2024 Brazil GP Qualifying Update & Tips – JP
2024 Brazil GP Qualifying Update
We were out of luck in the Sprint Race but we go again for qualifying. Check out James’ 2024 Brazil GP Qualifying preview and tips below.
2024 Brazil GP Qualifying Preview
With the Sprint part of the race behind us, the clocks are reset to zero, and we have a new event. The cars come out of parc ferme after the sprint race and the teams are free to make any changes they see fit. The form of the cars can now be different, depending on what the changes can do.
With the track being so bumpy, I suspect there will be a lot of ride heights going up. That usually means the cars will be slower, but more driveable. The Mercedes was particularly bad on the bumps and I would say that they will jack up the ride heights.
The cars that have been quick so far are less likely to be making big changes, just tweaks. McLaren got the front row lock out for the sprint and they are strong favourites to do so again.
Small Gaps
On a short track, the gaps between the cars is small. A tenth of a second can mean a few places lost, or made, so we cannot just copy and paste what happened in yesterday’s qualifying and project that onto today’s session.
We have had four sprint race weekends in 2024. Half of them saw the pole winner in the sprint shootout also getting the GP pole. The other two saw the fourth best driver jump to pole in the GP qualifying.
The second fastest car has carried that through twice, third once and from there down, it is unlikely that a driver will end up in the same place. Obviously making a big mistake can result a big drop, but other changes can be from things like set up alterations, track conditions, or just getting a good tow on your flying lap.
The trick for this session is not to be blinded by what we have learned so far, but not ignoring it either. I have just watched the sprint race and the brain tends to work from what it has just witnessed, but that has to be scrubbed.
The Big Picture
The big picture is that Lando Norris has been on GP pole in five of the last eight races. That he was on the front row yesterday suggests that he will be quick again. His final qualifying lap yesterday wasn’t his best either, so he has the potential to be faster than yesterday.
That McLaren got a 1-2 yesterday does suggest that their car is the quickest on this circuit. Piastri has not had a GP pole this season, and he has had three second places in the last eight. That suggests that Lando is your favourite.
He was hardly brimming with confidence after ‘winning’ the sprint race, and was worried that we might have some rain for qualifying, and that could mix things up. Norris is very good in the wet, so, It would not put me off making him favourite, but the odds would have to be bigger.
Showers
The weather forecast for the next few hours sees a 47% chance of showers at 3pm local time, falling to 12% by the end of the qualifying session. Air temperatures should drop by three or four degrees, so the track could be a little cooler as well. Accuweather is saying that we should see a light shower between the two sessions, but that the entire session could be affected by light rain. Two other forecasts are showing showers building in the area and the chances of rain for the session between 40-60%.
The forecast for Sunday is now looking quite bad. A total wet race is now a 90%+ chance, with some heavy rain possible. That can make racing here very difficult, and frankly not what we want.
Unpredictable
The uncertain forecast for this afternoon’s session makes it very difficult to make any confident predictions. We haven’t had much wet running in 2024. Canada and Britain both saw rain, but that was a while back, and things have moved on since then.
We last saw proper rain in the Netherlands FP1 and FP3 sessions. The car/team that stood out in those two sessions was Haas. That was the ‘old’ Haas, the pre-Texas upgrade car. Both cars were top 10 in the two wet sessions, Magnussen second fastest in FP3. The Sauber was also much more competitive with Bottas third in FP3, Zhou 11th and he was 10th in FP1.
FP3 in Belgium was wet, and Bottas popped up in eighth in that session and he is a good racer when the grip is low. The qualifying session was wet enough for intermediates to be used for the whole session. Bottas made it into Q2, which was not quite as wet, and he ended up fourteenth.
Sprint qualifying in China was a dry/wet sessions, and Bottas ended up ninth, in a Sauber. There is a theme building up here.
Volatile Weather
Since I started writing this, the forecast has changed, it is that volatile. There looks to be just a couple of light showers around. The session may well start with light rain, but quickly stopping, before returning for Q3. That said, it looks worse than that on TV.
The odds for the leading contenders are Norris 1.80, Piastri 4.50, Verstappen 6.00, Leclerc 10.00, Sainz 13.00, Russell 41.00 and Hamilton 51.00.
I would want something above evens before backing Norris, but he does look the most likely to get pole. Of course, a shower could mix things up. Max Verstappen has been very quick in the wet here and he makes some appeal at 6.00, but I am happy to give the pole position market a swerve today.
Given that Sunday’s race now looks very likely to be wet, I will have a speculative bet at big odds. I have highlighted that Bottas can be much more competitive in the wet. Rain is a good leveller and talented drivers in normally uncompetitive cars, can get a surprise result.
2024 Brazil GP Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point Bottas to finish in the points @ 21.00 generally available
Qualifying side markets
Pierre Gasly has been much more competitive since he got the upgraded Alpine in Texas. He qualified eighth there, was seventh in Mexico City, and seventh in yesterday’s sprint qualifying. He is 1.85 to make Q3 again, and if it was a dry, normal session, that would be a decent bet. But with torrential rain now falling on the track, all bets are off. Well almost.
I have to have a go with a silly big priced outsider to pull off a surprise. So long as we get a wet qualifying, and they do not delay it so long that we end up in the dry, I will have one bet for this session.
Lance Stroll may not be a great driver, but he is surprisingly good in the wet, he got a pole position in a wet Turkish GP a few years ago. I cannot see him doing that again, but he might be able to do something he has already done six times in 2024 and make it into Q3.
