2024 British GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 British GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 British GP Raceday preview. Lando Norris blew another big chance for pole in qualifying, hopefully this afternoon’s bets can get the job done.
2024 British GP Raceday Update
The first thing to address is the weather. The weekend has been dominated by showers, but by and large, the F1 sessions have avoided the worst of things. If you have been watching the F3 and F2 races, you will have been entertained.
This morning’s F3 race was full on nuts. The rain was on and off and off and on. Two drivers started on slicks and immediately raced through the field, one into first place. Some wet shod drivers dived into the pits for slicks, and then it started raining.
The slick runners dropped back, but then the rain stopped and they came racing back up. The driver who had led, but dropped back to around seventeenth, still on slicks, made his way back into the lead, where he finished, only to get a 10 second penalty, knocking him back to third place.
Now, the rain was never really heavy, but heavy enough to make a difference. In the end, being brave, and patient, paid off for Callum Voisin, who started and finished on slicks, crossed the line in first and was the moral winner.
Will we see similar conditions for the Grand Prix? Maybe.
More Showers
The forecasts are all saying showery weather for this afternoon, but the Met Office says there will be a two hour break in the showers around the time of the race. I find the Met Office to be one of the worst forecasters to follow.
Accuweather, normally very good, are forecasting a dry start, but for showers to hit the area during the race. Other forecasters are just saying a 60-70% chance of showers during the race. The best word I have seen to describe todays Grand Prix weather is….complex. Closely followed by ‘a lottery’.
I think we can safely say that any rain will be showery in nature. We will not get a wet race, but we may well see showers. Enough to force the drivers onto wet weather tyres? Who knows.
It remains quite windy and that means that any rain showers that hit the track are likely to be passing through quickly. Conditions could go from dry to wet, to dry again quite quickly.
Tough For Strategists
It could be a nightmare for the strategists and drivers to make the call about whether to stay out, or pit for a change. It could also mean seeing drivers spinning out, trying to hang on to slicks on a wet track. Basically, it has all the ingredients for chaos. But, then again, the Met Office might be spot on, and we get a dry two hour window.
The weather forecast does hold out hope that we may get a classic, mixed up race, but being able to predict the results in a chaotic situation is, of course, improbable.
The best betting advice is to sit back and enjoy the race but keep your money in your wallet. Which is also very boring. The problem is that I have no real idea of who could go particularly well in the wet. We know that Hamilton, Verstappen and Norris are all very good wet weather racers. We also know that George Russell can be mistake prone under the cosh.
But the weather is not just going to be a test of the drivers if we get a wet track, it is about luck, timing, strategy and the stewards not making crap judgements.
Tyres Key
The best car in the wet is the one on the right tyres at the right time, but also one that produces lots of downforce and does so at lower speeds than usual. The McLarens’ recent upgrades addressed a lack of downforce at low speeds. Indeed they achieved more than they expected.
The Ferrari is more competitive at slower speeds, it has great traction out of slow corners. That isn’t of much use here at Silverstone, but in the wet? Maybe it will.
It really could be a bit of a lottery.
We have had one race this season that was wet. The Canadian GP, eventually won by Max Verstappen. It should have been won by Lando Norris, but McLaren didn’t get their strategy spot on.
Whether they were just unlucky, or a bit reactive rather than proactive, is a matter of debate. Whatever it was, they failed to get the win…. again. It is becoming a bit of a firm trend in 2024. Lando Norris almost….Norris nearly….
I have no faith that the McLaren/Norris combination can pull it off in a straightforward race, in a chaotic one? Well, I suppose they could get lucky for once.
Old Heads
My head says that wise old heads like Hamilton and Verstappen are the ones to be on if things go a bit Radio Rental. Even Alonso could make progress in a mixed up race. They have been there, seen that, and so have their pit wall people. Being able to keep calm and clear headed could be well rewarded.
Which may help our e/w ante post selection, Oscar Piastri. The guy barely has a pulse. He doesn’t do flustered. He starts a disappointing fifth, but he is not out of it yet. However, he is in a McLaren, so not the best strategists.
Hungarian Repeat?
We could have the kind of race in the nature of the 2021 Hungarian GP. That was won by Esteban Ocon in an Alpine. He lined up eighth on the grid but benefited from a wet start and a first corner crash fest which wiped out four cars and mortally wound another two.
Lewis Hamilton had started on pole but he and Mercedes made a rare mistake by starting the restarted race on inters, while the rest of the field pitted for slicks. Hamilton had to do a lap on the wrong tyres and dropped down the field. He eventually recovered to finish second, but he was ultimately foiled by being held up by Ocon’s than teammate, Fernando Alonso.
2024 British GP Raceday Summary
The weather conditions are not good for punting. They are good if you like a gamble. If you are happy to lose in the hope that you could buy a winning ticket, this is the kind of race for you. Or, it could turn out fine after all and be a dry squib.
I started writing this piece at 10.00am. By noon, the met office have changed their forecast to a dry afternoon, partly cloudy, but only a 10% chance of rain. Accuweather have a 40% chance of rain, most likely in the second half of the race. But as I type, it is lashing down for the Porsche race. It is as clear as soup.
Hamilton Could Go Well
One driver who makes some sort of sense for a race winner bet is Lewis Hamilton. He has won eight times around this track in F1 and he has won on it in the wet. His experience is worth much gold in these situations.
He also starts from second place, and three of the last seven races here have been won from second place (three from pole and one from fourth). Max Verstappen starts from fourth. His Red Bull will have been repaired overnight and he will be back to full speed today. However, he has not been any better than fourth all weekend.
George Russell doesn’t get my vote if we get a mixed up race. He just doesn’t inspire much confidence when it comes to being mistake free. Russell has started from pole position twice and finished both in third, including this year’s rain affected Canadian GP.
Lando Norris is the gold standard for underachieving. Out of the front two rows, Hamilton makes the most sense, and he is fourth favourite at 6.00.
2024 British GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to win @ 6.00 with Betfred, Unibet, Livescorebet
Drawing some inspiration from the Canadian GP, we saw Alpine get a double points finish, despite starting fifteenth and eighteenth. They were helped by five retirements, but that is what can happen when the track gets wet.
Nico Hulkenberg started seventeenth, but finished eleventh, largely thanks to the retirements, but also because the team rolled the dice and started on full wets, while the rest floundered on inters. It was a nice try, but not brilliantly executed in the end, as they left him out on the wets for too long.
We have already invested two points on Hulkenberg to finish in the points, and one more on a double points finish for Haas, the latter looking weak thanks to another qualifying flop by Magnussen.
Experienced Hulk
The Hulk is a very experienced driver, and quick. If I was to have a ‘lottery ticket’ bet, he would be the one. He starts from a very creditable sixth place and we know that Haas can be creative strategy wise. Perhaps they will be more conservative with Hulkenberg this time, but do not be surprised to see them doing something with Magnussen if we get changeable conditions
I really do not like backing a driver multiple times in a race as it usually ends badly. However, it looks like we may have one of those races where we could get a surprise result.
An Ocon moment, Gasly winning the 2020 Italian GP for Alpha Tauri, Vettel winning the 2008 Italian GP for the same team (different name), Panis winning the 1996 Monaco GP. Rain was a common factor in three of those races.
I have happy memories of the 2008 Italian GP having tipped up Vettel for pole position at 101.00. I didn’t back him for the race as the forecast was for a dry race, qualifying was wet, but it turned out to be wet again, and Vettel won at 51.00, from pole! I will throw some loose change at Hulkenberg, in the full knowledge that he now crashes out on lap 1.
2024 British GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Nico Hulkenberg to win @ 151.00 generally available
I am not really minded to play in the side markets with so much uncertainty around the weather. In situations like this, it is best to not have many bets and any you do, make it small stakes on big odds, and hope to get lucky.
With that in mind, I will have one last bet which has absolutely no chance of winning in the dry, but just might if we get a really mixed up race, one where just being on track when the chequered flag falls may be enough.
Bottas knows his way to the podium at Silverstone (five times on the podium, never the winner) and seven times in the points. His best finish this season is two thirteenth place finishes, one in the rain affected Canadian GP. He thrives in low grip situations but he is in the worst car on the grid, so this is another lose change bet at fancy odds.
