2024 Brazil GP Outright Betting Preview

James Punt finally landed a couple of nice winners, including a two pointer, in his Mexico GP Raceday update. Hopefully we have turned the corner now. Check out James’ 2024 Brazil GP outright betting preview and tips below.

2024 Brazil GP

Just four more races to go and this weekend the Formula 1 roadshow heads to Brazil and the Autódromo José Carlos Pace in São Paulo. The track is a traditional, old school layout with no silly gimmicks. It is a short lap, like last weekend’s Mexican GP, at 71 laps.

It features three distinct sectors. Sector 1 starts halfway down the long start/finish straight and goes into a downhill corkscrew complex of three corners and then onto a long downhill straight. Sector two starts with a quick lefthander, another sweeping left hander, a short straight and into a slow, twisting series of six corners, ending with a long, downhill sweep into sector three, which starts with a hard left, before climbing back up the hill, through three sweeping curves to the finish line.

The first and last sectors are fast, power hungry sectors, the middle all about mechanical grip and slow speed cornering.

Compromise Track

This is a classic compromise track. You need a low drag setup to be fast in sectors one and three, but lots of downforce to be fast in the middle sector. But of course, you can’t have both so the engineers and drivers have to find a compromise they are happy with, and that is not easy.

A setup that gives the best lap time, good for qualifying, might give you a poor race setup. A car that is slow on the straights is vulnerable to attack, and hard to defend with. The middle sector is important as it is a significant part of the total lap time. Not enough downforce and you lap time will be poor and grid position for the 2024 Brazil GP uncompetitive. It will also mean higher tyre degradation as the car would slide about.

Aerodynamic Downforce Key

Ideally, you want to be driving a car that produces the most efficient aerodynamic downforce. More grip with not too much drag. Like a Red Bull at its best, but that may not be the case anymore. McLaren may have claims to that title in 2024, but the cars are pretty close this year.

Ferrari have a car that is at is best in slow corners, so it will be quick in the middle sector, but they are not so good in fast corners and there are enough here to bother them. Certainly, it doesn’t look as good for them as Mexico City.

The track has been totally resurfaced since last year, and only recently completed. It has been power washed to try and take the sheen off it, but it will be a learning experience in FP1, the only practice session, so the strategists and engineers will have a lot of data gathering to go through. If the weather forecast is right, and we get rain on Friday morning for FP1, it will be hard to gather much data of any value, other than for a wet race.

This another Sprint race weekend, so extra points are up for grabs.

The 2024 Brazil GP Weather Forecast

Rain is fairly common at the Brazilian GP, and not just a bit of drizzle, it tends to come in downpours, often enough to bring out a safety car or red flag.

The forecast for this weekend Is for warm and humid conditions. Around 25 degrees and plenty of cloud around. Showers are likely on Friday morning, and on Saturday afternoon. Sunday’s forecast says showers in the morning.

Of course, showers are hit and miss, so we could get a dry weekend, but it does look like rain will arrive at some point in the weekend. I would not take the forecasts as set in stone. I have checked for the last four days, and it has changed every time.

Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Their Constructors’ Championship lead is now just 29 points, with Ferrari in second place and the wind in their sails. Piastri let the side down with his poor qualifying last weekend. He recovered to take 8th place, but it was important points dropped.

Norris managed to come second, but the car has lost that dominance it was showing before the autumn break. A return to a more traditional track should be good news for McLaren, and they will need to extend that points lead as Ferrari look likely to be strong in Vegas and Abu Dhabi, as both feature a lot of slow corners.

New Floor

Lando Norris had the new floor in Mexico, and did it make any difference? It was hard to tell with Piastri racing from the back, so hard to compare the two, but it certainly produced no obvious uptick in performance. Both cars should be running it this weekend.

Norris finished second in Mexico, and maybe he would have been in the hunt for a win, but his race was compromised by Verstappen, once more driving him off the track, twice this time. Verstappen knows that he has a commanding lead and he just needs to stop Norris getting the wins. He was happy enough with this two ten second penalties. He still finished sixth, and he ruined any chances of a win for Norris.

Norris was second to Verstappen in both the sprint and grand prix here last year, Piastri a distant 14th.

Great All-Rounder

The McLaren is a great all-rounder, but if it has a weakness, it is braking into slow corners. The car is much happier on fast flowing tracks. This track is mostly fast and flowing.

There is some heavy breaking into T8, T10 and T 12, but a lot of the corners just require a lift off the throttle, rather than having to throw out the anchors. On the whole, I would say that this track should be quite good for McLaren.

Ferrari 

Leclerc’s 4th place finish in 2022 was his best result here, while Sainz was third in the same year. Ferrari last won here in 2018.

Sainz got his second win of the season in Mexico last weekend, and he was the fastest driver of the weekend. Leclerc just doesn’t enjoy a low grip surface. He said he isn’t able to give it maximum attack, which made the difference in qualifying. He eventually went off track late in the race, letting Norris through to take second place.

This track should be OK for Ferrari. They will be fast in the middle sector but they may find it harder to keep Norris at bay in the other two sectors.

Red Bull 

Now relegated to third place in the Constructors’ table, Red Bull have clearly given up on that front. They will settle for the Drivers’ Championship. If they were serious about the Constructors’, they would have binned Perez in the summer break.

They now have a driver in the second seat who is a liability. I cannot think of any other driver on the grid, who would do a worse job. Perez’ confidence has completely disappeared. He could not even stop his car in his grid box correctly. He picked up another penalty for that, just to compound his terrible qualifying.

The Mexican made a good start but then got involved in messy barging match with Lawson and Stroll. He had the excuse that his car was damaged when trying to pass Lawson, but that he is even in that position tells us everything. His record here is quite poor, and it is not going to improve this weekend.

Cruise And Collect

Verstappen is just on a cruise and collect mission now. He will continue to knock Norris off the track, just to minimise any chance that the McLaren driver has of winning the Championship. Getting time penalties is not making much difference to him. The Red Bull was not really competitive in Mexico and it looks like they are just content to see out the season, in third place, but win the Drivers’ title. Their period of domination is over.

Verstappen may need to take a new power unit this weekend. He suffered with problem in FP1 and FP2 last weekend. The team ran him with an older unit for the rest of the weekend, but they may choose to fit a brand new unit to see out the rest of the season. That would mean a five place grid penalty for this weekend. It is a good track for overtaking, so it makes sense as a venue to do it.

It is also a track where running an older, less powerful engine will hurt the important straight line speed. A five place penalty is not the end of the world, and it would only apply to the Grand Prix, and not the sprint race, but it is not ideal.

Lack of Race Pace

Verstappen was more concerned with his lack of race pace in recent races, rather than being handed penalties. He can still drag a good lap time out of the car on soft tyres in qualifying, but on the hards and mediums, on long runs, the pace is not there to mix it with Ferrari and McLaren.

The car is at its weakest in low downforce settings, such as Monza and the thin air of Mexico. With this track being a compromise setup, they will struggle at some points on the lap, but it may not be as bad as Mexico, or Monza. They lack good slow speed pace, so the middle sector will be challenging.

Mercedes 

Same old story. Showing flashes of speed, but ultimately, underachieving. Hamilton ran with the latest upgrades but was out qualified by Russell in the ‘July spec’ car. In the race, Hamilton toiled behind his teammate, despite Russell driving most of the race with a damaged front wing.

Hamilton eventually got past, but it looks like another upgrade that is a bit of a waste of money. Talking of which, with so many crashes and resulting repairs to deal with, the team have ended all development work on the 2024 car. Both cars will have the latest spec floor, the one Russell thrashed in Texas, and that is it for this season. The tin is empty.

Set For Fourth

Mercedes are 146 points behind Red Bull, but under no threat from Aston Martin. I can’t see any reason for them to do anything more with their cars. They may as well run Russell with the old car to the end of the season, though it will be left to the drivers to decides who wants the new upgrade. That suggests that neither are that keen on it, certainly Lewis wasn’t.

Mercedes usually show good speed here, so they should be good on Friday at least. Poor traction is a feature of the car, and that will hurt in the middle sector.

Haas 

Magnussen nearly landed our top 6 bet last Sunday, finishing seventh, just over 4 seconds behind Verstappen. He was quick enough to hold off Piastri’s McLaren and he was giving the Mercedes a hard time for much of the race.

The Texas upgrade has put a fair bit of performance on the car. Magnussen said he was able to push, and not have to worry about looking after they tyres. He is a lot more confident under braking and just finds the upgraded car so much easier to drive.

Closing The Gap

Hulkenberg was a creditable ninth and they closed the gap to Aston Martin by eight points and have moved ten points clear of Visa RB. They were flattered by the poor weekends for Piastri and Perez, but that said, I’d back Magnussen to beat Perez this weekend.

Team boss Ayao Komatsu said that the Mexico City GP was Magnussen’s best ever drive in a Haas, and he could well be right. He is a driver to follow this weekend, on a track where he was the fastest qualifier, in the wet, last year. He scored a point in the sprint race too and he could well do so again. If we get a wet qualifying session, keep Magnussen onside.

Aston Martin 

They may have to have one eye on the resurgent Haas, now 40 points behind, but other than that, their season is run. It has been a poor one, but they have made big investments in personnel and infrastructure with 2026 and beyond in mind.

They finished 3rd and 5th in the GP here last year, but that was in a much more competitive car. They have scored just 14 points across the last six races and with the likes of Haas, Visa RB and Alpine showing improved form following successful upgrades, it looks like it will be harder for Alonso to add too many points to their current tally.

Lance Stroll has now gone seven races without scoring a point. Alonso had to return to Europe for some medical attention following his illness last weekend. He may not be at full fitness for a busy weekend, on an anti-clockwise track that is physically tough on drivers.

Visa RB 

Turned what should have been a good weekend, into a pointless one. Tsunoda crashing out in Q2 not only ended his hopes of making Q3, but also those of his teammate.

Tsunoda was blameless for crashing at the start, but Lawson had a messy race, clashing with Perez and Colapinto, finishing just 16th. He is prepared to be aggressive, but that can have its consequences.

Tsunoda had a modified floor in Mexico, both drivers should have it this weekend. It will be interesting to see if the uptick in form last weekend carries through, or whether it was just track specific. Tsunoda finished ninth here last year, and sixth in the sprint race, so maybe they can be back in the frame. However, they do tend to drop the ball a bit too often in the scoring sessions.

Williams 

It was looking better for Williams a few weeks ago. Picking up a double points finish in Baku, but only one points finish from the last three races is a poor return. The car does look to have some potential, and Albon was an innocent victim in a first lap crash last weekend, but the competition has raised their games as well, so more points will be hard earned.

Sauber 

Bottas had a half decent weekend in Mexico, but in the end he qualified fifteenth and finished fourteenth. It is hard to see them scoring any points in 2024.

2024 Brazil GP: Summary

With Red Bull now a fading force, the battle for the Constructors’ Championship is between McLaren and Ferrari. McLaren’s momentum has slipped a little, not helped by Piastri’s dip in form, but the car is still capable of winning races between now and the end of the season, especially if the Australian can get back to the podium.

He would be better served by being a little slower in qualifying, but still using the car’s good race pace to make up ground in the race, rather than exceeding track limits and starting outside of the top 10.

For his part, Norris needs to find a way of either out qualifying Verstappen, and staying ahead at the start, or of passing him quickly in the race. The later will not be easy. Verstappen is prepared to accept penalties if it means stopping Norris winning the race.

Back To Back Ferrari

Ferrari have had back to back wins, but they have been greatly helped by Verstappen moving to block Norris, giving them breathing space to build up a defendable lead. Norris is fighting on two fronts, and he needs a wingman to help him out.

It is probably worth remembering that Piastri is only in his second season in F1, and that means he is still a bit green and a bit more likely to make mistakes. Ferrari have two very experienced divers and that is paying off for them.

At this stage, we have no confirmation of any grid penalties, for power unit changes, nor the weather forecast for Sunday in particular.

The fact that is another Sprint race weekend, means we do not have much in the way of free practice to get a grip on form before the competitive action starts. At least we are at a well-established venue, but with the track having been resurfaced, it has been materially changed, so the teams will have to build up new data banks.

Sprint Race Issues

The problem with these sprint race weekends is that we have two qualifying sessions, and two races. If we are having any ante post bets, do you back the same result in both the sprint format, and grand prix? You can then end up with a lot of bets, and if they are bad picks, it is doubly punishing.

For the outright race win markets, Norris is tempting at 3.00 for both. Since they got their first proper upgrade in Miami, Norris has been the second best qualifier, and he has had five poles in the last five races.

Red Bull have lost their best race pace, and It would seem that this is another Ferrari vs. McLaren weekend. On a track that will not play entirely to Ferrari’s strengths, McLaren may well have the best car this weekend.

But for Verstappen punting Norris off the track in the last two races, he could well have won both. The car still has that killer late stint speed, and with overtaking here quite possible, he can make that pay, should he not be leading from the front.

I am happy to leave the qualifying sessions alone for now. They are more competitive, and not very profitable.

Verstappen has won all four sprint races in 2024, and it could be that he can get away with running the soft tyre, which the Red Bull likes, on the short sprint race. If so, he could be in the mix on Saturday, but in a full length race, I don’t think so. I will go for Norris, but only for the Grand Prix, at this stage.

2024 Brazil GP Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to win the 2024 Brazil GP @ 3.00 generally available

I am keen to keep Kevin Magnussen on side this weekend. We have backed him for top 6 for the last two races, and come up short, if only narrowly in Mexico City. I will be more conservative this weekend. I don’t like backing a driver multiple times, but he does offer good value in a few markets this weekend, so I will just have to hope that I do not put the curse of the Punt Pound on him.

2024 Brazil GP Tip: 2 points Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points in the 2024 Brazil gp @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

The sprint race points only go down to eighth place, but Magnussen was eighth in the US GP sprint race and was seventh in the Mexico City GP last weekend, so Top 8 is not unrealistic.

2024 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points in the Sprint race @ 3.50 with Betfair

There will be updates for Sprint qualifying tomorrow, the Sprint race on Saturday, qualifying on Saturday, and the usual Race Day Update on Sunday.

-JamesPunt