent the races going down the order. The team have worked hard on long run pace so it will be interesting to see if Hulkenberg can improve on his eventual 15th place.
They definitely look to be in better shape and are no longer the back markers. Hulkenberg is the only other driver in the top 10 with a new set of soft tyres, along with the two Red Bulls. Everyone behind him also has, but he may be able to get a jump on the cars ahead at the start.
VisaRB Look Decent
The VISA RB, last year’s Alpha Tauri, looks to be a little better. Tsunoda did a good job, Ricciardo not so much. It will be interesting to see if the RB19 lookalike has the same kind of excellent tyre wear as the Red Bull had last year.
If so, our double points finish is still alive. Ricciardo needs to get his finger out, however. The team are optimistic that they have good race pace. Let’s hope so.
No Progress Williams
Williams look to be in much the same position as last year. The car still is best on the straights, so most of this track suits them. Albon is two places further up the grid this year and he managed a tenth place finish here in 2023. He was helped by three cars ahead of him retiring.
Sergeant is two places back on 2023, but he had a decent race and moved up to twelfth. They will need a little luck to repeat the trick.
Stake F1, last year’s Alfa Romeo, have gone backwards. It was a disappointing effort but the car is just plain slow and not even as good as in testing. The only thing positive is that there is one team who are worse.
Alpine, a works team remember, fill the back row and are likely to finish there. It looks like sacking their top managers last year has blown up in their faces. Expect a mass exodus of the remaining talent.
Race Pace
We have the one lap performance out in the open now, but what about the race pace? Based on testing and free practice, Red Bull look to have around two tenths over Ferrari, not the 0.5 that Russell was suggesting.
Mercedes are a fraction off the Ferrari’s long run pace, but we are fairly sure that Mercedes will be good on their tyres, while this is the acid test for Ferrari. McLaren should be next best with Aston Martin likely to be detached from the ‘big four’ by a few tenths.
Visa RB are close to Aston Martin with the remaining four teams very close to each other on long run pace. Haas are a looking to be the best of that lower midfield group with Alpine and Stake F1 the back markers.
Race Day selections
The pole position driver has won four of the last nine races here and Max won from pole last year. He is a 1.20 shot to repeat the trick. Is there a viable alternative? I doubt it. The rest are likely playing for second place, just like George says.
What about Perez? He has the quickest car with a handy new soft tyre advantage. Enough to get on to the podium? I think so.
2024 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez to finish on the podium @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes
Livescorebet have an interesting market. A without Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari market. I like the chances of Tsunoda. Of the ‘bottom five’ teams, he looks to have the car with the best race pace. He has a good record here, 9th, 8th and 11th in the last three years.
Tsunoda has improved on his grid position by five places on average at this track, and while he isn’t likely to do that today, it suggests he can make progress. He is 2.00 to finish in the points, but I’ll take the chance in the without the big five market.
2024 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to win ‘w/o the big five @ 4.00 with Livescorebet
Lando Norris should be sitting on the front row and while the McLarens’ race pace may not quite be there yet, it does look better than the Aston Martin.
2024 Bahrain GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to beat Fernando Alonso @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes (Alt match bet 4)
The same firm also have a group bet which looks to offer some value. Group 3 has the two Stake F1 drivers, said to be as slow as Alpine on race pace, Logan Sargeant in the Williams and Kevin Magnusson in what looks to be a much improved Haas.
Yes, we are taking a chance on their race pace really improving, but their times in testing and in free practice suggests that it has. Hulkenberg showed that car also still has pace. Magnussen has had a couple of 5th places here, so he likes the track and he looks worth a bet.
