2024 British GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 British GP Qualifying preview. He has already posted an outright preview, you can read that here.

2024 British GP Qualifying Update

It would seem that the weather is going to play a part in qualifying…or maybe not. Such is the nature of the showery weather at Silverstone today. The F3 race was unable to be run this morning and the FP3 session was a wet one.

It was beginning to dry a little in the middle of the session, but never enough for slick tyres. The rain returned and the lap times could not be improved on.

The times from the session are not that important, unless we get the same conditions for qualifying. The two Mercedes topped the time sheet with near identical times. Norris was third and then a big gap to Sainz in fourth.

As I say, the times are a bit meaningless. Whoever was out on the track when the track was developing a dry line set the better times. Once it got wet again, the times got slower.

McLaren Fastest When Dry

In the dry yesterday, Norris topped both sessions with Piastri third and second. Verstappen was never better than fourth but with rain always a threat, the teams were doing different things and different times, and I do not think that the Red Bull is off the pace. Perez was third in FP2 and said that the car felt good, especially in the high speed corners. If Perez can get it to third, the car is fine.

In the dry, the Mercedes looked to be a bit off the pace, along with the Ferrari. But that was Friday, and everyone tweaks the set up overnight.

The latest weather forecast for qualifying is that the rain is due to stop around 2pm, but there is a good chance of another shower shortly before the start of qualifying. That should be that rain wise. The cloud will lift and we should even see some sun. If so, the track will dry quite quickly.

Low Temperatures

The temperature will remain low. Maybe 13 degrees air temperature. In FP3 the track temperature was around sixteen degrees, very low, and getting enough heat into the tyres was hard, meaning that the grip levels were very low. It wasn’t just the rain, it was the temperature. Any sunshine will warm the track up, maybe ten degrees or more. That should improve grip and lap speeds.

The teams have a difficult decision to make before qualifying starts. Whatever set up they put on the car is set for the race. Some minor changes to ride heights and wing settings can be made if the race is declared wet before the start tomorrow, but if you expect a wet race, then you need a wet weather set up put on the car now. If qualifying is then dry, you will give up performance and grid position.

The engineers will have to sit down with all the weather forecasts they can get, and then make a decision. It is a bit of a gamble.

Sunday Forecast

The forecast for Sunday at 3pm is unsettled. Partly sunny with a 55% chance of showers, some of them thundery. The conditions will improve as the race progresses. It could be that the showers miss the track and we get an entirely dry race, or it could start with a thunderstorm.

Good luck to the engineers who have to make the call. Some of the midfield teams could take a gamble and go for a full dry set up and get those conditions. I suspect the leading teams will at least lean towards a wet setting.

It is not a satisfactory position for betting, but like the engineers, I have to make my best guess as to this afternoon’s weather. The F2 race was started on a wet track, there was a rolling start, but the race was red flagged due to the amount of water on the track. It is hard to imagine that the track could be dry, or no more than damp, but that is the forecast and the weather radar backs it up.

Mostly Dry Qualifying

A largely dry qualifying is the call, but we don’t know how the teams will set the car up, with a reasonable chance of showers for the race. There is the chance that one or two teams go for a completely dry set up and they could hit the bullseye, but we just don’t know.

There is an additional level of uncertainty for this session. We may be told afterwards how the various teams set their cars up, but not going into this qualifying session.

It comes down to the individual punter’s levels of risk aversion. The more conservative will happily sit the session out. There will be plenty more chances to bet in sessions with less risk. The more reckless punter may want to back an outsider or two and hope to get lucky at bigger odds.

Wide Open

The betting is wide open for today’s qualifying session. Verstappen is available at 3.25, Norris 3.80, Hamilton 6.00, Russell 6.50, Piastri 13.00. both Ferraris 26.00 and Perez 81.00.

Generous odds on Verstappen given his record in 2024, but he has not been better than fourth in any session so far. Norris has been fastest in two sessions and third in the other. The two Mercs were very close in the wet today.

It is dry, and I am going to say that it will be that at least for Q2 and Q3, then it looks like a Norris, Verstappen and maybe Piastri as the likely contenders. Norris is 8-3 in qualifying against his teammate and he gets the nod in that respect. Verstappen is 9-2 with Norris in 2024, but 2-2 in the last four.

The value looks to be with Norris in my book.

2024 British GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.80 with SpreadEx

High risk gamblers may be looking at Nico Hulkenberg. The Haas driver set the fourth fastest time in FP2 yesterday in the dry, and we know that Haas are prepared to roll the dice, as we saw in the rain in Canada when they alone started on full wets and stormed through the field, until the track dried.

He is as low as 34.00 to be the fastest qualifier, with best odds of 81.00. He is a driver who can pull out great laps in mixed conditions, but I would say that the conditions are not likely to give him that chance. As the F2 race is coming to a conclusion, the clouds are breaking up, there is some blue sky, as per the forecast.

I am happy to leave it at that for now. Race day update tomorrow, hopefully an hour or so before the off.

-JamesPunt