2024 British GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 British GP Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 British GP preview. We landed a couple of nice winners on raceday in Austria, hopefully we can nick a few more this weekend at Silverstone.
2024 British GP
First up is a little postmortem of the Austrian GP. Despite going big on Norris, we manged to clear a 3.05 point profit. It looked like we were going to collect on Norris to make it a very good weekend, but his multiple breaching of track limits did for his chances, even before his clash with Verstappen ended his race.
We had Russell to finish on the podium and that was never in doubt, once Piastri had his final qualifying run time deleted for breaking track limits.
This is becoming a bit of a feature of the 2024 season for McLaren. They have built a great, race winning car, but their execution is far from being the gold standard. Clearly, it is taking them time to adjust to racing at the sharp end.
Triple Header
The final leg of the triple header is the British GP, from the home of Formula 1, Silverstone. Apparently, this year is not a sellout. Silverstone bosses say it is the Verstappen effect, fans not going because they know Max wins. I would say that is bollocks, after all, it is not a given that Verstappen wins again this weekend.
Maybe it is because the cheapest 3 day tickets are £550? Maybe it is that the army of Hamilton fans are a little less reluctant to shell out the big bucks, if he is not going to win. After all, they have to save up for a whole new range of Hamilton/Ferrari merchandise for 2025, and that will cost a small fortune.
It will be interesting to see just who is the home fans’ favourite this weekend. It has been a fortress for Hamilton for years, but with Norris now the top Brit, who will get the biggest support?
The 2024 British GP Weather
Having shelled out a small fortune to get through the gates, the fans will be hoping that they are not going to get soaked and/or frozen in what has been a particularly crap British summer. Unfortunately, if you are going, pack a brolly.
Friday is set to be cloudy with a 90% chance of rain. Showers will be around for the whole day, with a max temperature of 19 degrees. The rain should only be light and certainly not requiring full wets.
Saturdays FP3 will see breezy conditions, cloudy, with a 60% chance of light showers. The qualifying session looks to be dry, partly sunny, but feeling cool at 16 degrees with a typical Silverstone breeze to make it feel chilly.
Raceday will see plenty of clouds, a high of 19 degrees, some light showers around, but not of any great significance. The chance of more light showers is only 10% in the afternoon.
A typical, crap, British summer weekend. Cool, breezy with occasional light showers all weekend.
The Track
Silverstone is an old school, fast and flowing circuit. A proper Formula 1 track, it is all about high speed performance.
There are eighteen corners, only four of which are on the slower side. The changes made to the track in 2010 did introduce a slower, technical part of the lap, corners 3-5, but after that the brakes are only required a further two times around the lap. Just little lifts on the throttle are enough to get through most corners here. There are four straights of note and this weekend is all about power and high speed aero efficiency.
The tyres get a good workout in terms of lateral loading through the fast, sweeping curves. It is a long lap at nearly 6 km, in stark contrast to last weekend’s Red Bull Ring. Such is the lateral loading here that we have had tyres exploding in the past and Pirelli have had to beef up their tyres’ design to meet the demands of Silverstone.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Despite Verstappen ending up just fifth in Austria, his grip on the Drivers’ Championship and Red Bull’s lead in the Constructors’ Championship, strengthened. Lando Norris remains in second place, but he is now eighty one points behind Max Verstappen.
It was a strange weekend in Austria. So close in the sprint shootout, but Verstappen was way faster in qualifying proper and was heading for a comfortable Grand Prix win before a sticky wheel nut and bit of traffic turned a six second lead into a fierce battle for the lead. The Red Bull will be as well suited to this track as it was to the Red Bull ring.
Verstappen has won two Silverstone GPs and been second twice. The out of form Sergio Perez only has the one podium finish here.
McLaren
Piastri’s second place in Austria was the team’s fifth second place in the last five races. They have not quite been able to make the top step since the Miami GP, but they are the team that is putting the pressure on Red Bull.
Lando Norris has only finished outside the top 10 once at Silverstone and his best result was second place last year. Oscar Piastri was fourth on debut last year.
It looks very likely that this weekend will be another Verstappen vs. McLaren battle. The McLaren has been very quick in fast corners and it will be well suited to the demands of this circuit.
Ferrari
Recent races have seen Ferrari drop down the pecking order. It seems their car is not greatly suited by proper races tracks. They finished fifth and sixth in Barcelona which is a good measuring stick. Last weekend, Sainz was back on the podium, but he was the beneficiary of Verstappen and Norris crashing.
The Ferrari power unit is very good at powering out of slow corners, hence the easy win at Monaco, but it is losing out at the end of the longer straights compared to its closest rivals. This would seem to be another track which is not going to play to Ferrari’s strengths.
Carlos Sainz won here two years ago, helped by Verstappen struggling with a damaged car. Leclerc has racked up three podium finishes here, but I suspect that Ferrari may find themselves bettered by Verstappen, McLaren and Mercedes this weekend.
Upgrades
Ferrari are to stick with their recent upgrades and will use the first two practice sessions as an extended test to try and get the new floor to work properly. The upgrade has added downforce, but the car is bouncing again, especially in the high speed corners, and there are plenty here.
Porpoising has largely been dialled out of all the cars by now, but this latest upgrade has knocked Ferrari back to the bad old days. If they can fix the porpoising, that doesn’t mean that the Ferrari will be fully competitive, but it would be better. If they can’t fix it, this will be a long weekend.
Mercedes
The once dominant force here, winning eight of the last twelve races (we had two in 2020). Lewis Hamilton has won eight British GPs and in the turbo hybrid era, he won seven and has never finished outside of the podium positions.
They no longer have the best car and he is no longer the dominant force in his own team, so keeping that record going will be hard, but not impossible. Russell’s best finish was his fifth place last year.
The Mercedes has improved quite dramatically in recent races. They have had a driver on the podium in the last three races, which tells us that another is possible. The car does remain a couple of tenths off the pace of McLaren and Verstappen.
Podium Possible
Perez’ loss of form is opening up the podium places, but their biggest threat to getting another podium, is Piastri. If the Aussie can do a solid job in qualifying, he will be right in the mix for a podium, along with Verstappen and Norris.
Russell’s win in Austria was lucky. He would not have won had Verstappen and Norris not tangled and had Piastri not been dropped to seventh on the grid for a very marginal breach of track limits, it is likely that it would have been the Australian who would have picked up the win.
Aston Martin
A big home race for the Silverstone based team. Sadly, they cannot be fancied to have good one. They have failed to score a point in three of the last four races. In qualifying they have failed to get a car into Q3 in five of the last six races.
They did not expect to enjoy Austria and also acknowledged that Silverstone would be another tough one. On current form, they are not the fifth best team.
Alonso says it is not just a set up problem, but a car problem, and that takes longer to fix. Alonso will also be using a power unit that has one more race before it is out of the pool. That will cost a little more performance.
Visa RB
Ricciardo managed to finish ninth in Austria, which was a good performance in a car that does look to have gone backwards since their big upgrade in Barcelona. They have been helped by Aston Martin’s struggles, but they were beaten by both Haas cars last Sunday.
They remain hard to fancy until they can get their upgrade to work.
Haas
Finishing sixth and eighth in Austria was a great result for Haas. Scoring twelve points means they have scored more points after eleven races in 2024, than they did for the whole season last year.
They are now eleven points behind Visa RB and with the Aston Martins and Visa RBs both struggling for form, the door is open for Haas to steal some more points. Their car hasn’t gotten any better, but the opposition has got worse.
Hulkenberg has a very good record at Silverstone with seven top 10 finishes since 2024. Magnussen has had two top 10s, but more worryingly, no less than four DNFs. Hulkenberg can be fancied for another top 10.
Alpine
Managed to pick up one point last weekend. Gasly now has four consecutive points finishes. Like Haas, Alpine are being helped by the struggles of Aston Martin and Visa RB. They did benefit from the retirement of Norris and they didn’t look that good in Austria. They will be knocking on the door of the top 10, but perhaps Haas makes more appeal.
Williams
Still just have just the one top 10 finish in 2024. Sergeant must be fearing getting the boot mid-season, but the car is far from good, so it is not all his fault.
Albon finished eighth here last year for Williams. Last year’s car had prodigious straight line speed and Albon managed to qualify tenth in Montreal a few weeks ago, another track dominated by straights.
Silverstone may offer Albon a better chance, compared to Austria or Spain, but will it have the downforce to handle the fast corners? I suspect not.
Kick Sauber F1
Pointless in every sense of the word. Bottas has five podium finishes at Silverstone, but he is very unlikely to be a feature in the top 10 this year. Zhou is now the worst qualifier on the grid, even worse than Sargeant.
2024 British GP: Summary
We are now used to the Grand Prix weekends featuring a Verstappen vs. Norris battle. So far, it is the Red Bull/Verstappen combination which is usually coming out on top.
Norris had two bites at the cherry in Austria, but he let Verstappen through rather tamely in the sprint race, and in the Grand Prix, Verstappen was prepared to make contact to stop Norris getting past.
Red Bull and Verstappen have won the last three championships, they are used to fighting for race wins. Verstappen is not above getting dirty to protect his position. Norris is going to have to be a bit more robust and that probably means that they are going to crash again at some point. If they do, that opens the race to those chasing behind. Hence Russell’s win in Austria.
We should consider the likes of Piastri, Russell and Hamilton as drivers who could inherit a win and at decent odds. Perez’ form is too poor to include him and the two Ferraris don’t make the shortlist until the car is sorted.
Norris Expensive To Follow
I have been tipping and mostly losing with Norris in recent races. He has been very close, probably should have won a couple more races than he has, but his odds are now reflecting the fact that he is now the number 1 challenger to Verstappen.
This time last year we had Verstappen on pole, followed by the two McLarens, the two Ferraris and then the two Mercedes. Perez was a distant fifteenth. It is not hard to see that grid repeated this weekend, just swapping the Ferraris and Mercedes around. The race finished with Verstappen 3.78s ahead of Norris, Hamilton in third, Piastri fourth.
It was the first time that Piastri got to use the upgraded McLaren and gave him his best result to date at that point. He has had three second place finishes since then and he will pick up a win at some point.
Silverstone is very likely to be Piastri’s most raced track as he has raced here in Formula Renault, Formula 3, Formula 2 (he was Champion in all three formulas), and now one Formula 1. All the drivers know it well, but it should help Piastri that he knows the track like the back of his hand.
Max The Fav
Verstappen is the 1.62 favourite to win the British GP, Norris 4.00, Piastri 15.00, Russell 17.00 and Hamilton 19.00.
Russell was the beneficiary of the Verstappen – Norris clash in Austria, but it was harsh that it wasn’t Piastri, who had his third place in qualifying disallowed for a very marginal track limits violation. That dropped him four places.
For small stakes, I’ll take a chance with Piastri. I expect him to win a race this season and, on a track where he has won in the junior formulas, Silverstone seems a suitable venue. He performed well in Austria, finishing second in the Sprint race and the Grand Prix.
2024 British GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Oscar Piastri to win the British GP @ 15.00 generally available
Outside of the battle for the win, there looks to be a good opportunity for Haas to add to their points tally. They may well be the fifth best team this weekend.
Aston Martin are adrift of the top ten places on these fast tracks, and Alpine are not entirely convincing. The French team have been the more regular top 10 finishers, but they needed some luck last weekend and were very much second best to Haas.
Nico Hulkenberg has always gone well here with seven top tens. He was only thirteenth last year, his worst result here outside of one DNF. Hulkenberg had qualified in eleventh, but last year’s Haas was a trye eater over race distances. That is not the case this season, and if he can qualify near the top ten, or in it, he is more than good enough to bring it home in the points.
2024 British GP Tip: 2 points Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 2.00 generally available
At the risk of putting too many eggs in the Haas basket, the odds for them to have another double points finish does look attractive. They have only managed it twice in 2024, but they do seem to have something of an open goal this weekend. Magnussen needs to have a good qualifying again, and then not go mental in the race, but I will risk a point.
