2024 Belgian GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Belgian GP Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Belgian GP betting preview. It was a weekend to remember for us in Hungary, fingers crossed for more of the same.
2024 Belgian GP Preview
It was a profitable Hungarian GP, the race that just keeps on giving. A 21.75 point profit takes the seasonal tally to + 36.66 points. We now head to the legendary Spa-Francorchamps circuit and the Belgian GP. This is the last race before the summer break. Everyone gets four weeks off, before the trucks roll into Zandvoort, and the Dutch GP.
Spa is a proper, old school, fast racetrack. It is a long lap at 7km, the longest on the F1 circuit, and flowing for most of the lap with just a couple of hairpins and two chicanes. The rest is all fast stuff. It has gradients, it has flat out sectors, it usually rains at some point, and it is regarded as one of the very best tracks we race on.
It puts similar demands on the cars as Silverstone and that race should be a decent form guide, as it even had rain thrown in. Overtaking is relatively easy, certainly more so that the Hungaroring.
Like most tracks, the DNF rate has fallen in recent years. From 2014 to 2017 the average was exactly four, since 2017 it is 1.60, with four having exactly two. Only the non-race saw zero DNF’s.
2024 Belgian GP: The Weather Forecast
The early forecast is for a showery Friday, quite cloudy and 23 degrees. Saturday is set to be cloudy and wet but improving during the day, so qualifying might get away with being dry. The best weather is set for Sunday afternoon, with 21 degrees and partly sunny.
There are showers forecast for the morning, and trying to accurately predict the weather here is something of a black art. The track is in a mountain range and has its own microclimate. Of the last ten races here, including the faux 2021 ‘race’, the pole position driver has won six times, the others coming from fifth, second, fourteenth and sixth.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
It does now look like Red Bull’s time at the top is over. They only have the second best car, and given favourable conditions, Red Bull might not even be the second best as Mercedes are quick in cooler conditions, and this weekend is not going to be no more than warm, certainly not hot like Budapest.
Verstappen is starting to boil over, and Perez remains in poor form, despite a better recovery drive in Hungary. Their lead in the constructors race is now just 51 points, with McLaren reeling them in at a rate of knots. After the Chinese GP McLaren were 99 points behind and at that rate, they can catch Red Bull by the end of the season.
Childish Verstappen
Verstappen is simply no longer used to being the chaser. His team did not give him the best race strategy in Hungary, but they rarely get it wrong. His reaction was poor, poor for morale, and ended up with his engineer calling him childish.
It was all very unseemly, and it very nearly ended with a DNF after he hit Hamilton and somehow the car survived to get him home in fifth. His head is not in the right place, and that means more tantrums and probably accidents.
Verstappen has won the last three Belgian GPs (the 2021 race was not actually a race, due to poor weather meaning it was run for a few laps behind the safety car. It was a cruel trick on the paying fans, who didn’t get a refund as there had been ‘a race’).
However, it has been a Red Bull 1-2 for the last two years. It has been a decent venue for Perez and he will be hoping to put in a few clear rounds and deliver some decent points. If not, we may not see him in the car after the summer break. He is under considerable pressure to perform.
Grid Penalty
The team’s upgrade introduced in Hungary didn’t work as expected (it was track specific and will not be used this weekend) and Verstappen is now getting likely to take a grid penalty for requiring new power unit components. Reports are that he will take an new ICE and a ten place grid penalty.
It is the time of year, and a venue historically, when teams have taken on new parts. Verstappen won from fourteenth in 2022 (and he took a six place penalty in 2023 for a gearbox change), after taking a raft of penalties for new parts.
So did most of the field, and that he ‘only’ started fourteenth, was a bonus. However, he had a very dominant car and could afford to take the hit and still win. He has not got that luxury this year. Is the sky falling in for Verstappen?
Verstappen should be in the mix for a podium, but if he does take a grid penalty, and that looks odds on, it will be that bit harder. It is harder to follow the car in front this year than last year, or the year before, and those cars in front are now on a much more equal footing, and harder to pass.
McLaren
The best car and now with two drivers who have picked up their debut wins in 2024. It was not a straightforward win for Piastri in Hungary, as once again, McLaren made life difficult for themselves.
Pulling in Norris to pit before the race leader, to cover off the undercut threat from Hamilton, meant that Norris was able to leapfrog Piastri. It was an overly cautious move by McLaren. They could have pitted Piastri first, as the race leader is entitled to, then pitted Norris and still been clear.
Messy
Norris was eventually persuaded to hand the lead back to Piastri, but it was all very messy and unnecessary. It is a constant worry that McLaren are not making the right calls in terms of strategy. They should be a lot closer to Red Bull, but poor race execution remains their Achillies Heel.
Spa has not been a good venue for McLaren in recent years, but they now have the car to win. Norris has only managed a best of two seventh place finishes here and Piastri had a DNF last year. The Aussie did qualify in second and finish in second place in the sprint last year. Norris is the ante post favourite for the first time in 2024.
Ferrari
Down to third place in the Constructors’ Championship and they will be nervously looking at Mercedes looming large in their rear view mirrors. It really has been a fall from grace for Ferrari, losing their way since the upgrade introduced at Barcelona.
That upgrade effectively introduced high speed porpoising in the car and while it produced more downforce, it made the car very hard to drive. The floor was modified for the Hungarian GP, but it was hard to say if it made a great deal of difference. The Hungaroring doesn’t have much high speed stuff, so Spa is going to be the acid test for the new floor.
More Fixes
Ferrari are bringing another raft of fixes for the problem. Leclerc has said ‘On a high-speed track, I expect us to struggle a bit more’. A lot depends on whether the latest attempted fixes can be made to work. If you are backing Ferrari, keep your fingers crossed.
From nine podiums from the first eight races, Ferrari have had just one third place in the last five. They were fourth and sixth in Hungary, but that was helped by Perez and Russell starting from way back on the grid. They look to have the fourth best car on the grid now. Leclerc has won here, back in 2019, and was third last year. Sainz’ best finish here was a third in 2022.
Mercedes
It was a podium finish for Lewis Hamilton in Hungary, surviving a clumsy lunge by Verstappen late in the race. George Russell cocked up qualifying and his was just a recovery drive to finish eighth.
The team have had five podium finishes from the last five races, but Russell has picked up just four points in the last two. He will be looking to get back on the podium this weekend and narrow what is now a deficit to Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship. Hamilton has won four times at Spa, Russell’s best was a second place in 2021, the race that never really was.
It looks like the cooler temperatures expected this weekend will give Mercedes the conditions they need to be competitive again. They locked out the front row at Silverstone, and that should not be under appreciated. Hamilton won the race but Russell was forced to retire from the race.
They should be thereabouts again this weekend, giving Red Bull more grief, but if they can also repeat their Silverstone win, they will hurt McLaren as well.
Aston Martin
Stuck squabbling with the Visa RBs, or Haas, for the minor points is not what Alonso signed up for. He sounds resigned to the rest of the season being a grind in a mediocre car. They did have a better race at Silverstone, finishing seventh and eighth.
They finished fifth and ninth here last year, so it looks like they can score more points this weekend. However, Aston Martin are within reach for a number of teams who can also be in the hunt for points at Spa.
Visa RB
Tsunoda managed to pull off a one stop race in Hungary to finish ninth, but the team ruined Ricciardo’s weekend by pitting him on lap seven, dropping him into slow traffic, and his race was run. He had a very good chance of a top 10 finish, but that he didn’t was not his fault.
Seven top 10 finishes from the last eight races tells us that they will be thereabouts again. Tsunoda managed a tenth place last year, and he was tenth at Silverstone a few weeks ago. Might he be tenth this weekend?
Haas
Drew a blank in Hungary but a return to a faster track may return them to the points. However, it is a very congested midfield. I would say that they will be more competitive on a track such as Spa. Magnussen has only ever managed one top 10 finish here, Hulkenberg four, but he hasn’t scored for a few years. Hulkenberg is much the more likely to lead the charge, as usual.
Alpine
After a run of four point scoring races, and two double points finishes, Alpine have dropped off the radar again. Gasly has suffered back to back DNS and DNF, Ocon 16th and 18th. Just not at the races, and their poor showing at Silverstone doesn’t bode well for this weekend.
They have surprised here in the past, Alonso was fifth a couple of years ago, Ocon seventh and eighth in the last two years. Ocon does go well here, finishing in the top 10 for his last six races at Spa. Gasly was third in the sprint race here last year, but thankfully, we do not have that format this year.
Who knows how well Alpine will go. They are a bit of a mystery team.
Williams
Had their best race of the season at Silverstone, with Albon finishing ninth, and Sargeant, a season’s best eleventh. Albon finished fifth and sixth here when he was a Red Bull driver and picked up a tenth for Williams in 2022.
It is hard to be confident about how Williams are going to go, and there are more obvious choices for a points finish, but Albon at least knows how to get the job done here. The team are reasonably optimistic that their car will be better suited to Spa than the Hungaroring and their Silverstone form confirms it.
Kick Sauber
Announced that they are hiring former Ferrari team boss Mattia Binotto for what will be the Audi team’s COO, and chief technical officer. In a nutshell, the current management at Sauber are being culled.
It seems a bit late in the day to be sorting out top managerial positions for Audi’s 2025 entry, but clearly nothing has gone right at Sauber for quite a while now. They remain pointless, and their recent upgrades have failed to address that. There is no reason to suggest that they will be picking up any points this weekend.
2024 Belgian GP: Summary
The unravelling of Red Bull’s current period of dominance is happening at pace now. Their number two driver is not delivering nearly enough, and now their star driver is throwing his toys out of the pram.
Newey is leaving and the top management are not singing from the same hymn sheet. If Verstappen has to take a grid penalty this weekend, on one of his ‘home’ races, his fettle will not be improved. They are suddenly very easy to oppose.
Mercedes have made great strides in recent months and while they are still a little inconsistent, given cooler conditions, they have a race winning car. It looks like they will get favourable conditions this weekend, and that can inflict further pain on Verstappen.
Ferrari have stalled, lost direction (and more staff) and are vulnerable to a stronger performance from both Mercedes this weekend.
Mercedes vs McLaren
It looks like we have a race which will be contested between McLaren and Mercedes. Verstappen may be able to join the podium party, but any grid penalty just makes that more difficult. Silverstone is a decent form guide for this weekend, and that it was just three weeks ago, even more so.
Mercedes locked out the front row and Hamilton won the race from Verstappen and Norris. George Russell retiring hurt Mercedes and it is unusual for them to suffer a mechanical DNF. Another would be a surprise.
McLaren have the fastest car but are not necessarily the fastest team. They need to get used to being at the front, racing for wins, not just podiums. They need to be flawless. McLaren do not have a big enough car advantage to get away with a sub optimal race execution. Mercedes still have that winning DNA. They may not have the fastest car, but they can be the fastest team.
2024 Belgian GP Ante Post Selections
We have seen seven different winners from thirteen races. Formula 1 is too predictable? Not in 2024. Those winners have come from four different teams, and that is unlikely to change. Could we have another different driver winning this weekend? Not unless Perez can make a bigger comeback than Lazarus.
With Verstappen looking likely to take some grid penalty pain and Perez struggling for form, It is possible to rule out a Red Bull win, not entirely, but it seems unlikely.
Main Contenders
McLaren have won two races in 2024 and picked up nine further podiums. They are right up there as contenders. Despite Piastri’s win last weekend, Norris remains the team’s lead driver. He is 50 points clear of Piastri and his qualifying average is 3.58, compared to Piastri’s 5.23.
Norris has picked up two pole positions and Piastri has lost out to Norris in the last five qualifying sessions. Norris is just that bit faster. He could have, sorry, should have won at Silverstone, but was undermined by poor strategy. He could have won a number of additional races this season, and that is where you have to make the judgement. Is Norris/McLaren the value bet at 2.10?
Happy Hamilton
At Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton’s tail is wagging again. He now has a race winning car at his disposal, and while it is not the class of the field, it has won two of the last three races. It has also had two of the last five pole positions.
Russell is 10-3 in qualifying with Hamilton this season, but just four points from the last two races means that Hamilton, with a win and a third place, has overtaken him. It is not clear who is their best bet if they were to win this weekend. Hamilton has the better track record, but he has had the better car for most of their time in F1.
Ferrari just haven’t looked competitive enough to be seriously considered for the win this weekend.
Value Gone
We got a great price for Piastri to win last weekend (17.00) and now the McLaren drivers are 2.10 and 5.00 for Norris and Piastri respectively. It is fair to say the value has gone. That is not to say they won’t win, but given that their race execution has been less than stellar, and we may have mixed conditions once again, are they banker material? I don’t think so.
Red Bull have their own problems and those may be compounded by a likely grid penalty for Verstappen. Ferrari are still fighting their porpoising issues and are on the back foot until they fix that.
Which leaves Mercedes. That they locked out the front row in Silverstone, and eventually won the race, does suggest that they are in with a decent chance this weekend. It is true to say that McLaren could have/should have won the British GP, with either driver, but they didn’t….and it wasn’t their first dropped ball this season.
Back Mercedes
Both Russell and Hamilton have won this season, but Russell has had two pole positions, Hamilton just one front row. That just about swings it in Russell’s direction for me, but as he is just that bit flakier over a race distance, it is very close.
As such, I will back Mercedes to be the winning team, and have an each way bet Russell to win. Their odds are much better value in what looks to be a very open race.
Of course, Verstappen may not be the only driver to take a penalty this weekend. Historically, teams tend to choose a track on which overtaking is easier, and gives them a chance to recover. The alternative is to make the changes at a track on which they expect to struggle, and just write it off.
Verstappen just looks more likely to pull the trigger this weekend, as he is due a change, and the next race on the calendar is the Netherlands GP. Red Bull will want to make sure Verstappen has the best chance possible to win his home Grand Prix.
Fingers crossed that Mercedes do not announce that they will take a hit, shortly after I post this preview!
2024 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point Mercedes to be the winning team @ 7.00 with Betfair
2024 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point e/w George Russell to win @ 11.00 with Betvictor (e/w 1-3 1/5 the odds)
I am reasonably happy to have another egg in the Mercedes basket and back Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium. His record here is strong and he has finished on the podium in three of the last four races in 2024. The car has been transformed in recent races and while the podium contender list is getting longer, Hamilton has been one to achieve it consistently in recent races.
2024 Belgian GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 2.80 with Betfair (2.75 Skybet, Boylesports)
The final bet for now is in the very competitive points finish market. It is a very tricky, very competitive market and the list of contenders is long, but I will make one selection at acceptably good odds.
Yuki Tsunoda is doing a decent job in the Visa RB. The team have now scored points in nine of the last eleven races, Tsunoda has scored in seven of them. He was tenth here last year, and more importantly, was tenth at Silverstone a few weeks ago.
