2024 Belgian GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2024 Belgian GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Belgian GP Raceday preview. Unfortunately, we were out of luck in qualifying but we go again.
2024 Belgian GP Raceday
It looks like we could be in for a classic Belgian GP. This is a proper racetrack. Overtaking is relatively easy, track position isn’t king and the faster cars will rise to the top steps of the podium. However, we start the race with the main protagonists out of position and interlopers at the front of the grid.
We have had mixed conditions across the weekend so far, which has muddied the waters form wise. Friday’s free practice sessions were dry and sunny, but Saturday saw wet conditions dominate and not a slick tyre was seen.
For today’s race? Pleasant, dry, partly sunny, twenty two degrees and less humid. No mention of rain in the forecast. We are back to Friday’s conditions. A wet qualifying, with the cars set up locked in from yesterday, but now a dry race.
Different Downforce
The teams were aware of the weather forecast and should have set the cars up with today’s race in mind, but it was clear that different teams choose different levels of downforce. That is quite normal for this track.
The lay out of the circuit means a compromise between low drag for the long, flat out sections, and the twisty, corner laden middle sector. That middle sector is where a good lap time lies. Stick on more downforce and the better grip yields a better time, but it does mean that the car will be slower on the straights. The straights is where the overtaking happens.
More downforce also has the advantage of helping by lowering tyre degradation. A high downforce set up in a wet qualifying session was quicker, but the question now is, which set up is better over a 40 lap race?
2024 Belgian GP Raceday Team By Team
Red Bull
Unusually, the Red Bull on the front row is not Verstappen, but the out of form Sergio Perez. With a ten place grid penalty, Verstappen starts from eleventh place. That Perez qualified second suggests that he had a very good car for a wet qualifying session yesterday.
In the dry on Friday, Perez was in the more expected positions of seventh and ninth in the practice sessions. Perez very nearly missed out on Q3, getting in by 0.003 seconds. He was that close to getting the sack, but now, he is in a podium winning position and maybe he can now keep his job until the end of the season. Verstappen has been on the pace in all sessions, wet or dry.
More Downforce
Red Bull have set the car up with more downforce which is going to put Verstappen at a disadvantage on the straights, but quicker in the no overtaking middle sector. It will also aid his tyre wear, and that is where Verstappen thinks the race will be decided.
Verstappen, starting in the midfield, will get the advantage of DRS (and the Red Bull DRS is especially strong), and that will negate his lack of straight line speed, so long as he is within a second of the car in front. That, just as much as good tyre wear, will be a huge part of his race strategy.
It should be noted that Verstappen was second quickest in sector 1, fastest in sector 2 and fastest in sector 3 in Q3 yesterday. Norris by comparison was 3rd, 7th and 2nd respectively. It would seem that his lack of straight line speed was not born out in the wet yesterday.
Four Timer?
Verstappen has won the last three Belgian GPs. The 2021 ‘race’ was not a race. Poor weather conditions meant we only had two laps behind the safety car before the race was abandoned.
In 2022 Verstappen had grid penalties which meant he had to start from fourteenth on the grid, but he won the race by 17.8 seconds. In 2023 Verstappen had a five place grid penalty and started from sixth place. He won by 22.3 seconds.
It is clear that Red Bull know what they are doing at Spa, but this season, they do not have the advantage of having a dominant car. It should not be so easy today, but it is doable.
McLaren
First and second in FP2, the McLaren ran with a lower downforce set up in yesterday qualifying. In effect, they set the car up for a dry race and took some pain in qualifying. They have bet that their car will be the quickest in the dry.
Overtaking is relatively easy here and they should have a quick car on the straights. However, it wasn’t that quick on the straights yesterday and historically, it hasn’t been one of the car’s great strengths in 2024. Their straight line pace was pretty much equal with the Red Bull.
Set up wise, it looks like Red Bull have made the better call. They have been there, seen it, got the T-shirt. McLaren are still coming to terms with racing at the very front and have faltered strategically in previous races. The McLaren had good long run pace on Friday and they will be more competitive today.
Ferrari
Leclerc inherits the pole position and it is fair to say he was surprised. They looked to have third row pace all weekend, but he strung together a very good final qualifying run, on new inters, and in effect, he is starting out of position. The car just doesn’t look to have the pace to win the race. Leclerc inherited pole position here last year and finished third. I suspect he would take that today.
Mercedes
I pinned my hopes on Mercedes ante-post and was wrong. The team brought a lot of new upgrades this weekend but have taken them off as they just were not working as expected. That has put them on the back foot.
Hamilton starts third and is our only ante post bet that looks to have any chance, and that chance of a podium finish looks a bit slim now. George Russell starts from sixth and was happy with his qualifying efforts. That says everything about his chances.
Russell employed a one stop strategy last year and moved up from eighth to sixth. Perhaps he can do something similar, but there does not seem to be the kind of pace here that Mercedes had been showing in Montreal or Silverstone.
Half of the track has been resurfaced in recent weeks and the tyre degradation is higher than last year, and the rain will have made it quite green for the race, so a one stopper will be less likely this year.
Aston Martin
Alonso just about dragged his car into the top ten and now starts from eighth. That looks to be as good as he could have got. Stroll starts fifteenth and their car just doesn’t look to have any great merits here.
Alpine
The mystery team actually looked very good in yesterday’s wet running. I had thought that they had whacked on a lot of downforce for the wet, but the sector times showed Ocon fastest in S1 and tenth in S2, meaning that he had gone low on wing/drag. Ending up ninth and twelfth on the grid was a little disappointing in the end as they looked on for a double Top 10.
Ocon has finished in the top eight in his last five races here and he could play an interesting role in today’s race. He is two places in front of Verstappen, and with the Alpine being the fastest car in sector one, it could be that Verstappen finds him hard to pass.
The team has been struggling with poor reliability of late, on Gasly’s side of the garage, but Ocon had a problem in FP1 and did no running. Ocon was seventh in the dry conditions in FP2, and if the car doesn’t breakdown, he could be back in the points later.
Williams
Albon starts tenth thanks to Verstappen’s penalty, but he should be passed by Verstappen quickly enough. A points finish may be possible, but he may need some attrition ahead.
Visa RB
Ricciardo was not happy with his thirteenth place and Tsunoda starts from the back thanks to his 60 place penalty. The car has shown any great pace, wet or dry.
Kick Sauber
Mediocre as usual.
Haas
Just not got any pace this weekend. Magnussen was eighth in FP 2, but otherwise they have not threatened the top 10.
Summary
On paper, this looks finely poised. The Red Bull has been the faster car in three of the four timed sessions and they do seem to have the best car this weekend.
McLaren are banking on their set up baring fruit over a race distance. Their car has the trait of being good on the tyres and being strong later in the stints. The sector times do not make good reading for them, and Red Bull have set their car up to get the most of their tyres and they have not sacrificed much speed in doing so. The Red Bull looks the faster package this weekend.
I have got this far and have not even mentioned Sergio Perez. The Red Bull number two is racing for his career and starts from second place. Has not started from second place since Japan and China, where he finished second and third respectively.
Surprising Perez
His pace in the first three sessions was poor and it was a surprise to see him so high up. Like Verstappen, he was quick in sector 2, but just about top 10 in the other two sectors. He will have a chance to take the lead by slip streaming Leclerc in sector 1, but as soon as Verstappen gets on his tail, he will pull over.
Of course, if Verstappen has a problem, Perez will be free to try and become the eighth different winner of the season, but I doubt he will. At least Red Bull have Perez in the mix this weekend. He starts ahead of the McLarens and will no doubt do his best to keep them there for as long as possible, which could play into Verstappen’s hands.
Verstappen is a proven master of the come from behind wins at Spa. The car does look to have the pace to do it again. It will be more difficult than in previous years, but this is a track where having the faster car means everything. Track position is not king and Red Bull have planned this weekend’s procedure and look like executing it well.
2024 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win @ 3.00 with Unibet, Livescorebet, Betvictor
We are on Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium and the good news is that he starts third. The bad news is that it will be hard for him to stay there.
He got the conditions he needed yesterday, but today, the sun is out and the track will be a lot warmer. That moves things out of the Mercedes’ sweet spot. He has the two, faster, McLarens behind him and Verstappen is likely to be charging through.
Hamilton has finished on the podium in three of the last four races so he is not without a chance, but it looks a big ask. He started third last year and finished fourth, history may repeat itself.
Taking a chance on the Alpines is risky given their reliability woes of late, but Ocon loves it here. The car’s set up will make him hard to pass, and he has the straight line pace to attack. He looks to have a good car for the race and the Alpines had decent long run pace on Friday, a couple of tenths up on Aston Martin and more on the Williams.
Ocon is 2.10 to finish in the points but I will back him to win Ladbrokes Group 2. He is up against Alonso, Albon and Gasly. It will be close, but the odds are good enough to have a go with. Fingers crossed the car lasts the distance.
2024 Belgian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ocon to win Group 2 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes
Haas were expecting to be quick here and when Magnussen popped up in eighth place in FP2, it looked like that was the case. However, they were slow in qualifying yesterday.
Maybe a return to warmer, dry conditions can switch them on again. Their long run pace on Friday was good, they were the fifth fastest team. Ladbrokes have matched Magnussen with Bottas which is interesting.
Magnussen is starting three places down on Bottas, but his race pace has been far better than Bottas’ in 2024. Their qualifying averages are 15.69 for Magnussen, 14.9 for Bottas, and their finishing positions 13.1 and 15.8 respectively. Magnussen is 11-2 against Bottas this season. Magnussen is said to have had a suspension problem in qualifying and the team say that ‘they could put that right overnight’.
