2024 Brazil GP Sprint Qualifying Preview – JP
2024 Brazil GP Sprint Qualifying Preview
James Punt has already posted his outright preview, see that here. Check out James’ 2024 Brazil GP Sprint Qualifying preview and tips below.
2024 Brazil GP Sprint Qualifying
It is hard to read too much into the first, and only, free practice session. That the track has been resurfaced doesn’t help. It will just get faster and faster as more rubber goes down, and I imagine that this evening’s qualifying session will see everyone trying to go out as late as possible, to get the track at its best. That can lead to drivers finding traffic and it could get messy.
Max Verstappen has won all four sprint qualifiers in 2024. The ones earlier in the season were when he had a more competitive car, are understandable, but that he was still able to do it in Texas a couple of weeks ago, was indicative that he can wring a time out of the Red Bull.
Max was only fifteenth on the time sheet in FP1 today, but he backed out of his final flying lap after setting personal bests in the first two sectors. He would have been somewhere in the top 4 had he kept his foot down. Verstappen has a new engine for this weekend and will face a five place penalty on Sunday, but he will not be affected in the sprint part of this weekend. He is not out of the sprint pole running at all.
Norris Fastest
Lando Norris was quickest, 0.181 faster than George Russell in second, and 0.195 ahead of Oliver Bearman in the Haas. Bearman was not supposed to be running this weekend, but our man Magnussen was suffering with a tummy bug and was not fit to drive. Bearman will now do all the sprint running.
Magnussen may then get back into the car for GP qualifying and the race, but he would be getting into a car he had no part in setting up, and he would have done zero laps all weekend. If he doesn’t run, we get our money back, and that could actually be the best thing for us. The Haas looks to be rapid, both were top eight in FP1 and Bearman third fastest.
Bouncing Mercedes
The Mercedes, famously fast on Fridays, was on the pace, but the car was bouncing very badly. Hamilton said he was in pain as a result and Russell said that it was a really bumpy ride.
We have seen this before with the Mercedes. When they run it low to the ground, it is quick, but it then starts bouncing and that can make it hard for the drivers to trust in fast corners, not to mention being very demanding physically.
Ferrari were sixth and seventh and maybe the track is not as well suited to their strengths, but after just one session on an evolving track, it is hard to say.
I am not a big fan of having a timed session after just one session of practice, and more so on a newly resurfaced track, but the odds will decide if I am to be tempted.
Norris Is Fav
Norris is the 2.75 favourite, Verstappen 5.50. Leclerc and Sainz 6.50, Piastri 8.00, Russell and Hamilton 13.00. If you like a fairy tale bet, Oliver Bearman is 251.00.
The two prices which look interesting are Verstappen’s and Russell’s. Verstappen is four from four in sprint qualifiers in 2024. You have to respect that and don’t be fooled by the fact that he was just fifteenth in FP1. He lifted off and is still a live chance.
Friday is Mercedes’ day and Russell was right up there earlier. The car was unpleasant to drive, but he managed to put some quick laps in. It is doable over a few laps, so a qualifying session will be no more uncomfortable than it was in FP1.
Over a longer distance it is not viable. Certainly, if Hamilton was in pain at the end of this afternoon’s session, that suggests that even a sprint race might be too many laps being shaken to bits.
If Mercedes move towards driver comfort, it will slow the car down. It may be up to the drivers to decide. Take the pain and maybe get a good result or go for comfort and lose a few places. Russell was second in the sprint qualifying two weeks ago, missing out on pole by 0.012 seconds.
Bearman Worth a Punt
I am not going mad on this session, but there is one bet that stands out. Bearman has proven himself at this level already. He has the ability to jump in an F1 car at short notice and be competitive. He is quick and confident.
Bearman is also sitting a car that is a different beast than it was for most of the season. The Texas upgrade hit the bullseye and it is vying for top four, top five best car right now. Magnussen qualified eighth in it in Texas two weeks ago. Bearman must have a reasonable chance of repeating that today.
2024 Brazil GP Sprint Qualifying Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to reach Q3 @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes
As for the sprint pole, I will have a minimum stake e/w bet on Russell. He was so close two weeks ago and Friday is Mercedes’ day. The odds make it worth having a go.
