2024 Canadian GP Qualifying Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Canadian GP Qualifying Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Canadian GP qualifying preview. Our FP1 bet came a cropper in a session that was badly marred by the weather, fingers crossed we can get back on track in Montreal tonight.
2024 Canadian GP Qualifying
Friday’s Free Practice sessions told us little more than the weather in Montreal is unsettled.
One of the drawbacks of the F1 sustainability measures is that when we have a race weekend with an unsettled forecast, there are not enough wet weather tyres to last for three practice sessions, qualifying and the race. That means the drivers sit in garage, doing nothing. The paying public sit in the stands, getting wet and very little for their money.
There was some almost meaningful running in FP2. The first 30 minutes or so went from damp to quite dry, before the rain returned and the drivers had to go back on inters.
Alonso was quickest and his teammate, Canadian Lance Stroll, was third. Of course, the team being Canadian owned might suggest that the Aston Martin was out on fumes with the power units turned up. It could be suggested that Alonso was third in a wet qualifying here last year and finished the race in second place. Stroll also got a top 10. It could be that the Aston is just a good car in the wet.
New Tarmac
The new tarmac on the track looked to be good. It looked nice and level, with few bumps. It also dried quickly. The air temperature was a round twenty degrees which helped, and if there is any sun, it will change form fully wet to dry very quickly.
If we do get mixed conditions on Sunday, we could see a lot of pit-stops and strategy will play a big part. The track surface is smooth, not abrasive, and that should help the tyres last well.
However, it is still green and if the cars start to slide, that can overheat the rubber and cause thermal degradation, so we are still a bit in the dark in that department.
FP3 was the first fully dry session of the weekend and it has left me more than a little confused.
Team-by-Team Practice Report
Red Bull
It was hard to gather much about their pace on Friday, as was the case for everyone, but Verstappen’s day was ended early with a car fire, caused by a faulty energy recovery system. Nothing to do with the kerbs, or the weather.
The car looked competitive before the problem with the power unit, but obviously a rare technical failure is a concern. Verstappen only got 14 laps completed across the two sessions, so he started the weekend on the back foot. There was not a huge amount of lappery for anyone, so he didn’t lose out as much as he would have on a ‘normal’ Friday.
The team have changed Verstappen’s power unit as a precautionary measure. He ended FP3 in second place, albeit a fairly distant second place. Sergio Perez doesn’t go well here and he is struggling again. Just making Q3 is going to be marginal for him.
Ferrari
Looked competitive, as expected, on Friday. They were also one of two teams who didn’t use the soft tyre for that nearly dry FP2 session. They, and McLaren, used the medium tyres to set their best time.
Leclerc was 0.75 or so off the top, and he would have been closer had the soft tyre been on, but we can’t pay much heed to the actual times due to the conditions. Leclerc started FP2 on the inters but took to the track before the stewards had declared a wet track.
You can’t use the inters before it is declared wet, and he may face a penalty of some sort, but hopefully not any kind of grid drop (a $5000 fine has been handed down).
FP3 saw Ferrari right off the pace. It was telling that Leclerc said over the radio, ‘we are really slow’. Leclerc ended up tenth, 0.800 off the best time. Sainz was further back in twelfth. That is a complete head scratcher, but it is hard to fancy their chances now.
McLaren
Like Ferrari, McLaren choose to save the soft tyres on Friday. The car looked good in the wet but their straight line speed was not good when the track was at its driest. They will need to address that in time for Sunday.
In FP3 Piastri was fifth, Norris seventh and both over 0.7s off the best time. That is a lot on what is a shortish lap.
Mercedes
Not for the first time, Hamilton was full of praise for the car. Was it another Friday special, or are they getting there with the upgrades? It is hard to tell, but we have seen them being good on Fridays but slipping down the order come the business end of the weekend.
Their straight line pace was decent, which is important on this track. Neither driver ran with the new front wing, a sign that they do not have enough spares to risk running them in wet practice.
FP3 saw Hamilton topping the time sheet, and by a margin of 0.374. George Russell was in third place, 0.408 off Hamilton. This is as big a head scratcher as Ferrari being so far off the pace. Both cars ran the new wing today, which will have helped, but nobody was laying a glove on Hamilton’s time.
Aston Martin
It seems their car can get heat into the tyres quickly and that is a big advantage in the wet/damp conditions of yesterday. They proved to be competitive in the wet here last year and if we get a wet qualifying session, expect this team to overperform. A dry session and race would be a different matter.
In the warm and sunny FP3, the Aston Martin looked much less impressive, in the end. At the start of the session both drivers looked very competitive, but on the soft tyres and low fuel, Alonso ended up eighth and Stroll a decent fourth. Another head scratcher.
Visa RB
Another solid display on Friday. The car seems to get the tyres warmed up quickly which will be very useful if we get a wet qualifying session. Ricciardo has been the faster of the two drivers, and it is a track he likes.
Alpine
Slow on the straights but reasonably competitive in the wet. A wet race would paper over the cracks, but with a five place grid penalty for Ocon, this looks like a tricky weekend ahead or the team.
The dry FP3 session saw the two drivers in sixteenth for Gasly, nineteenth for Ocon. At least one team who are on script.
Williams
They didn’t show the kind of straight line speed which helped Albon to points here last year, but they looked in decent shape in FP2.
FP3 saw both drivers well up the time sheet. Yes, even Sargeant was showing top 10 speed. However, it all went south in the soft tyre, low fuel runs. Albon hit the Wall of Champions, breaking his suspension and he ended up eighteenth, Sargeant fourteenth. They should have the pace to break out of Q1, but their ultimate pace is anybody’s guess.
Haas
Hulkenberg was second in qualifying here last year but got a 3 place penalty. Last year’s Haas was very quick to heat the tyres up in qualifying, to the point of being detrimental in the race, but it was a handy quality in the wet. This version doesn’t have the same characteristic, but you can’t rule out Hulkenberg getting into Q3.
FP3 saw Magnussen eleventh and Hulkenberg back in seventeenth. Hulkenberg usually goes well here, and I still expect him to out qualify his teammate again. Making Q3 looks unlikely.
Kick Sauber F1
Friday was mixed day. Bottas showed decent pace in the wet and he does like a low grip surface. Zhou crashed out in FP1, causing a red flag. There was also a problem with a wheel change for Bottas. That was something the team said they had fixed, but it seems maybe not. Rain may help Bottas get out of Q1 but the car is not competitive.
FP3 saw Zhou crashing again. He had only manged three laps before he spun off at low speed, but enough to end his session. Bottas finished a respectable thirteenth.
2024 Canadian GP Qualifying Summary
Sometimes you just find yourself stumped. I would not have predicted Hamilton finishing FP3 on top of the pile, and by a big margin. He does have a very good record here, and we have backed him to beat Russell, but he has now put himself firmly in the mix for pole. He may even be the man to beat. Possibly.
What we have here is a newly resurfaced track. That track has been subjected to a lot of rain. It is very green.
The teams got very little meaningful running on Friday and with just a couple of hours between FP3 and qualifying, they do not have the luxury of getting the overnight sim teams at the factory to crunch the data and come up with any solutions.
This is now down to the track side operations to do the donkey work and try and get their set ups right for qualifying, and the race. Nobody is quite sure about the track and how it will evolve, so it is a very confusing set of circumstances.
Changes Being Made
Changes will be being made as I write. Somebody might hit the jackpot, others may get lost. Throw an uncertain weather forecast into the mix and you have a perfect storm of confusion. It is very probably a qualifying session to sit out betting wise.
Max Verstappen is the 2.62 favourite. He has seven of the eight pole positions this season, and that might be a steal. However, he hasn’t looked particularly comfortable so far.
Lewis Hamilton has a best qualifying position of seventh in 2024, and is 1-7 against his teammate. Hamilton is a 6.00 shot and he is a track specialist. The car has been upgraded once more and he was comfortably fastest in FP3, the only real performance session of the weekend.
Of course, in Monaco, Hamilton told us that he would not out qualify his teammate for the remainder of the season. If so, George Russell could be our man at 23.00. It is all as clear as soup.
Three Options
We have three options. Sit it out, or go with what your eyes have just observed, or hope that rain might really throw a spanner in the works and throw some shrapnel at outsiders. It is difficult.
Predicting showery weather is a nightmare. The radar is showing rain in and around the track later. It looks like if we do get any, it may be for Q3.
I am going to have on bet on Hamilton, and a mad one on Lance Stroll. Hamilton was blindingly quick in FP3, and the Aston was very competitive in the wet. Stroll is not a great driver, but he is much better in the wet. He has one pole position to his credit, and that was in the wet, on a newly resurfaced track in Turkey in 2020.
2024 Canadian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to be the fastest qualifier @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes, Boylesports, Betfair, Skybet
2024 Canadian GP Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point Lance Stroll to be fastest qualifier @ 71.00 with Betfair
Match Betting
In the same frame, we are seeing some strange H2H performances so far. Hamilton has been better than Russell in two of the three sessions, and the only one that really counts, FP3. We have backed him for pole and that is enough on Hamilton for now.
The one I like is Ricciardo vs. Tsunoda. In 2024 Tsunoda is 7-1 vs. Ricciardo, but it is the Aussie who has been faster in all three sessions so far and by a decent margin in FP3.
Tsunoda is complaining of a lack of rear end grip and that that might be fixable between sessions. However, at his best, Ricciardo is a great late braker, as is Hamilton. Ricciardo has a good record here and it is a track were good late braking is rewarded.
If you are confident on the brakes, you can make up quite a bit of time into the slow corners here. It may not be a coincidence that both Hamilton and Ricciardo are overperforming. I was hoping for better odds, but I’ll take them.
